With the end of the regular season comes a time for reflection for the majority of baseball fans. What went right? What went wrong? You probably have a few ideas where your teams fell short or exceeded expectations, but what about a completely objective point of view? Throughout this season I have shown what batter and pitcher production looks like when we regress balls in play to look more like what the players should have seen using exit velocity and launch angle. The offseason will be no different as I take a team-by-team look at how the season fared for the club, while going a little deeper on players who were selected in the 2 Early Mock Draft. Provided there is a decent amount of history worth looking into. Player analysis will run from 2015 to present regardless of employer.
The order of release is the reverse of the final season ranking report so you can expect to find some depression leading to elation here. A quick review of that previous post can also give you a good idea of how a team rates compared to their peers as these analyses will focus upon each individual team. Lastly, playoff data has been included, which will not impact the first dozen or so teams, but does factor into league averages, and is included within player analysis. It’s going to take some time, but I would like to get one to two of these out each week which should allow for every team being covered before our glorious game returns to continue threshing our hearts.
COL BOS DET MIA PIT TEX ARI SEA KCR BAL WAS STL HOU CHC CWS LAA TOR NYM SFG MIN
Team Batter Production & Discipline
Throughout the first half the offense of the Philadelphia Phillies was consistently above average rarely taking a day off. The second half showed much more volatility that did lead to peaks pushing a bit higher, but also deeper troughs that blew right through the average. Some of the unevenness can be explained by injury as Jay Bruce dealt with a nagging quad issue less than a month into the season that lingered the rest of the way including two trips to the injured list. Scott Kingery joined him during the first stint as he would miss two weeks with back spasms, but the must bigger blow came when Rhys Hoskins fielded an errant throw up the line that took him into the runner. The resulting collision saw damage to his non-throwing elbow requiring surgery and ending his season. His big bat was missed over the final two weeks. Strikeouts pushed higher during that time later in the season, which wasn’t unprecedented territory, but previous forays were brief. The rest of the time the team ran better than average strikeout rates, which generally paired well with above average to strong walk rates.
Batter Seasonal Line
When the Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330M contract they had hoped to fill both rightfield and the middle of their order for the next decade, and that’s mostly what they have gotten so far. The short season saw him kill righties at one of the best rates in the league, while more than holding his own against same-handed lefties. Not missing time during these first two years has helped him maximize production with 2020 serving to push the curve outward instead of merely shifting along itself. Walking more than he struck out when having the platoon advantage is a wonderful floor, and that he brought absurd expected production on contact shouldn’t be an out and out surprise. His actual production on balls in play fell a good deal short of the prodigious underlying data, but did come in a bit higher against lefties. Expected production fell a bit, but still came in well above average, and while he walks even more often he also struck out nearly twice as often against southpaws. In all he walked more than he struck out while flexing incredible production on contact that he fell short of to look more like a very good hitter in reality.
A driving force behind the lesser performance later was the loss of Rhys Hoskins who required Tommy John surgery following his collision. He lost a quarter of the season, but foiled nicely with Harper creating one of the better 1-2 punches in the game. He incinerated lefties walking almost three times as often as he struck out, but also showing above average expected production on contact that played even better in reality. The strikeout rate nearly tripled when facing righties, but he mitigated that damage with a well above average walk rate and similar expected contact to how he hit lefties. It didn’t show up as well, but upon regression he ended up hitting right-handers quite as well, but still a good chunk above average.
The ACL tear that derailed a promising 2019 left many questions in the air for Andrew McCutchen in this past season, most of which he seemed to answer well by once again playing almost every day, and typically at an above average level. He struck out at similar, better than average rates against both hands, though the walk rate against lefties more than doubled his below average rate against lefties. Again, production on contact ran much better against lefties from both perspectives allowing him to be very productive with the platoon advantage. He slipped closer to average against same-handers due to the weaker production that the expected lens saw as above average, but presented well below. On the other end of the age spectrum we find Alec Bohm who had a strong debut. The later promotion cut into his workload, but when out there he hit both hands fairly well with solidly average walk rates and well above average expected production on contact. He struck out more against righties, but also hit them a bit harder. The discipline profile gave him a high offensive floor, but the very good production on contact made him look like a near-term star on the come.
