With the end of the regular season comes a time for reflection for the majority of baseball fans. What went right? What went wrong? You probably have a few ideas where your teams fell short or exceeded expectations, but what about a completely objective point of view? Throughout this season I have shown what batter and pitcher production looks like when we regress balls in play to look more like what the players should have seen using exit velocity and launch angle. The offseason will be no different as I take a team-by-team look at how the season fared for the club, while going a little deeper on players who were selected in the 2 Early Mock Draft. Provided there is a decent amount of history worth looking into. Player analysis will run from 2015 to present regardless of employer.
The order of release is the reverse of the final season ranking report so you can expect to find some depression leading to elation here. A quick review of that previous post can also give you a good idea of how a team rates compared to their peers as these analyses will focus upon each individual team. Lastly, playoff data has been included, which will not impact the first dozen or so teams, but does factor into league averages, and is included within player analysis. It’s going to take some time, but I would like to get one to two of these out each week which should allow for every team being covered before our glorious game returns to continue threshing our hearts.
COL BOS DET MIA PIT TEX ARI SEA KCR BAL WAS STL
Team Batter Production & Discipline
No one will ever know if the choppiness of this season is related to guilt over a multi-year cheating scandal that changed up every time a faint whiff was in the air, but that’s exactly how the offense performed for the Houston Astros in 2020. Strong periods of production were typically short and swiftly overtaken by a corresponding downturn that reached even deeper troughs in the wrong direction before turning around and starting the dance over. The third quarter showed mostly the bad with fewer bright spots, but then curiously the team closed the season on a very high note thanks to a playoff run where the team looked an awful lot like their old selves as they compiled not only their highest peaks, but also sustained the good performance longer than at any point during the shortened season. Strikeouts dipped during that time, but to levels they experienced early only with increased brevity. Walk rate spikes were higher earlier before going to bed quietly, but then came roaring back during the playoff run.
Batter Seasonal Line
Many teams discussed thus far had to dip deep into their bag simply in order to get through the season, but the Astros caught some health breaks (outside of Yordan Alvarez), and seemed to mostly avoid Covid issues leading to eight different player accruing 200 or more plate appearances, including the postseason. The best of the bunch was George Springer who currently sits available to the highest bidder. Curiously, he was a bit worse against lefties, though still quite good. The walk rate took a small bite, but the strikeout rate was over ten percentage points higher, and while he mashed on contact it showed up far weaker in reality. He thrived against righties, though, with both discipline rates coming in much better than average and getting to nearly all of the prodigious expected thump he deserved.
The triumvirate of Michael Brantley (also a free agent now), Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker in his first full season, all showed strongly driven by high volume and above average production. Lead dog Brantley showed little platoon split with an average walk rate, while hardly ever striking out. Production on contact was a small step up from average, but presented much better in reality. The shortstop, Correa, showed a bit of a reverse split that was a departure from past years, but staying on the field, for once, allowed him to rack up volume. His production on contact was quite strong, and he got to nearly all of it, which helped offset more pedestrian strikeout and walk rates. Finally getting an opportunity to play everyday Kyle Tucker showed he can certainly do all the wonderful things people have thought for a few years now. The short prior runs showed a guy who hit lefties fairly well with some struggles when he had the platoon advantage, but this year he hit both sides pretty evenly. Walk rates were nearly identical, while he struck out a fair bit more against righties similar to Springer bringing into question if the change up is a pitch that can befuddle these very good hitters. Tucker has room to improve the walk rate, but if the aggressiveness keeps the strikeouts in check and he isn’t seeing any drop in the very hard contact he provides then it’s a very small issue.
Good discipline rates for second and third-sackers, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve, respectively, were necessary to help offset fairly weak production on contact from the two fingered the hardest by the cheating probe. Each hit lefties better than righties, but Altuve showed a fairly massive split while Bregman’s was more muted. Altuve was a below replacement hitter versus same-handed righties with loads of contact coming in well below average. The ferocity with which he attacked lefties gave him a leg up on Bregman when comparing the overall lines as the diminutive Bregman showed very little authority on his contact. The strong walk and strikeout rates allowed both to play as above average hitters, but without the authority on contact were not able to match the very strong seasons of their peers.
