With the end of the regular season comes a time for reflection for the majority of baseball fans. What went right? What went wrong? You probably have a few ideas where your teams fell short or exceeded expectations, but what about a completely objective point of view? Throughout this season I have shown what batter and pitcher production looks like when we regress balls in play to look more like what the players should have seen using exit velocity and launch angle. The offseason will be no different as I take a team-by-team look at how the season fared for the club, while going a little deeper on players who were selected in the 2 Early Mock Draft. Provided there is a decent amount of history worth looking into. Player analysis will run from 2015 to present regardless of employer.
The order of release is the reverse of the final season ranking report so you can expect to find some depression leading to elation here. A quick review of that previous post can also give you a good idea of how a team rates compared to their peers as these analyses will focus upon each individual team. Lastly, playoff data has been included, which will not impact the first dozen or so teams, but does factor into league averages, and is included within player analysis. It’s going to take some time, but I would like to get one to two of these out each week which should allow for every team being covered before our glorious game returns to continue threshing our hearts.
COL BOS DET MIA PIT TEX ARI SEA KCR BAL WAS
Team Batter Production & Discipline
Other than the Miami Marlins, nobody had a weirder season than the St. Louis Cardinals. Weirdly enough both teams made the expanded playoffs, though hurdles were different for each. While the Marlins had to give playing time to a high volume of replacement-level players, the Cardinals were faced with a litany of seven-inning doubleheaders that held down opportunity relative to other teams with more full schedules. The stop and start early part of the season and the heavy grind later show two different offenses. Patchy alternations of above average or even stronger blips were common in the first half, but did typically come with a corresponding drier spell. Later on we see more consistency, but at average or worse levels giving some indication that the heavy schedule had at least some effect on team production. During that later portion the strikeout rate did tick upward after mostly riding at average or better levels. There was an early spike in the walk rate, but for the most part this was a team that was around average with the late season showing more volatility with shorter above average periods mixed in with much deeper troughs.
Batter Seasonal Line
The gold standard for Cardinals offense in 2020 came from, who else, but, Paul Goldschmidt. His blend of well above average walk and strikeout rates gives him a high platform for offensive capability, but to also thrown in well above average contact from both expected and actual results perspectives show a batter who is still maintaining at a high level. While better against lefties, he more than held his own with same-handed righties. More surprisingly, however, is seeing Brad Miller push to second position. He was at half the output of Goldschmidt in around 75 fewer plate appearances while showing a similarly high walk rate. The expected power was even better, but showed up a bit worse, though still above average. The strikeouts cut into some of that great batted ball production as his worse than average rate was fairly high. No longer swinging from both sides of the plate he continues to be a weaker option against lefties leaving him with plenty of off days to rest up.
Another high walk, veteran lefty, Matt Carpenter, amped up the strikeout rate another notch leading to the full step down in xoWAR where he resides with a couple of other everyday players. Above average expected production on contact came in a good deal shorter, which has been a recurring theme for the hitter. Declining athleticism and getting eaten alive by the shift might be valid justification, but neither of those are going away anytime soon. He came in just ahead of Yadier Molina who is now swinging at everything at this advanced stage of his career. Against lefties he will walk a bit more, but it’s full swing ahead against righties where he ratchets up the rate of balls in play despite no longer showing much to be scared of on that contact. Rounding out the top-five we find Paul DeJong who ran higher than average rates of walks (good) and strikeouts (bad). Regressing his contact paints a better picture against lefties than righties, but in reality he saw anemic results against former that does not seem uncommon on this team. He got to even more than his above average expectations against righties, but was sunk by worse discipline rates.
The rookie Dylan Carlson received some run this year ending up with about a month and a half of plate appearances in a normal season. The switch hitter looked better against lefties, in 15 PA, but held his own against righties, as well while acclimating to the highest level. The approach appears to lean patient with average walk rates and a higher than average strikeout rate. The contact was fairly loud with the small sample against lefties showing a wide split, but with expectations at the higher level, and against righties he continued the above average expectations with actual results coming in more in line with his peers. Regressing balls in play left him as an above average producer, though with no prior track record we have no idea if this is out of line for his skillset. Cutting into the strikeout rate could go a long way for both more balls in play, but also for that contact playing better if he can stay in the fatter parts of the zone.