For all the capital they spent to acquire him, it was two very strong seasons from J.T. Realmuto that, alas, was not enough to get them over the hump even with expanded playoffs. He now exits stage left into free agency where the Phillies remain as well-positioned as any club to secure his services long into the future. The platoon split was fairly wide last year as he feasted on lefties, but fell to the pack against righties. This had not been the case in past years where he had shown fairly even production against both hands. A walk rate ten percentage points higher against lefties is a good start, while strikeouts showed a much smaller gap with both hands sitting him down around the average. Expected production on contact was above average against righties and pushed well higher with the platoon advantage, and it was against those same lefties where he saw incredible output on balls in play show up in actuality. The destination is unknown, but he should continue to be an above average hitter who looks like a God when you consider the position.
The left-side of the infield was held down by veterans Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius with each garnering over 200 plate appearances. Segura showed the narrower split with replacement level performance against lefties, while placing around average against righties. The shortstop, Gregorius, looked unplayable against lefties, however, against righties he pushed into the realm of above average. Low walk and strikeout percentages lend visions of an aggressive approach, which worked out well against righties where expected production on contact approached the average and actual came in a bit higher. Not the case with same-handers as both perspectives saw very weak output. The former shortstop, Segura, packs a better walk rate that causes his strikeouts to approach average, while showing better production on contact against both hands, which helped him be worth around twice as many offensive wins above replacement.
Jay Bruce, who got hurt again, and Phil Gosselin were between replacement and average without really establishing themselves necessary for more work, but the last player worth discussion is Scott Kingery. He played around half the season thanks to COVID, a shoulder issue and then back spasms, while hitting righties a bit better than lefties. That isn’t saying much as you’re talking about the difference between replacement level and lower, respectively, though an above average expected production on contact with a strikeout rate much closer to average were a couple of silver linings. His upcoming age-27 season could not be more pivotal for both player and club. A strong showing will almost be necessary for the team to continue to see him as an everyday player, and the sooner that starts the more chance he will have to prove he deserves that responsibility.
Team Batter Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
Teamwide exit velocity was rather sluggish in the first half with peaks around the average and troughs much lower. The middle third set the bar for their best prolonged hard hit rates before cratering to close out the season. Production on contact, however, shows fairly strong production earlier on that was driven more by higher launch angles, and when those fell off later the team still enjoyed some stronger runs, typically when they were hitting the baller harder, more often.
Team Pitcher Production & Discipline
As you’ll see in the table below, the pitching was very much split between a few very good workhorses and then everyone else, and that second list runs incredibly deep a the team threw the kitchen sink at their bullpen only to see that, also, knocked out of the yard. Similar to the New York Mets, there were plenty of good runs when the heavier top was getting the lion’s share of the work, and that immediately toppled over when those guys had to sit and watch. That meant uneven performance over the entirety of the season. While peaks and troughs showed similar frequency it looks like performance continually took on more water than they could bail out with several runs featuring outsized actual performance that made things look even worse. Strikeouts continuously ran between 20 and 30 percent with a general upward trend in the second half. The walk rate showed something similar with much more time looking better than average over the first two-thirds of the season before running more average and higher from then on. All that positive white space on the 2:1 scale means the team was often handling their end from a balls and strikes perspective meaning the source of their problem likely stemmed from when batters did put the ball in play.
Pitcher Seasonal Line
This was the third straight season that saw Aaron Nola take every start, and much like in 2018 he was so dominant he deserves to be included in the discussion of the games true Aces. He worked around lefties a bit showing a walk rate a bit worse than average and expected production on contact pretty near its own mean, but actual played better and the above average strikeout rate helped him secure above average production. He took that several notches higher against righties led first and foremost by a strikeout rate topping 39%. Elite on it’s own, he managed to also throw in a minuscule walk rate that led to one of the most impressive strikeout to walk gaps in the game. Expected production on contact came in a bit above average, while showing even a little higher, but neither rate seems particularly scary or even out of line with other very good starters who aggressively attack the zone.
