With the end of the regular season comes a time for reflection for the majority of baseball fans. What went right? What went wrong? You probably have a few ideas where your teams fell short or exceeded expectations, but what about a completely objective point of view? Throughout this season I have shown what batter and pitcher production looks like when we regress balls in play to look more like what the players should have seen using exit velocity and launch angle. The offseason will be no different as I take a team-by-team look at how the season fared for the club, while going a little deeper on players who were selected in the 2 Early Mock Draft. Provided there is a decent amount of history worth looking into. Player analysis will run from 2015 to present regardless of employer.
The order of release is the reverse of the final season ranking report so you can expect to find some depression leading to elation here. A quick review of that previous post can also give you a good idea of how a team rates compared to their peers as these analyses will focus upon each individual team. Lastly, playoff data has been included, which will not impact the first dozen or so teams, but does factor into league averages, and is included within player analysis. It’s going to take some time, but I would like to get one to two of these out each week which should allow for every team being covered before our glorious game returns to continue threshing our hearts.
Team Batter Production & Discipline
The offensive flashes were few and far between for the 2020 Seattle Mariners whose occasional competence was drowned out by the higher frequency of, and deeper troughs during, their periods of below average performance. Unlike many teams who seemed to come out flat the Mariners were a fine offense in the early goings, but soon they would experience their worst sustained stretch of the season. Things brightened up a bit in the third quarter before a rather poor finish. It was not uncommon for the team to right higher strikeout rates flirting with 30%. Their most productive runs came during one of these stretches, but for the most part higher punch out rates led to worse offensive production.
Batter Seasonal Line
The venerable veteran Kyle Seager found the shorter season to his approval as he feasted on righties and held his own against lefties, though his actual results on contact left a lot to be desired. If not for the poison pill in his contract there would be a laundry list of teams willing to give up a small piece for him, but it’s likely he stays in Seattle this year. Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis matched Seager’s strong walk rate, but with more than double the strikeout rate. The upside of the whiff is that he did show very strong production on contact. He displayed a fairly wide platoon split with a better walk rate, and better production, against lefties. Exceeding Lewis on a rate basis, but putting up nearly a hundred fewer plate appearances, Dylan Moore was built on a very similar mold when it came to high walk and strikeout rates. He also matched Lewis by showing wonderful production on contact. Expected production was similar regardless of pitcher handedness, though he did run a much better walk rate against righties.
Like two ships passing in the night the Mariners turned Austin Nola’s outstanding production in the first half into Ty France’s pretty good offense over the second half. There were a lot of other parts involved, mostly owed to how very good Nola has been at the plate, while also being able to squat behind it. The lack of a platoon split is something France could not replicate as he made woeful contact against lefties, but he was an even better hitter against righties. It took around two and a half times the plate appearances for J.P. Crawford to match France as his production came in below average, but above replacement. Being able to play an average or better six should kept him in the lineup for a ton of opportunity.
Coming into the season with a mere 18 plate appearances at AAA, and that two years ago, Evan White was pushed into everyday play this year due to the lack of a minor league season. Facing the best competition you have ever seen is a frustrating endeavor, one which saw him strikeout north of 40%, but he did throw in an average walk rate and loads of pop. He underperformed mightily against lefties on that contact, but was able to get to all of it against righties. Weaker hitters like Tim Lopes and Shed Long Jr. also saw a good deal of time this year, but both showed weak contact to go with strikeout and/or walk issues.
Team Batter Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
Exit velocity often came in well below average, though flirtations with the average were not uncommon, and the end of the season saw a fairly nice run before puttering out. The team seems to show higher launch angles into more productive angles with a couple of larger spikes later on, though this translated best during the middle of the season with a nice spike in production on contact that most belied average or worse the rest of the way.
Team Pitcher Production & Discipline
The high volatility in production allowed speaks to a staff that had some good aspects, but not nearly enough of them. The downward jags, of which there are many that run quite deep, come when the better arms are clustering together, and any momentum mustered is immediately broken by the next day’s starter. The strikeout rate mostly oscillated around the average with a step down over the last quarter of the season, while walk rates generally ran from average to horrific. There was a run in the middle when the team managed to suppress the walk pretty well, but it stands out due to the rarity of the result.