Rounding out the above-replacement group we come across the catcher Martin Maldonado, first basemen Yuli Gurriel, and the aforementioned Alvarez who played only about a series worth of games. Nobody expects the cather to thump, but Maldonado was pretty good against lefties with a strong walk rate and better than deserved production on contact, but being below replacement against righties where the strikeout rate ballooned and contact fell a bit below the average. Gurriel’s aggressive approach leads to a lot of balls in play, but much of that contact was pretty soft, and that especially was true when facing righties. Against either hand he failed to get to even his modest expectations leading to a cratering triple-slash in the boxscore. Regressing the terrible results shows a guy who approached the average from a deserved-lens, but not exactly what you are hoping for out of your first baseman.
There is little to write home about for the rest of the group with only the washed Josh Reddick getting much run. There wasn’t an above replacement offensive season from the bunch, which should scare Houston fans a good deal as they have to replace two of their two best offensive performers and don’t seem to have much help ready to step into the breach. With several players already signed to big money deals amidst a free agent class that is sparse on stars the team might try to churn through these options again next year, but when predictable results play out in reality it will be interesting to see how the team responds.
Team Batter Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
For the most part, team exit velocity came in at a below average rate. Troughs were aplenty and fairly deep, while flirtations with the average were often the best things got. Until they got to the postseason when they showed their best sustained run of hard hit balls over the entire season. Makes you wonder why they don’t just make the whole season out of the playoffs. The uptick when it mattered most clearly lead to their best offensive run of the season, though actual results were suppressed a bit from the strong expectations once peak was reached. Not for the first time, either, as a good deal of the season saw worse than expected results on contact. There was a pretty solid stretch in the middle, as well, where the team elevated their hill and dale output to oscillate around the mean, but the rest of the season shows a team that was really struggling to hit the ball hard and productively.
Team Pitcher Production & Discipline
While the offense left a lot to be desired, the arms for the Houston Astros were able to do a much better job of carrying their weight coming in collectively as an above average group, barely. There was a spike early then got their teeth kicked in over the middle for a bit before closing the season on a high note that continued into their deep playoff run. The batters on the team love to make pitchers work, but their own arms gave out free passes like Old Saint Nick coming fresh off a cookie bender. There was a massive correction towards the end and things seemed to improve a bit from there, but so much of the season was spent in bands that ranged from worse to pretty lousy. Perhaps a byproduct of all those long counts, the team was able to run above average strikeout rates for much of the season. Occasionally they would dip down to very weak levels, but for the most part they were north of 20%, and things really kicked into gear over the last third of the season when the team was running rates that approached or exceeded 30% including the playoff run when they could focus on using their very best based on the matchup.
Pitcher Seasonal Line
A rough 2019 for Framber Valdez had him on the outside looking in for many a year ago, but taking a chainsaw to an ugly walk rate worked wonders for the recently-turned 27 year old. Strong production against lefties should not obscure that he was above average against righties, too, and he did all that while leading MLB in batters faced. The good strikeout rate didn’t take a break against either hand, though righties did tune him up a bit on expected contact that came in a good deal better in reality. That overperformance allowed him to look even better by casual stats, but even if contact comes in at the expected average level he was still a very good arm. The walk improvement might be so massive that it will be hard to sustain all of, and he should expect batters to get a bit more on their contact, but those strengths this past season are as close as you can get to caution.
The next two starters represent wildly different ends of a seesaw. The true rookie Cristian Javier and the old man Zack Greinke go about their business in different ways, but both were strong performers this past season. The youngster more than held his own against lefties pairing averagey walk and strikeout rates with better than average expected contact that came in a bit harder, while absolutely obliterating righties. The walk rate crossed over to worse than average, but he did well to amp up the strikeouts while suppressing contact really well. There was some overperformance against them, which perfectly offset the extra damage from lefties. Now a soft-tossing righty living off guile and great hair, Zack Greinke used to pump gas that hard, but now tries to hit every MPH on the gun every start to keep batters off balance. Pounding the zone helps as he hardly walks anybody, while still managing to run an average strikeout rate that played up against lefties indicating the change up is alive and well. The contact was very loud against righties, as well, leading to near replacement-level production against the group. While still a productive starter this past year he seems to be springing more leaks despite the short season theoretically helping older players avoid hitting the wall.