The next best starter was not an expensive free agent signing, but instead the main piece of the Jimmy Rollins trade nearly six years ago. Injuries and struggles with lefties have caused his path to respectability to take a bit longer than he probably would have liked, but this past short season showed how very good he can be. The struggles with lefties amounted to above average performance driven by a strong strikeout rate clearing 30% that paired nicely with an average walk rate. Expected production on contact ran a bit worse than average, though actual results were cover-your-eyes bad. Against righties he was utterly dominant with an even better walk rate than Nola, though the strikeout rate wasn’t really comparable and actually lower than what he did against lefties. With the platoon advantage, however, the expected production on contact ran much better, such that, when actual showed up a bit worse it still slotted better than average. If the contact can come in anywhere near expected we should be looking at a very good starter flying well under the radar.
The more familiar name and aforementioned well-paid free agent, Zack Wheeler, had kind of a weird year as he became a father during the abbreviated ramp up to the season leaving many questions about his ability to be ready almost immediately after the “Congratulations” was put in the air. He responded by being every bit as good as he was in 2019, albeit, in a different way. The strikeout rate never really got going as it dropped five percentage points from the year prior finishing well below average. The walk rate was much more similar, and still in a strong place, but the place he improved the most was in the kind of contact he gave up. Against lefties he suppressed contact at well better than average rates by either perspective, and while both sides pushed a bit higher against righties they still came in better than average. Seeing a slightly reverse split coming in a year where he faced more lefties than righties this might be an example where he had to lean on a cutter more often, which would cause strikeout rates to fall a bit short, but would help him limit contact against those opposite-handed hitters. Despite all the concerns he fell a batter shy of the team lead. If he can figure out how to re-introduce the strikeouts, while keeping the contact gains he has a chance to give the team a second true Ace.
Moving more into the useful than good category we find Hector Neris and Vince Velasquez who arrived at similar xWAR figures, but via different paths. In 50 fewer batters faced Neris showed a better rate of production, while Velasquez was a bit worse, but there was more of him. Both were better against righties with Neris looking very good across both discipline and contact, and VV showing much higher walk and strikeout rates to go with harder contact, as well. Against lefties the walk rate spiraled out of control for both, though strikeouts did continue at above average rates. The true reliever showed better than average contact, while the swingman got hit pretty hard on his way to being below average against left-handed batters.
Out of the other 24 pitchers used by the team only three faced more than 100 batters giving a sense for just how little depth there was beyond the first five or so arms. Two of them look like their best days are long gone, but hope remains with one. The rookie Spencer Howard arrived around 10 days into the season conveniently after the team had secured an extra year of his service, and also missed the minimum amount of time towards the end of the season for a stiff shoulder. In his brief time he seemed to struggle with lefties as he ran below average strikeout and walk rates, while yielding absurd actual results on contact that played much closer to average by expectations. He looked much better against righties with all three phases pushing to better than average status. He’ll need to figure out how to do at least one thing well against lefties or risk losing starter status, but as a hyped prospect there will also be a bit of a leash to see if he can get there.
Team Pitcher Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
Going strictly off of exit velocity and launch angles you would think the Phillies did an ok on suppressing damage upon contact, and you would be dead wrong. Rampant worse than expected performance on contact left the team bloodied beyond repair most nights, and points to an utter inability to stop home runs from clustering and/or oft outs going for hits. Expected results were often on the wrong side of average, but typically not all that far away with plenty of stronger runs that came in better than average. The ensuing gap between perspectives may have engendered some feelings of hopelessness as if no lead could be large enough, and reminds this author of the 2007 Tampa Bay Rays who could not get any lead to hold up despite strong offensive production from the gang of bat over glove slugs in the field.
Player Analysis in order of 2 Early Mock ADP
It is important to remember throughout, but especially for well established players, that the most plate appearances anybody received this year was 327 including the postseason (378 for a pitcher). Meaning 2020 production is only a narrow slice of what is being shown for entrenched players with a long history. For players where 2020 makes up a larger part of their resumé the more recent data is going to take up more of the space. Considering what every player had to go through this year I do not think it makes sense to over-weight what we saw throughout this season so hopefully incorporating more track record will be more informative than simply showing what occurred this year. Also, the vertical axes will remain locked to make side-by-side comparisons much easier, but throughout this series please pay attention to that x-axis as it will change from player to player.