Pitcher Seasonal Line
Despite 29 guys seeing action this year the Mockers felt only five were worth taking with Marco Gonzales the best of the bunch. The rank feels a bit aggressive for a guy who went a lot later coming into 2020 making it harder to want to go back to that well for those who were paid off handsomely. He benefited a good bit on his contact against righties,but ran average strikeout rates with some of the lowest walk rates in the league, and should continue to pitch in a park that favors left-handed pitchers. That southpaw attribute is a common refrain amongst their other fine pitchers last year. It was a shorter stint for Yusei Kikuchi, but he managed to outperform Gonzales on a rate basis with a slightly higher strikeout rate and expected contact that was every bit as good as what Marco actually allowed. The walk rate was around average, but if he can continue to look like this going forward after a very shaky start to his career in the States he would represent significant value over his well-regarded teammate.
A couple more lefties filter in with Justus Sheffield representing the far brighter light due to prospect pedigree and the hopes for future improvement. This past season saw him log the second largest workload with relatively average discipline metrics and average contact that he well outran in reality. Still, even if those hits start doing the damage that we expect he still pitched like an average guy. With rather large platoon splits it seems he will succumb to the inevitable blowup much like any other pitcher, but he also has potential for very good games against lineups that cannot hide their lefties. The other lefty standout, Nick Margevicius, was a step down from those already mentioned, but a useful back of rotation pitcher who got hit hard, but limited the walk fairly well. Strikeouts around the average are useful, and the park should continue to do him favors making him potentially a useful streaming option.
Much of the same can be said of Kendall Graveman who avoided hard contact pretty well with more pedestrian strikeout and walk rates. Somebody is going to close games out next year with Yohan Ramirez representing a solid option if he can get the walks under control. Carl Edwards Jr. might be another name for that hat. It was a brief blip of performance, but one through which he was outstanding. The last pitcher of significance to cover is Justin Dunn who was useful against righties and a mess against lefties. The actual contact showed much better perhaps masking some hope, but there does not look to be much exciting here in a fairly robust sample in 2020.
Team Pitcher Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
The staff showed a couple of hiccups in the first half of the season where exit velocity was well above average, but outside of those twin peaks you can see the team did a pretty good job of suppressing hard contact throughout much of the rest of the season. These combinations reiterate the wild swings seen well above for team production. Things are going along great and then landslide. Things are going along great and then tornado. Very little consistency for a staff that was well short and received very little from the many pieces of pasta thrown at the wall. The bright side is that they plan to keep the good and replace the bad. The downside is that is everyone’s plan every year. This looks like a unit that could use a real ace who pushes Gonzales, Kikuchi and Sheffield down a peg and improvement across the board for the support guys whether it is the middle or end of the game.
Player Analysis in order of 2 Early Mock ADP
It is important to remember throughout, but especially for well established players, that the most plate appearances anybody received this year was 327 including the postseason (378 for a pitcher). Meaning 2020 production is only a narrow slice of what is being shown for entrenched players with a long history. For players where 2020 makes up a larger part of their resumé the more recent data is going to take up more of the space. Considering what every player had to go through this year I do not think it makes sense to over-weight what we saw throughout this season so hopefully incorporating more track record will be more informative than simply showing what occurred this year. Also, the vertical axes will remain locked to make side-by-side comparisons much easier, but throughout this series please pay attention to that x-axis as it will change from player to player.
Kyle Lewis (103)
Anytime someone wins an award for single season performance there has to be an element of good fortune that helps a player differentiate from the other really good dudes out there. You can see that rather clearly for the Rookie of the Year recipient Kyle Lewis. This mostly shows up in his outsize production on contact that was showing a persistent gap… until it wasn’t. The end of the season was a bit sour, but we can still see plenty of above average offense going back to his cup of coffee in 2019. He has shown some ability to control the zone with stronger walk rates once pitchers saw the damage he could do. That extends to getting the strikeout rate under control before things started to get away again as the season went on. Surprisingly, his exit velocity does not jump off the page, hence leading to the lesser expectations, which he eventually met at the lower level toward the end of the season. After multiple serious leg injuries in his past it’s possible he wore down over the course of the season, but as short as it was that does not bode well for the future. Alternatively, pitchers may have started to figure him out some, which might be even worse news. At this price it is hard to be really interested given the unknowns, but if he simply does what he just did over a full season he can certainly make good.
Marco Gonzales (123)
Since Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2016 season, Marco Gonzales has shown a couple of rough patches and then a really solid run of performance leading into the present. Strikeouts have occasionally come in short supply, but typically approach or exceed the average with walk rates almost always being an elite-level strength. Add in that he seems to have figured out how to limit exit velocity, and there is a lot to get excited about. Production on contact has subsequently translated quite nicely to help offset the lower strikeout rate. His ability or allowance to pitch deeper into games on a team with some promising offensive pieces should keep the win count up, but this is such a drastic move up the board from last year’s very late picks that it feels like you would need just about everything to go right to return good value.