It was mostly a lost season for Roberto Osuna who dealt with myriad issues following a late start due to visa issues, but, hey, at least he didn’t hit any women this year that we know about. Stepping into the vacuum of his absence, Ryan Pressly was absurdly good holding down both sides while running an incredibly wide strikeout to walk gap. Actual production showed up quite a bit harder than he deserved with both sides benefiting. If the issue persists in the face of strong expectations he might be able to convert some of that hard contact to the walk where it might not hurt as much. A couple more outstanding relievers were the lefties Brooks Raley and Blake Taylor. The former had not thrown a pitch in MLB in over six years, but was pretty useful much of that time as a starter in the KBO. He dominated same-handers running a strikeout rate near 40% with incredibly weak contact, while trading a lousy walk rate and hard contact for a still very good strikeout rate against righties that placed him around the average. Taylor showed reverse splits with worse discipline rates, but a profound ability to nullify contact. Two more names that helped the pen be an outstanding unit were Andre Scrubb and Cy Sneed though both showed fairly wide platoon splits that might lead a manager to use them in more of a specialist role.
After a missed 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery Lance McCullers showed some flashes of past glory, and while it was good to see him stretch back out as much as he could with seemingly little issue, the production came in far enough below average that he wasn’t able to parlay the high volume into more than half a win above replacement. Strikeouts and walks were a strength, but came at the expense of hard contact. Still, he showed what he needed to in the first year back and should be expected to build upon this foundation going forward. Going the other way was Jose Urquidy, another starter, who didn’t sit too many guys down, but wasn’t overwhelmed by the walk, either. Production expectations were slightly above average, though manifested much better in reality. The legend Justin Verlander only saw 13 batters forcing some of the names above into more action than the team would have liked, but it seems they found a way to replace a lot of the gap. Brandon Bielak was one of the guys pressed into duty who was not able to shine as his hard contact and soft discipline rates show a guy who was quite overmatched.
Team Pitcher Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
The pitchers did pretty well to suppress exit velocity with only a couple of brief stretches that came in above average while showing several troughs of soft contact. The best of it seemed to come early, but there were sustained good runs later, too even if things didn’t look quite as shiny. Looking at how batted ball characteristics translated to production we can see that high volatility in the first half, some of which they outran with well better actual results, but no real consistency with ups as far from the average as the downs and seemingly trading with each other over and over again. The middle was pretty poor as we saw in the aggregate production chart earlier with the end of the season and playoffs bringing everything closer to the average with lower peaks, but also higher valleys and a good deal more consistency than the first half.
Player Analysis in order of 2 Early Mock ADP
It is important to remember throughout, but especially for well established players, that the most plate appearances anybody received this year was 327 including the postseason (378 for a pitcher). Meaning 2020 production is only a narrow slice of what is being shown for entrenched players with a long history. For players where 2020 makes up a larger part of their resumé the more recent data is going to take up more of the space. Considering what every player had to go through this year I do not think it makes sense to over-weight what we saw throughout this season so hopefully incorporating more track record will be more informative than simply showing what occurred this year. Also, the vertical axes will remain locked to make side-by-side comparisons much easier, but throughout this series please pay attention to that x-axis as it will change from player to player.
Alex Bregman (31)
The Astros featured five top-100 picks according to the 2 Early Mock drafters with Alex Bregman going the highest at 31. He has enjoyed mostly above average production over his career, especially over the last 1500 or so plate appearances. The strong true production even manages to sell the little fellow short as his actual consistently came in above expectations thanks to an approach that sees him putting his pitches in play and making the pitcher work for everything. The approach not only seems repeatable, but leads to a ridiculous walk rate as his discipline keeps him from biting on pitcher’s pitches. The progressive improvement in strikeout rate to elite levels leads to enormous gaps between the two rates, and help build the foundation for good offense. Not getting the overperformance on contact this year left his surface numbers looking weaker, but it appears to be a sustainable part of his game that you would bank on going forward. That’s good, because outside of a couple spikes the expected production on contact has mostly been average or worse. When actual is riding higher the contact production looks fine. Folding in with the discipline stats leaves you one of the better hitters in the game.
Kyle Tucker (39)
It didn’t take long for Kyle Tucker to establish himself as a legitimate force in MLB making good on a power/speed skillset that always felt more like a question of when rather than if. His early true production came in at an average or better clip, though actual results lagged behind with a pretty poor strikeout rate ensuring the triple slash wasn’t turning heads. The more recent run highlights a player who worked to diminish the strikeout rate getting it down to better than average rates. He has consistently walked at a below average, but not terrible, clip. Exit velocity has continuously come in above average, though hasn’t translated eye-popping results on contact from either perspective. Solidly above average is nothing to sneeze about, but he has also shown some dip down to the average, as well, and with exit velocity this strong you would think he has some room to grow. If he can keep the strikeouts down while finding a way to better leverage the hard hit balls you could be looking at a really good player who still has another gear we have yet to see.