Taking another step down we arrive at Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader who arrive at similarly below average production in different ways. Both hit lefties well, while struggling to be productive against righties. Bader, especially shows a very wide platoon split that plays well with the advantage, but leaves him well exposed when not. Edman does a better job of controlling the zone with Bader’s strikeout rate spiraling out of control against righties, though he showed stronger production on contact when he did put the ball in play. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill came in as a below replacement hitter with some positives in seeing his strikeout rate find an acceptable level, but in doing so it seems to be robbing him of a good deal of his production on contact. The platoon split was small, because when he gets it he gets it, but despite strong athleticism actual results on contact came in right at his soft expected production.
Another replacement level hitter who saw a ton of time was Kolten Wong who was third on the team in opportunity, put the ball in play often via average walk and well better than strikeout rates, but displaying just no authority when striking the ball. Most of the walks came against righties, against whom he was better, though still far from good. It shouldn’t surprise that he was recently non-tendered, though the glove is strong enough that coupled with what he can do against righties he should pop back above replacement level in the future. The same can probably not be said for Dexter Fowler. With one more year left on his current deal it is likely he will continue to block progress in what is, or at least, was fairly recently, a very deep outfield. He saw better results than he deserved despite weak expectations on contact, and the further he slips away from the average for his discipline rates the less and less he can contribute.
Team Batter Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
When looking at exit velocity we can again see the choppiness early as the team was subjected to rampant stop and start conditions on top of schedule uncertainty. Things mostly settled down at a below average rate for a before closing the season with a bit more volatility. At virtually no point did the team hit the ball harder than average, and we can also see that launch angle, while higher early, fell off during the second half grind where the team had to play some guys more than they would like, others less, and their best players wore down from the constant workload. Despite mediocre, at best, exit velocity the club did spend a good deal of time as an average or better offense when putting the ball in play, though it was rare for expected and actual results to line up with the boxscore typically coming in lower.
Team Pitcher Production & Discipline
Needing your pitchers to get fewer outs is usually a good thing, but with the doubleheader schedule the team couldn’t simply use their best guys and hide their worst, in fact, those lesser arms had to bridge gaps even more frequently. The team enjoyed several stretches where actual performance came in better than average or worse expectations, but consistency was hard to find when they had to reach so deeply into their bag so often. Strikeouts were a strength with multiple runs at or above 30%. There was a nasty bout of not being able to punch batters out in the second quarter, but beyond that they were usually around the average when not excelling. Unfortunately, the walk rate was also fairly elevated cutting into some of the strikeout dominance. A little better than average is the best they could do for the most part with several spikes into well worse than average land. Their best pitcher, Jack Flaherty dealt with a laundry list of issues for most of the season never really getting stretched out or locked in, which would have certainly helped the lesser times look a bit better.
Pitcher Seasonal Line
With their ace not himself the team had to hope another light would shine brighter to make up the difference, but didn’t really get it. Several pitchers were quite good, but none were excellent in anything other than a shorter stint. Leading the charge were Korean import Kwang Hyun Kim in his MLB debut, and Adam Wainwright in his 75th season. The latter gave up some harder contact that fell well short in reality with a below average, but much better strikeout rate than the former. While Kim wasn’t much of a strikeout threat he did very well to limit hard contact with even better results, and both did an outstanding job of limiting the walk. The old hoss led the team in batters faced helping make his below average performance look better against replacement, while Kim wasn’t able to accrue as well due to being used in both the bullpen and as a traditional starter. Both looked a lot better on contact in reality, a common theme for many of their pitchers, which may speak well to the defense or could imply that park factors need adjustment despite already seeing their yard as one of the most favorable for pitchers, already.
One of the biggest benefactors was Dakota Hudson who looked like an above average pitcher even before so much of his contact against lefties went for naught. He lost the zone a bit more with righties, whom he saw less often than lefties, a byproduct of the weird schedule that impacted other righties on the club, as well. An elbow strain cut his season short a couple of weeks before everyone else, but if he can come back with few issues he looks like a fine mid-rotation arm. Due to a massive platoon split, Austin Gomber may profile better as a swingman who can settle a game in the middle, while ducking lefties, because he was outstanding against righties with a big strikeout rate and keeping walks within spitting distance of average. The lefty Andrew Miller used to be a monster, and he can still get there any given day, but injuries have robbed him of his ability to consistently put together good outings. Walks continue to be an issue, but a manageable one thanks to his ability to sit lefties down with aplomb. The three batter rule makes it tougher to have him come in and obliterate a great left-handed batter, but he still profiled nicely against righties even if the strikeouts dried up a bit.