Dylan Moore (125)
Actual results for Dylan Moore showed up mostly on the good side of average this season, which wasn’t always the case during his half season up in 2019. Even more encouraging is that when his true wOBA met his actual performance it was at the higher level that had already been showing up in the boxscore. Taming the strikeout rate in any way could only help as this has often been the ugliest part of his performance. Finishing the season closer to average should be considered a good sign, and that he has shown such strong walk rates throughout his time in the Show even more encouraging. When making contact he has shown a strong ability to put the ball in the air, and usually at average or higher exit velocity. This has led to average or better expected performance on contact, which he has outperformed persistently. Given his strong athleticism it is possible, if not probable, that he will continue to outperform expectations. Late season wrist and concussion issues curtailed his season, but with his ability to fill up fantasy coffers on top of this impressive performance he should be a highly sought commodity. Add in eligibility all over and it is easy to see why I like him more than Kyle Lewis.
Kyle Seager (209)
It’s been a wild ride for Kyle Seager who used to be really good then he was ok then lousy, and back to pretty good over his last 600 or so plate appearances. A lot of that recent performance has been goosed by the walk rate reaching elite levels, while taking his strikeout rate to very strong levels. Throughout his career he has been able to get the ball in the air with regularity, and at his best that was accompanied by better than average to quite good exit velocity. The poorer stretch of his career stands out rather noticeably when it comes to his contact production, but as gains on the discipline side have come in there has not been a similar improvement in production on contact. Furthermore, you can see how his actual results have lagged behind his better expectations for much of his career. Likely a good deal of which is owed to the shift, but speed has never been a big part of his game, either. In a better hitting environment there might be more to like here, but the poison pill in his contract means he is likely to stay in Seattle this year where his transformation toward old man skills likely continues.
Taijuan Walker (266)
After 32 starts in three years for Arizona, Taijuan Walker found himself back in Seattle for the 2020 season. Well, for some of it, anyway, as he would end up getting traded to the Toronto Blue Jays to close out the season. With both clubs we see a fairly large gap between worse expected results and the better actuals that showed up on the field. The latter living in pretty good places where he has been before, but the expectations seeing him as more of an average or worse pitcher, which he has also been for many parts of his career. A muted strikeout rate from past flirtations with excellence that seems to show little separation from an average or worse walk rate certainly doesn’t make the eyes go agog, while the variation in batted ball characteristics and subsequent production tell the tale of a guy whose sordid injury past has made him hard to peg down for too long. The strong degree of overperformance displayed of late is something he has done at multiple times in his career so there may be some innate ability that would suggest continuation. However, between these periods we generally see tighter grouping so, again, a lot of this depends on how well the body is holding up.
Justus Sheffield (276)
Going around 10 picks later in the Mocks we get to someone who should elicit a bit more excitement in Justus Sheffield. While the actual results were rather night and day over the past two years, you can readily see the true wOBA showing much more stability and hugging the average. Strikeout rates have consistently come in just shy of the average with walk rates around the average and seemingly showing improvement. Sheffield gets hit rather hard, but has a knack for keeping the ball down that has led to average or better expected production on contact throughout his young career. With the park behind him and what looks like an ability to hold up to a regular starter’s workload there is a lot to like from a guy going at this point in a draft.
Luis Torrens (297)
As a Rule V pick coming into 2017 Luis Torrens was pressed into duty far earlier than he was ready to handle. Upon riding the wave, however, he was able to spend 2018 down on the farm with a sip of coffee in 2019 with 78 plate appearances coming this year when he looked a lot like an average MLB hitter. Much of that coming in Seattle where little stands in the way from as much playing time as he can handle. Turning 25 in May means the team should be equally interested in finding out if he can be a useful player going forward. Of course, there is a ton of risk with such a short track record of acceptable hitting, but for those who like to go cheap at catcher he might represent a solid later option.