George Springer (59)
Coming off a fantastic 2020, it would be easy to say George Springer has timed his trip to market pretty well, but that would ignore how this past season mostly fell in line with past performance. The capable center fielder has been that good and it is nothing new despite often being overshadowed by other members of their good lineup. His walk rate has almost always exceeded his strikeout rate on the 2:1 scale indicating he is more than offsetting the demerits issued by his already better than average strikeout clip. This combination makes him ideal for the top of a lineup, but what really makes him stand out is his ability to produce on contact. The exit velocity is typically around the average with as many very good runs as weaker stretches until more recent consistency. He gets a lot out of the hard contact as evidenced by his production on balls in play that have lead to nearly universal above average production that often enough came in wildly above. There were a couple of deeper troughs not all that long ago, but this is what a complete hitter looks like, and why he is set to make an awful lot of money and hopefully a team worth rooting for a good deal better.
Zack Greinke (85)
It has been an illustrious career for Zack Greinke who will surely one day find his face ensconced in bronze in Cooperstown. The performance continues to waver between average and excellent with the occasional spike into worse than average territory, which is where he spent a lot of time toward the end of this past season. Some volatility in the strikeout rate has been common for quite a while now with good runs topping out around 30% briefly before turning around and heading back to worse than average then rinse and repeat. The walk rate has also started to show some more inconsistency, which has meant even topping out around the average with most of his time showing very strong walk avoidance. He doesn’t quite reach prior troughs of soft contact, but he has consistently suppressed contact pretty well with the most recent sample showing a nice jag to remind of more glorious days. Soft exit velocity has mostly translated to weaker production on contact, though he has had more rough patches here than on the zone control side. The steep increase in the most recent performance seem to confirm what looked like a gassed Greinke during the ALCS.
Yordan Alvarez (88)
The last of the top-100 picks, Yordan Alvarez would push even higher if not for a completely lost 2020 season that saw a youngish man get knee surgery twice. While that introduces uncertainty from the health perspective, the displayed talent looks like a guy capable of being the best hitter in the game. Granted, he did take a step down, and then another during his sensational rookie season giving credence to the idea that pitchers were starting to adjust to him. Further evidence in that direction shows up with the increasing strikeout rate, though other than the tails he did a good job of walking more than striking out, which spent too much time around the 30% level or higher. All that whiff had the benefit of coming with very strong exit velocity mostly persisted through the bad times and the good. Production on contact was starting to come down a touch, but we have seen few players. consistently sit at this high level throughout the series thus far. As a pure upside play there will be few who can match the Astros designated hitter, but knee injuries typically do not get better, only worse, and it appears pitchers were sitting him down enough to bite into aggregate production.
Jose Altuve (109)
The biggest little cheater that could, Jose Altuve, saw a woeful start to this past year before a scalding playoff run where everything pretty much looked like that same old guy who was being informed which pitch was coming. We see a long history of that level of excellent performance, and back before the knee injuries he could really fly giving credence to actual performance that persistently came in well above of still typically strong expectations. The second half of the sample does show a sort of general falling off of his bands with lower peaks and valleys that led to the early production being about as bad as back in 2015 when he was still figuring out how pull more fly balls without giving up the ghost elsewhere. The strikeout rate is still amongst league leaders, in a good way, but has come up a bit since the earlier section when he was elite. There also appears to be more volatility these days with sharp swings, perhaps, driven by trying to find the sweet spot on the spectrum between passive and patient. The walk rate shows a bit of that, as well, with many strong runs of above average performance, but the bulk of the iceberg remaining below the surface. Lulling pitchers into throwing ambushable first-pitch fastballs following a fairly passive stretch is a great way to maximize pulled flyballs, which is rather necessary when exit velocity has never really established above average, and shows a general trend downward to present. A similar path for his launch angle, as well. Converting these coordinates to production we can see strong runs of success that show hitting is more about exit velocity, and when his legs were working well you can see how he persistently overperformed, though very rarely in second half of sample. The crater this year was nearly past career worsts, though the rebound looking like a hand popping up from the grave shows this dude can still get hot.