Playing up in smaller roles were Tyler Webb, Alex Reyes and John Gant, each showing above average performance. Lower walk and strikeout rates with weak production was the path for Webb, while Reyes and Gant showed strong strikeout rates with more walks than you would like to see. Reyes was hit a bit harder, but still around the average, and the entire trio saw better actual results than expected on contact. Another pitcher who fit this mold was Genesis Cabrera who struggled to throw enough strikes, but did garner an elite strikeout rate. The massive platoon split indicates he might be a better fit for mid-game relief stints when the matchups align for an inning or two. Any improvement to the walk rate would go a long way, though average contact expectations suggest filling up the zone might have its own downside if he starts getting hit harder.
Despite elite strikeout rates that were only dinged slightly by his average walk rate it was surprising to see Jack Flaherty give up so much hard contact. Actual results came in at the well worse than average expectations, though righties presented at a much lower level than expected. Given the many travails during an already weird season it might be easy to brush off the hard contact, while buying more fully into the strikeout rate leading the 2 Early Mock drafters showing little slippage from their high opinion just a year prior. Moving on we get to Daniel Ponce de Leon who posted a fairly similar line as Flaherty, though with a much worse walk rate. The strikeout helped hide some of his issues, but similar contact expectations were fully met unlike Flaherty’s overperformance giving a real life glimpse of what the ace might have looked like if the ball fell like it should have. Too many walks and too much hard contact is tough to overcome, but the strikeout rate will entice desperate owners.
The rest of this list was not only below average, but also at or below replacement. The most well known name, Carlos Martinez, had a fairly short season, but one where he ironed out a walk issue that had plagued him in recent years. Unfortunately, filling up the zone had the negative benefit of a very low strikeout rate and oodles of hard contact. Another player who wore it worse than most in this unique year, his struggles might not be fully chalked up to skill or talent, but it sure is hard to get excited about a player who was a very good starter not all that long ago.
Team Pitcher Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
Outside of a spike in exit velocity yielded in the third quarter the team ranged from average to a good deal better. This translated better early on from both perspectives with much of the first half showing better than average to quite good suppression of production on contact, but the wheels fell off in the second half as the grind took its toll. Seeing actual results come in much better than expected over long stretches show just how wildly good the defense was for the club, and while some of that may be sustainable it seems reasonable that those gaps should shrink in the future.
Player Analysis in order of 2 Early Mock ADP
It is important to remember throughout, but especially for well established players, that the most plate appearances anybody received this year was 327 including the postseason (378 for a pitcher). Meaning 2020 production is only a narrow slice of what is being shown for entrenched players with a long history. For players where 2020 makes up a larger part of their resumé the more recent data is going to take up more of the space. Considering what every player had to go through this year I do not think it makes sense to over-weight what we saw throughout this season so hopefully incorporating more track record will be more informative than simply showing what occurred this year. Also, the vertical axes will remain locked to make side-by-side comparisons much easier, but throughout this series please pay attention to that x-axis as it will change from player to player.
Jack Flaherty (37)
The third round price on Jack Flaherty would seem to imply that few are lending much credibility to this past season for the ace, though mock drafts directly after the season are probably not the best for incorporating what we all just saw. The incredible stretch in 2019 stands out starkly not only for it’s elite level, but also due to its length as few players find this gear then go on to forget all about it. The weaker performance that came prior was mostly around the average so even downtimes aren’t killer, but he was on his way back in that direction for much of the season. Still, his ability to rack up strikeouts gives him the capability to lead a staff, real or fantasy, even if the overall performance is more average than good or great. We can see little slippage in that elite ability to sit dudes down, though there was a bit in the walk rate as it climbed back over the average by the end of the season after a prolonged period where he was able to sneak under. No coincidence that his outstanding run coincides with that massive gap between strikeouts and walk even at the 2:1 scale. he has also shown prolonged stretches of absolutely nullifying hard contact. Getting hit harder has meant around the average, and curiously, he showed his best ability to keep the ball down this year, though that did not seem to have as strong of an effect as you might think as production on contact trended up throughout the year eventually crossing the average the further you get from the excellent prior year’s effect on the weighted average. Suppressing actual results better than expected has been something of a recurring theme the past 500 or so batters, but not necessarily something that should be banked on as he has ran tighter before.