Bryce Harper (16)
It has been such a marvelous career for Bryce Harper, and you can see above that we pick up the thread starting in 2015, a season that will likely go down as the very tallest tree in a forest full of them for the potential future Hall of Famer. That outstanding performance stands out noticeably for the ensuing choppiness where Bryce would look every bit like the 2015 MVP, but with alternating runs where he fell off to below average performance over and over again. More recently we have seen him get back to being a consistently above to well above average performer. No stranger to the strikeout his early runs featured much better avoidance that typically kept rates better than average. In the middle he saw the entire apparatus detach and move upward to more straddle the average. The very most recent data shows that strikeout rate falling to very strong levels at which he had not sustained for quite some time. The walk rate has almost always been incredible. Occasional dips below the average were almost always blips with peaks that rival anyone else in the land. The recent divergence led to some solid white space on the 2:1 scale rivaling gaps he had shown in his MVP season that had mostly subsided. The patient approach becomes a necessity when pitchers stop throwing anything to hit, which is often the case considering how hard Harper hits the ball, and how adept he is at getting the ball off the ground. Production on contact has almost always come in above average, though there was the sustained mediocrity in 2016 when he battled myriad injuries. Curiously, actual results on contact came in quite a bit worse than the career-best expectations to close out the season when performance has often come in better than expected meaning some of his tremendous violence did not actually translate to the box score, and perhaps represents the saving grace that will allow you to draft the man in the second instead of the first.
Aaron Nola (24)
Despite his presence in a major Northeastern market it seems like Aaron Nola never seems to get his due. We get to see his entire career in the data thanks to his 2015 debut, and what a solid career it has been as he has combined volume with efficiency. Rarely has he been worse than average, while corresponding troughs have often come in at league leader levels. The strikeout rate has often eclipsed 30% without dipping below average all that often. The short season saw him push to career best levels at times, and he combined that with a return to average or better walk rates that had seen some upward lift in the season or more prior. Looking at batted ball characteristics we can see that his exit velocity has been higher more recently with the excellent troughs of the past over half a lifetime ago. His ability to keep the ball down has often been a benefit, though we can see the more recent higher exit velocity has often pushed production on contact to worse than average levels. As mentioned above, this can be a byproduct of aggressively attacking the zone, but may also be about the only red flag on Nola. If that contact starts turning a bit worse and/or his strikeout rate falls off from elite levels (seemingly more credible of a threat) things could look worse in a hurry, but at some point you have to put faith in a starting pitcher and Nola represents a nice second rounder you can get following a great bat then look to pivot in any direction you like.
J.T. Realmuto (48)
The third mostrous head of this cerberus, and the one who is not a lock to return is J.T. Realmuto. Despite the lack of paperwork, Philadelphia seems both the most capable and most in need of his services making a return seem likely. Throughout his career the catcher has consistently ran average or better offense with the second half showing noticeable lift over his first couple of seasons. Performance has often come in better than expected, which should not surprise from a guy who makes good contact and runs well, though only one of those things will likely still be true by the end of his next deal. He has seen his strikeout rate rise above average for much of his tenure in the City of Love, though usually not egregiously, and he continues to add in a walk rate that falls a bit shy of average. Leaving much of his offensive output to his ability to do good things on contact has worked out well given exit velocity averages that typically run at above average rates, and buttressing with a more newfound ability to get the ball off the ground. His expected production on contact has established itself at average or better levels for a while now, and he still seems capable of outperforming to push that impact even larger. The best catcher in the game is about to become a very rich man and it looks like you’ll need to burn a third rounder if you want his ability to dominate at a position where few are anywhere near him.