Framber Valdez (112)
After about a full season of work, Framber Valdez looks like one of the better pitchers in the game today. There was a concerning blip around halfway through the sample when his walk rate fell back on old habits, but credit to the pitcher for not only improving his walk rate to a strength, but doing so simultaneously with a solid, gradual increase to strikeouts that has seen him push to elite levels in short order. While he tends to give up quite a bit of hard contact, batters find it incredibly difficult to get the ball off the ground enough for that to matter. For much of his career Framber Valdez has caused batters to average a collective launch angle in the negatives against him, something we haven’t really seen yet. The unique ability allows him to get away with harder exit velocity as production estimates have typically been around the average without running too far away for too long in either direction. An acclimating arm putting a massive walk issue behind him without losing anything on contact, while also raising strikeout rate is pretty rare, and though the Mockers had him at 112 there might not be a larger jump up the boards this winter than Framber Valdez.
Carlos Correa (117)
Long a productive hitter, Carlos Correa’s biggest issue has been staying on the field. In that regard, the short season helped out a good deal, but he was not able to push toward previous heights mostly due to a woeful start. There have been fallow periods like what we saw including of longer duration, but past troughs have been sandwiched by higher highs. The floor of the strikeout rate has risen over the years with peaks pushing up to 30%, but typically centered more around the average. Walk rates spiked higher in the past with his more recent runs seemingly more consistent in average or better range. A big change in his game is the atrophying of all that exit velocity he showcased when he was younger. The last half of this sample shows a guy who mostly stays around the average with brief flirtations with the sun before gossamer wings melted away. Despite the outsized exit velocity his earlier production on contact was mostly in the better than average than much higher levels due to trajectories that were more downward. Trading off some exit velocity to get the ball a bit higher has seemed to serve well on batted balls as production has ticked up higher, though a couple of trough periods show that it wasn’t all gravy.
Lance McCullers Jr. (129)
The missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery was a rough blow for Lance McCullers Jr., but by getting surgery right after the 2018 season ended he was able to get back out there this past season much further along in the rehab process than many others who try to come back too soon to predictably poor results. It’s like he never skipped a beat when looking at production as his most recent stuff comes in a bit worse than earlier in his career, but still around the average. His strikeout rate has often broached 30%, but typically not for all that long showing a bit of inconsistency as the troughs dip down to around 15% or so. Walks have occasionally been an issue, though with much more time spent around the average it’s more of a ding than a dent. His exit velocity has mostly maintained around the average, and he has done a good job to keep the ball down. That production on contact has manifested around the average, and we can see a good deal of overperformance mostly driven by this season that didn’t really show up with any regularity prior.
Michael Brantley (142)
Outside of a weird dip in actual performance fairly recently it has been a long run of average or better performance going back to the start of the Statcast Era for Michael Brantley. He goes about his business by running ultra-low strikeout rates that have typically come with a walk rate approaching the average, especially of late. Contact has typically come on with average exit velocity, which is a tick upward from the earlier performance. Production on contact has mostly ticked up to average or better levels after leaning the other way over the first half. Given so much of his production comes from maintaining control of the zone he merely needs to continue the average production on contact to continue to be a strong contributor to both real and fantasy lineups, alike.
Ryan Pressly (181)
Stepping into the closer role when Roberto Osuna went down was Ryan Pressly who had shown some ups and downs with the Twins, but found a couple of new gears upon coming over to Houston. The most recent run wasn’t quite on that level, but worse than expected results made him look a bit more ordinary. The strikeout and walk rates have shown incredible positive growth rates leading to thick gaps that have opened up the more recent we go. Seeing improvement to exit velocity shows a well-rounded skillset that has even led to more contact being driven downward. Production on contact has seen a good deal of volatility despite the seemingly strong batted ball characteristics with actual results demuring with expectations in both directions nearly continuously, which may indicate the home runs have had a tendency to clump and cluster. He should assume the role right out of the gate on a team that still looks pretty strong leading to the possibility of big saves totals. A history of knee issues might cloud things introducing a bit more risk that pushes him down the board.
Cristian Javier (183)
We have a somewhat short sample of data for Cristian Javier as this season marked his debut. The production came in strongly with a positive trend as the season wore on. Walks were a bit of an issue as they didn’t really dip below the average, but with a modicum of consistency that also saw no spikes. The strikeouts usually came in at an acceptable level to offset the walk rate with a move from around the average to kissing 30% by the end of the season. Batted balls featured some extremes with launch angle showing him to yield flyballs in bunches, and with the slight exit velocity typically manufactured there was little surprise that production on contact came in consistently better than average. Actual results were a bit closer to average for much of the season, but this looks like an outstanding young pitcher just starting to come into his own. Given the high flyball rate there will come a time when a home run cluster blows up his line, but soft flyballs are the easiest outs so as long as he can manage the walk rate he should profile nicely as a steal at this price point.