Paul Goldschmidt (75)
It has been a long, strong career of great production for Paul Goldschmidt. This past sample shows he has lost little as peaks approach past highs and troughs persistently stay above the average in line with the past, as well. He seems to control the zone well with strikeouts showing average or better for the most part. He’ll occasionally spike a walk-heavy stretch, but consistently lives around the average or better realm. Where he has shown a bit of slide is in exit velocity, though he’s still typically putting up average or better hard hit rates. While exit velocity has slowly trended down he has seen the reverse in his launch angles that have steadily risen over earlier levels. You can see fairly well in his production on contact when hand and wrist issues started to chop into what was some of his best production on contact, but more recent bands show a guy who split the difference arriving mostly in line with where he has been for years.
Dylan Carlson (162)
It was a good bet last year that Dylan Carlson would see big league action in 2020, but the big question was when he would be promoted. Surprisingly, he would get that call 20 or so days into the season, which works out to be just enough time to guarantee an extra year of team control. Early on he showed some difficulty adjusting to the league after his work at the alternate site could never approach game speed. However, things really got cooking over the course of the year. His strikeout rate will be tough to carry if it continues around 30%, but he did show some ability to adjust with a goosed up walk rate to well above average levels after coming in lighter prior. It’s a very short sample, but encouraging, nonetheless. The more encouraging thing was seeing his exit velocity trend up quickly once he had seen the league a bit. Production on contact mostly tracked along with that exit velocity increase ending up in a good place with both pedestrian expectations and worse actual results moving in lockstep to the higher level. As a switch hitter he showed better against lefties, but this is such a small sample the important takeaway is that he acclimated to the highest level and even showed the ability to shine.
Tommy Edman (177)
A scintillating 2019 firmly entrenched Tommy Edman in the minds of many, though it is fairly evident that he overperformed with true wOBA seeing him as more of an average or better player with spikes above and below of similar amplitude. Last winter it was easy to suggest his speed and ability to spray the ball around should help him continue to overperform, but in this past season he saw both perspectives collide at the lower level leading to very pedestrian looking offense. Against lefties he was pretty much the same guy, for what it is worth, but much weaker contact left him looking exposed against righties where he put up a replacement level line. Average walk rates came with strikeout rates a bit better than average, but not wildly so. The exit velocity fall off matched up fairly well with his earliest forays into the league, though he approaches the average in between, and seemed to be creeping back up there most recently. The uptick in exit velocity corresponds very well with the bulge in his offense, but both perspectives saw him as much more of an average producer. Controlling the zone seems likely to continue, and if he can get the exit velocity up a bit he can be a fine contributor, but it’s a lot of ifs.
Adam Wainwright (222)
At 38 years old Adam Wainwright had to go to market for the first time this past winter after a couple of extensions with the Cardinals that more than paid for themselves. It wasn’t difficult to see him going back to the only team he had ever known, and he finds himself in the exact same situation this year. We’re only capturing the back end of an illustrious career (Statcast era started in 2015) so this might paint an overly negative picture for a guy who was one of the best in the game at one point. His actual wOBA allowed this year looked every bit like he had found the time machine, but expectations were much more tepid seeing him as more like an average pitcher. That, itself, an improvement over the mostly worse than average results he had been generating for some time. The strikeout rate mostly stayed elevated around the average, but he took a chainsaw to his walk rate improving an area that had slipped away from him in recent seasons. He even managed to generate soft contact with his strong exit velocity suppression. A bit part of this is likely due to the shortness of the season actually helping someone out. We saw all of the good Wainwright and none of the version who loses a gear when the arm starts barking deeper into a season. The production on contact has been falling shorter of worse expectations for a good deal of time, but it hadn’t happened much prior so hard to project that forward. It’s been a great career for Waino, and if he doesn’t find a new employer he will be able to leave the game with his head held high.