Zack Wheeler (87)
The fourth top-100 pick on the Phillies sees a return to the mound in the form of Zack Wheeler. A series of unfortunate injuries caused him to miss all of 2015 and ’16, and also a good chunk of 2017, but since then Wheeler has often been a very good starting pitcher. There has been some volatility that pushes him to worse than average position from time to time, but focusing on those blips would obscure all the rest that looks so very good. He has shown the ability to dominate the zone by running very strong walk avoidance rates, but once-strong strikeout rates have mostly settled in at average or lower bands. He still shows a solid gap on the 2:1 scale, but it’s also an area that looked a lot better when he was running those borderline 30% rates. While the strikeout is paramount for fantasy concerns it looks like he is making a concerted effort to stay off the barrel so there have been positives to the diminished punch out potential. Exit velocity, especially, has fallen off tremendously, and unlike past dips into this excellent area he has managed to bring launch angles down, as well. This has helped him get back to that strong production on contact suppression seen earlier that went into hiatus when he lived more around the average for several hundred batters. Finding a way to bring the strikeouts back in without losing the contact gains would allow him to still find another gear, which would make it pretty hard to not consider him an Ace, but he doesn’t need to get there to be extremely useful even if that is more appealing in the real game than fantasy.
Alec Bohm (119)
We only have the short sample from this past season for rookie Alec Bohm, but what a debut he had. Performance was a bit uneven at first as he acclimated to the league, but really started to kick into gear over the second half of his season. Actual results came in a bit hot and heavier than the still good expectations, and the most encouraging thing might be how he has shown an ability to adjust his zone control. When strikeout rates tipped upward at the same time his walks fell off he was able to grab the bull by the horns and wrest both back into better than average levels to close out the season. It seems to have cost him a bit of his exit velocity to get the plate back, though considering the corresponding downturn in launch angle this might point to a player a bit fatigued from everyday play at the highest level for the first time. Interesting to see, though, that even at the lower levels he still saw above average production on contact. As he gains more experience he should be better able to weather the grind, while also showing an ability to lock in the discipline then go to work on the contact. At this price point he feels a bit overvalued given none of these things are guaranteed to come and we can see enough overperformance to bet on at least some regression. Not to mention that the position is absolutely loaded. Still, this feels like a player where there is still a solid chance he finds these other gears to settle in as a nice second tier player if not a star.
Didi Gregorius (145)
While Bohm might be going a touch early it is surprising to see that Didi Gregorius went a couple of rounds later given his last several hundred plate appearances have come at average or worse expected levels. The divergence resulting in better actual outcomes has been rather common throughout his career, though a good deal of the excellence in the middle was driven by his swing being tailor made for the easiest to reach rightfield in the game. His has very much been a contact-driven approach throughout his career as walk and strikeouts have typically both run at lower than average rates leading to oodles of balls put in play. Exit velocity has rarely been a strength, though has often reached levels of quiet competence. Instead, he has relied on his solid ability to get the ball in the air that has helped him leverage the times his exit velocity has played up enough to cause damage. It has mostly been below average expectations on contact production, but again, he has managed to outperform that for long stretches, though not to the point where even those better rates were consistently above average. Expanding struggles with lefties on top of an unknown role at a further unknown destination introduce tons of risk for a player who seems closer to losing his battle with Father Time than once again re-inventing himself in yet another city.
Rhys Hoskins (164)
At the time of the 2 Early Mock drafts all we knew was that Rhys Hoskins had just gotten Tommy John surgery to repair his non-throwing elbow leaving everyone with more hope than confidence the slugger would get on track in time for the season. The train hasn’t run out of track yet as he seems likely to resume most days play shortly after the start of the season, though any setback will have a multiplicative effect so he will need to be monitored carefully. The performance in the shortened season was every bit as good as what he has shown during his best runs in the past, though we are not all that far removed from a 2019 season that saw more pedestrian expectations, and which went much more sour on the actual field. A good deal of his production comes from elite walk rates that routinely place him among league leaders, and the surprising thing that all those deep counts don’t turn into strikeouts more often. He has mostly ran an average rate there with more better than average than worse leaving him with plenty of massive gaps on the 2:1 scale. Another area of extreme is in his flyball rate, which comes well elevated and would almost appear to enter the area of diminishing returns where upward lift in the average comes via the pop up more than the high fly. Some of his best runs for production on contact have come the few times when his exit velocity popped above average, though the latest version presented some of his very worst actual results on contact despite above average expectations. A much better play in OBP leagues, Hoskins should continue to be a good source of power, and with enough questions about the health that your 10th round price could be lemons or lemonade without anyway to tell what is in the bag.