Jose Urquidy (218)
Perhaps a cautionary tale for Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy also showed 250 plate appearances of pretty good performance before seeing a fairly wide divergence between worse than average expectations and well better actual results. When things coalesced it was at the higher level around the average. The strikeout rate wasn’t able to hold up at average or better levels as the more recent run sank well below the average. Walks mostly stayed well better than average turning a fairly wide gap to a slight edge that tends to go back and forth. Also like Javier he tends to put the ball in the air with regularity, though elevated exit velocity show why production expectations were also a bit higher coming in around the average, though actual results on balls in play have shown an aggressive ability to subsist at better levels.
Roberto Osuna (251)
Talent has never been the problem for Roberto Osuna who has consistently been a well better than average pitcher. Injury issues have throttled his volume with the most recent elbow issue likely knocking him out of the initial closer’s role for the club. Better than average walk rates have come with average or better strikeout rates leading to a consistently strong gap. Exit velocity has mostly come down over time leading to consistently better than average production on contact that he has even managed to outperform for much of his career. The strikeouts are not so absurd that you wouldn’t mind using him as a non-saves reliever, but there is a good chance he will pilfer at least a few, and maybe a lot as late-inning bullpen usage has never been more fluid.
Yuli Gurriel (324)
Holding down first base mostly due to no real challenger, Yuli Gurriel has been an occasionally pretty good hitter with corresponding lesser runs that saw him a lot less useful. There was a recent spike upward in actual results on the back of career best expectations, but the most recent run shows an overcorrection of massive proportions. An aggressive approach has led to walk and strikeout rates that are both well below average, though coming proportionally enough to be a net benefit. Exit velocity used to be much more consistently above average, but has tamped down a touch since then, though with a coinciding increase to launch angle. Most of the time his production on contact has come in below average with occasional trips above the average. The cratering seen in actual results this year far oustripped a decline in expectations. Other than guaranteed playing time there isn’t a whole lot to like here.
Martin Maldonado (415)
The catcher Martin Maldonado has always been a glove-first option, which seems to be more than a classic case of Nichols Law of Catcher Defense given the pedestrian offense throughout. The most recent run shows him getting to and exceeding the average, and not for the first time, but the greater history shows a guy who really struggles to be even an average producer. The strikeout rate took off this past season, and has rarely stayed below average for long, but did come with the benefit of a higher walk rate, which had long been a weakness. Awful exit velocity halfway through the sample stands out from the pack possibly indicating a time when he was playing more hurt than normal, but the greater sample shows a guy approaching the average. The recent run, however, does show some falloff back to the career worst period. The higher launch angle of late helped production play up as it came in above average, which has rarely been the case coming into the season. Outside of the team signing J.T. Realmuto the job looks to be Maldonado’s going forward.
Myles Straw (434)
It’s a small sample for the speedster Myles Straw who likely plateaus as a super-sub type who can play all over fairly well, but doesn’t feature all that well in a regular role due to very soft contact. The declining walk rate hints at pitchers becoming less timid in challenging Straw, though he has seen little change in an averagey strikeout rate. Production on contact has mostly been below average, but teams drafting him really only have the stolen bases on their mind, and with the team needing to replace two whole outfield positions it stands to reason he will see an uptick in playing time.
Justin Verlander (Honorable Mention)
The Mockers did not select Justin Verlander reflecting the fact that he will not play in 2021 following Tommy John surgery. At his advanced age there is a real possibility that we have already seen the last pitch the future Hall of Famer will ever throw so this gives us a great opportunity to review the oustandingness that has been his career since at least 2015. Overall production has ran between average and league elite showing a bit more volatility that we may have thought. Also evident is the weaker stretch that came prior to his trade that sank any chance of the Tigers fully capitalizing on one of their best players in a franchise that runs deep on great players. The strikeout rate virtually sitting at 30% over his last two thousand or more batters while also running better than average walk rates for most of the sample. Consistently limiting exit velocity has been another facet of his attack with much of his balls in play coming in the air. The flyballs have led to more variance with a major spike not all that long ago, but much more of his career seeing better than expected results as a byproduct of all those air balls finding gloves. We run out of superlatives when looking at players this good, and hopefully we’ll get some more data to review before it’s all said and done.
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