Evan White (331)
Like the debut for Torrens that saw a young player forced into the deep end, Evan White was similarly pressed into duty probably before he was ready, though everyday play in the Show has to be better for development than playing at alternate sites everyday. Credit to White for gutting out what must have been a frustrating season where he struck out around 40% of the time, all the time. Throwing in an average walk rate helped to an extent, but the gap between these rates was monstrous. The tradeoff for all that whiff is that he hit the ball pretty hard until a late season swoon, and the hard hit balls work well with mostly higher than average launch angles. This led to wondrous production on the contact he did manage with expectations mostly outstripping the actual results he received, much of which seemed to come against lefties. There is a lot of 3TO here, obviously, but if White can manage to whittle his strikeout rate progressively over the next year or two while seeing actual results move toward the higher expectations we might be looking at a wolf in sheep’s clothing. This coming season might be a year early, but dynasty league managers might see a big payoff for a small investment now.
Ty France (332)
Throughout his time in the minor leagues Ty France looked like a pretty good bet to be an average or better hitter someday in MLB. He was a bit slow to acclimate in 2019, but production was much stronger in 2020 and seems pretty well justified by the underlying data. The walk rate came up to average, while managing to keep the strikeout holding around the average. He doesn’t scald the ball as exit velocities were muted, but non-premium exit velocity plays best on liner angles, which he seems to hit often enough. Hence the unintuitive above average production on contact figures despite not blowing up the exit velocity numbers. On a team looking for guys to step up it looks like Ty France will be given the chance to carve out a role for himself early in the year. If things turn more like prior to this year then the team probably moves on, however, there is a big league hitter here who might not smack a bunch of homers, but should be able to contribute to both real and fantasy squads, alike.
Yusei Kikuchi (382)
When Yusei Kikuchi broke into the league he enjoyed more than a modicum of success. A patina, if you will. Then things went very wrong with almost 500 plate appearances of just dreadful performance. The expectations were better, but hardly good. Then the sun rose once more when the calendar flipped to 2020 as he limited production like a mid-rotation pitcher. Strikeouts were up pushing even higher than his best rates upon debut, and he was able to climb that ladder while keeping walk rates mostly better than average. Unlike the earlier good stretch when exit velocities were well-suppressed, this more recent run showed a continuation of the higher exit velocities he had yielded, but with much more frequent downward contact that helped him avoid the damaging hit. This late in a draft you could do a lot worse than someone coming off such a nice run of performance, and if the awful runs were more than injury or attempting to adjust on the fly then you can cut bait for little loss.
Daniel Vogelbach (447)
There is always the chance Daniel Vogelbach can recapture what he showed shortly after breaking into the league when he legitimately went on a heater, but since then it has been a couple steps down the case to the point where his most recent performance was pretty well below average from a guy who cannot really field a position making it tough to stay on a big league roster. The walk rate is somewhat of a saving grace, but being a plodder on the bases mutes some of the advantage. Getting the strikeout rate back below average would be a good start, but to be useful he also needs to get back to hitting the ball hard. Both things were showing better over the most recent run, but there are a whole bunch of ifs that need to go right.
J.P. Crawford (497)
There was a run earlier in his career when J.P. Crawford looked like he could be an above average contributor at the plate, but that peak looks rather lonesome. The stick has mostly come in below average otherwise, though strides have been made to keep the walk rate better than average, and with strong enough walk rates to be a positive without even putting the ball in play. It would help more if the stolen base was a bigger part of his game, but he hasn’t shown a ton of success. Production on contact does not look to be a big part of his game with poor exit velocity that works better if he can get more into the liner zone. Decent defense at shortstop should keep him in the lineup, but only goes so far with such weak contact.
Justin Dunn (517)
Going by the actual results Justin Dunn looks like a pretty good pitcher, but the strong results allowed on contact look to be a mirage due to how often batters are hitting the ball really hard. Getting it up in the air might help suppress the hit rate when they’re staying in the yard, which is nice until it turns the other way. Adding in horrific walk rates makes the sell here even harder. Considering his struggles with lefties, especially, in his young career it is possible Dunn may work better coming out of the bullpen when the matchups might be more favorable. Until then he looks like a ticking time bomb.
Shed Long Jr. (540)
The hitter version of what is likely to come for Justin Dunn is Shed Long Jr. We have around half a season’s worth of data for the fireplug with the first half showing fairly strong production out on the field, but not backed up by the underlying data. When both sides eventually coalesced it was at the lower expected level far removed from the average. It isn’t that he doesn’t hit the ball hard, like J.P. Crawford, though the most recent stretch was showing a concerning downturn, it is more that everything he hits is just so down that it is hard for him to leverage the averagish exit velocity. Throw in average or worse strikeout rates, while walking around the average, and you’re left with a fairly unexciting player whose swoon might even leave him without much opportunity for next year.
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