Andrew McCutchen (204)
Even as he has gone from one of the very best players in the game to now more of a solid vet it has been enjoyable to watch the career of Andrew McCutchen. Philadelphia represents his fourth team and might not be his last as he is in the last guaranteed year of a 3/$30M deal that still features a club option for 2022. Cutch has settled into bands of average or better performance for over a thousand plate appearances now, though we do see some deeper dips during the more recent times. Like many others we have seen so far he does a lot of work off the back of the walk, which has often been the case, but not quite to this extreme. The average strikeout rate shows some lumpiness, but usually seems to let gravity guide it home. It really stands out how very good McCutchen was going back to 2015 with a well-rounded game that also featured hellacious contact quite often. He doesn’t sustain at those levels anymore, but has shown the ability to ride a wave to get back up there even if not for as long. That means more time spent at the average and also below, but we also get a glimpse of this old dog maybe learning one last trick as he showed some of his best ability to get the ball off the ground in this shortened season. Production on contact, therefore, has almost always been average or better, though with a lot more time at that first hurdle, especially of late. This puts more emphasis on OBP over contact, and if he can continue to show that the ACL injury is behind him he will only look better. Though that last bit will probably require some more routine days off in order to stay fresh.
Zach Eflin (221)
Giving the team another solid mid-rotation pitcher, Zach Eflin found the shortened season much more to his liking as he avoided injury for the first time, really, throughout his career. When healthy he has often provided strong performance on the bump, though has often seen far worse results than deserved including during his most recent play. His strikeout rate has often bounced wildly around the average with the past season showing a sustained bump that sat around the 30% line. He creates solid gaps in his discipline profile by keeping the walk rate to average or better levels. He even manages to throw in average or better expected production on contact, though here is where we find the source of his discrepancy above. Contact has often played much worse in reality allowing us to infer issue with the homer, more simply a preponderance of balls falling in, or more likely, both. Both perspectives have run in unison at times, but if even career best exit velocity AND launch angle suppression couldn’t do the trick you have to wonder if anything will. Issues with lefties has played a role in all of this, but the worse than expected results have come in fairly similar across both hands. At this price you can afford some risk, of course, but Eflin will need to both maintain the strikeout gains that were fairly out of character and also figure out how to push down that damage on contact to avoid becoming part of your churn. That seems like a lot to ask.
Jean Segura (282)
The last couple of years have seen Jean Segura find an everyday home in Philadelphia with the first holding down shortstop, but more of a utility role in the shortened season. It has been some time since he was a consistently above average performer, but most of the time he won’t kill you as production mostly oscillates around the average with a characteristic slump that goes a little deeper. The walk rate has come up, such that, his peaks reach average, but he still spends most of his time at a lower level. Thanks to a typically very strong ability to avoid the strikeout is still able to run positive discipline gaps on the 2:1 scale. All that contact typically leads to underwhelming exit velocity, though during his better runs he has seen above average contact on production. That hasn’t happened as much lately as those balls in play haven’t been doing much damage putting all the pressure on his ability to steal bags to be anything other than a streamer.
Spencer Howard (293)
It was only a short run for Spencer Howard in his debut, and it it looks like after an undeserved shaky start he showed himself to be something like an average pitcher. Actual performance showed that outsized bubble early, but settled down around halfway through the sample, while expected performance saw him fairly consistently as an average arm. The strikeout rate crested the average, but more often played a little lower and the walk rate was right at the average, as well. Creating some more gap there would be nice to see before falling head over heels. He did a solid job of suppressing exit velocity with even a bit of further improvement as things went along, and his production on contact seemed to get better when he was able to keep launch angles down a bit more often. There is some pedigree here and that he has already shown he can hang is nice to see. Howard presents as a bit of an upside play because there are solvable thing for him to work on that could allow him to find another gear. At this point in the draft anyone with a rotation spot is going to look appealing, and Howard should at least be showing some leg in that regard.
Scott Kingery (374)
Inconsistent playing time for Scott Kingery has mostly been due to various injuries that have left him out of action. He has shown essentially one strong run of performance that looked a lot better in reality then hasn’t really gotten either perspective back to that same good area. His most recent play shows massive underperformance on what were already pretty poor expectations. Strikeouts have been a plague since joining the league with plenty of time straddling 30%, though more recently he was able to corral things down to average before once again seeing the cattle slip away. Walking at a well below average clip for most of his career has led to persistent negative gaps in his discipline profile to the point where it is hard to see him figuring this out. A shame since he is one of the faster players in the league and would seem to be an asset on and between the bases. Production on contact hasn’t really made up for the cracked foundation, either, as exit velocity has mostly been a struggle outside of his lone very good run. He does well to get the ball off the ground, which should allow him to overperform a bit given his speed and ability to carry the ball, but neither aspect is allowed to shine when all he is hitting is weak fly balls. The strong run lends hope that he can do it again with health, but he’ll need both to show up and that hasn’t really happened yet.
Andrew Knapp (406)
With the chance that Realmuto signs elsewhere that could lead to an increase in opportunity for Andrew Knapp since almost every catcher looks worse than the guy he will be replacing. In that sense there should be some interest in a player who broke out a bit this past year after not showing much else prior. To say he has never been good would ignore the strong bubble a couple hundred plate appearances ago, but both sides show fairly massive ravines. That the better performance has come most recently is certainly good to see, and it’s hard to avoid thinking it is driven a good deal by getting his walk rate to approach average after spending so much time north of 30%. He has shown better exit velocity in the past, but has seemed to improve his ability to get the ball off the ground so any extra contact he can make by avoiding the strikeout, the better. This past year showed what it looks like when he can do both, and we can see that the production on contact part of the equation has fairly often sat at average or better levels. With strikeout rate stabilizing so quickly we should have an answer whether Knapp will be an ok C2 or a much stronger one, and if Realmuto goes elsewhere there’s a chance he becomes a backend C1 if increased opportunity still allows his gains to stick around.
Roman Quinn (410)
Teams real and fake alike utilize a guy like Roman Quinn for one reason and one reason only, hot, nasty speed, baby. He flies in the field and on the bases, but getting there has proved to be challenging. So when his actual performance is showing up in above average places as it has a couple of times in his career he has the chance to be a very useful player. When the overperformance dries up and he meets up with woeful expectations then it’s pretty hard to keep running him out there. Curtailing the strikeout rate should be job one considering his wheels are his greatest asset. He has been able to sustain around 20% for a couple of stretches, but has also seen concerning spikes up toward 40%, and while walk rate has often hung around the average, his most recent run shows that rate falling off, as well. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, but also isn’t blasting it into the ground so when they do get through he has the chance to turn a single into a double and a double into a triple helping explain some of the overperformance, but when it isn’t falling in at all there just isn’t much left to contribute leaving him as a guy you would much rather pick up off waivers at the first sniff of good performance.
Adam Haseley (416)
Also showing persistent overperformance throughout his brief trials thus far is the lefty-swinging outfielder Adam Haseley. Entering his age 25 season he should be looking to cement his role on the team, and to get there he will likely need to continue to improve expected performance even further as slow growth so far has merely helped him close with the average. Gains have been made in his strikeout rate turning it from a negative to a positive, and while he doesn’t quite get to an average walk rate he also isn’t immune to the free pass. Those gains on the discipline side have come at a cost, though, as exit velocity has mostly trended in the wrong direction. With trajectories typically tipping downward, as well, it shouldn’t surprise that expected production on contact figures have shown very little change in their below average status. Actual has played up a bit, but even that limit seems to be getting pushed by the end of the season. The team is holding open auditions for their homegrown players to seize the most days role in center field and while Haseley is in the conversation he sure has a ways to go in differentiating himself from the competition.
Hector Neris (444)
Even back in October when these mock drafts occurred it was becoming fairly obvious that the Phillies were going to do something about their bullpen, and since then they have only reinforced the notion with a trade for Jose Alvarado and the signing of Archie Bradley. More fringier wild card plays have also been brought into the fold and it all adds up to a less than tenuous grip on the closer role for Hector Neris. His recent performance has come in pretty solidly, and he has shown in the past that he even has a little more in the tank when things are going well. The spike in strikeouts was fun to behold, but seems like an outlier given the rest of his history including most recently. With that rate falling to merely above average he no longer enjoys quite the gap on the 2:1 scale due to his inability to keep his walk rate below average. Seldom is it an issue, but it’s also almost never a strength. Production on contact mostly settled down to past average or better levels in 2020 despite a reversion in exit velocity to worse than average levels. Lowering the launch angle helped him avoid the catastrophe that occurred last time he was getting hit too hard, too often so it seems like he can still have success even at average exit velocity. Beyond health, the strikeout rate is the key here. If that comes up while he maintains average walk and production on contact rates he should be able to wrest back the closer role that will allow him to rack up saves. Without strikeouts he not only stays out of the ninth, but also slides behind other non-closers who can at least contribute to column K.
Brandon Workman (494)
The guy who took the job from Neris really couldn’t have been worse in his brief stint following a mid-season trade. What had been a fairly solid run of performance with Boston that he at first seemed undeserved, but both sides eventually saw him at that stronger, lower level. This past season would be a whole other animal entirely has he got blew by the average to show career worst performance by the time it was all said and done. The walk rate that had come out of nowhere and ballooned up to 40% nearly halved by the end of the season, which made it much harder to mitigate the damage of his still too high walk rate. Suppressing contact was an area where he didn’t show much fall off, however, as exit velocity mostly maintained at average or better rates seen throughout his career, and he furthered his ability to keep the ball down. When there were still visions of a larger workload early on the production on contact was around average levels, and that’s about where he ended up this year. Throughout his strong run he showed excellent expectations that came in even better in reality. While an injury could easily explain the return to mediocrity this season it’s just as likely that we have already seen the best run of Workman’s career and now he will be much more like the average guy he has already been only with a slightly more familiar name. As one of the many in the relief army out in free agency this year it is possible he falls into an idyllic situation where he looks likely to be the closer, but it is hard to see him pushing aside better arms on most of the teams who are likely to amass a high save total.
Jay Bruce (HM)
Going undrafted for the first time in a long time this seemed like a fine, if not final, opportunity to review the career (since 2015) of Jay Bruce. Even at these advanced years he is still capable of putting together solid runs of performance, though his ability to stay on the field long enough for that harvest to be worthwhile remains ever in question. The trough in actual performance this past year hints at a guy who never got on track, though expectations saw him not all that far off the average. Considering he’s a bat-only player now they need more than that, but it might be enough to entice another team to give him one last chance. The strikeouts have shown a bit of stickiness around the average not all that long ago, though more recent spikes have met up and gone past the 30% demarcation. He also seems to have utterly lost his ability to walk, which has only played average or better for one sustained run, again, not all that long ago. His game revolves around putting the ball in the air and the times he hits it hard enough he can be a productive player. That exit velocity has tended to come up to average and beyond so it shouldn’t surprise that production on contact has continued to be a bit of a strength. His ability to hit righties at an above average clip should probably last a bit longer so at the very least he’s on the wide side of a platoon and likely benefitting from the extra days off, but even in that case it’s hard to see a full season. More likely, he helps a team for a month or two who then cuts bait when they’re ready to call up a guy whose service time they wanted to suppress. Any work is good work, but this could get ugly.
Vince Velasquez (HM)
The stuff has often lived larger than the performance for Vince Velasquez so while he, also, wasn’t drafted he has a high enough profile and potentially opportunity that it is worth looking under the hood. Until you open that puppy up and a raccoon jumps out at you in the form of pretty lousy performance for going on 700 batters faced. Going back that far we see a bit of a respite where he started to look pretty decent, but on the other side of that sunny meadow were more stormy clouds. The strikeouts are often there with rates ranging from a bit below average to cresting 30%. Unfortunately the walk rate also plays at higher levels with occasional forays into the land of good more than offset by worse than average runs. Where he really gets burnt, however, is in his prodigious production on contact allowed where high exit velocities pair with ideal launch trajectories to create what has mostly been a problem throughout his career. As more of a swingman there is a chance he can vulture some wins when things are going right, and limiting his looks should help the strikeouts play up, but it’s such a low ceiling that you should have no business drafting him.
Leave a Reply
Friends don't let friends talk to themselves.
You must be logged in to post a comment.