Kwang Hyun Kim (250)
His first appearance came as a reliever before a scary kidney issues saw him shelved for a bit. When he came back he was thrust into the rotation out of necessity where he mostly showed pretty well. True wOBA saw him as a bit better than average consistently over the course of the season with actual results showing some overperformance early before melding with expectations gradually. Perhaps a byproduct of being a new face with some good deception. A strikeout rate well shy of the average won’t blow the doors off in fantasy, but did come with a superb walk rate he maintained well. Additionally, limiting hard contact was a strength with better than average exit velocity throughout that translated quite well to production on contact where we see a continuous gap between his good expectations and great results. At this price point he has some ability to provide surplus return, but with a shallow track record buoyed by overperformance on contact that may or may not continue he is not without risk.
Paul DeJong (256)
When Paul DeJong burst onto the scene hitting dingers galore, while showing the kind of discipline splits that beg for correction, it was apparent he needed to refine his approach. Gradual improvement to both walks and strikeouts followed, and while the former mostly stuck around this past year the latter was back on it’s bullshit. It’s pretty tough to remain productive despite whiffing this often, but something he had shown in the past. This year saw his production on contact fall back to the average, a place he has been quite often, and not nearly enough to offset all the empty plate appearances. His ability to put the ball in the air is without question, but the exit velocity has wavered between strong bursts and much longer troughs leading to up and down performance for much of his post-debut career. As a shortstop the bat doesn’t necessarily need to get to average to be able to contribute, but that does little for your fantasy team if the strikeout rate continues at the higher level. Betting on a bounceback might be reasonable given the circumstances this past year, though, we have seen much more of the bad than the good.
Giovanny Gallegos (259)
The strong success for Giovanny Gallegos so far doesn’t surprise given the absurd gap he has shown between strikeouts and walks. Harder contact early has linearly softened, while launch angles have gradually increased leading to a fairly dramatic improvement when batters do make contact, and bodes well as strikeouts have mostly fallen off from incredible rates to merely elite. Actual results have mostly fallen in line of late after continuous overperformance early. The closer role is wide open here, and while the team might prefer to use him earlier, it would be out of deference to how very good he is at retiring batters.
Dakota Hudson (283)
Fewer questions about the role remain for Dakota Hudson, though more dire injury questions are still on the docket after he closed the season with an elbow strain. The performance has been a bit uneven, but mostly pretty useful. Actual results have appeared better over a few different stretches, but have always felt the pull of gravity and gotten back to expectations. Strikeouts have not been a strength coming in shy of the average, and he compounds the weakness by consistently walking batters an average or worse level. Throw in that more of his career has seen harder than average contact and there isn’t much to excite, but there have been a couple troughs where he was able to dominate batters suggesting that when things are going right physically he can make up for the walk rate. Launch angles came up a notch sometime last year, though have mostly settled at their higher level. Despite the threat of hard contact the lower angles have mostly helped him stave off getting pounded with much of his career ranging from average to a good deal better, especially when his best runs by expectations show even better results.
Yadier Molina (353)
Much like Wainwright last year, Yadier Molina reaches free agency for the first time at quite an advanced age thanks to a couple of fruitful extensions. Much like Wainwright it is expected he will be back, though given the league-wide dearth at the position it would not shock even he went somewhere else. The performance has fallen off to mostly below average levels despite the occasional spike upward. This is a good deal below some impressive runs prior. A hyper aggressive approach remains the same with walk rates closer to average than his well better strikeout rates. The exit velocity, however, has mostly fallen off a cliff lately. The higher than average launch angle works better with harder velocity leading to the last 600 or more plate appearances almost universally coming in at a worse than average clip for production on contact.
Alex Reyes (372)
Once upon a time Alex Reyes was one of the best pitching prospects in the game, but major injuries to both elbow and shoulder since have lowered his star considerably. Asking him to provide volume at this point seems like a tough task, but the stuff still absolutely plays giving him a chance to be the kind of reliever you can use against great batters with the game on the line. When on the field he has been decent enough with better results earlier, and more pedestrian since. The walk rate has mostly stuck above average with gradual increase over this season getting him back to flirting with 30%. Of more importance is seeing his walk rate go from bad to worse with few signs of improvement. Despite the free passes he has done a great job of limiting hard contact, and also getting it in the air enough to make the outs even easier. Production on contact has stayed below average despite glacial increase. The thing he needs more than any other is just to have a normal year where he gets his work in, gets stretched out, and figures out how to get out even more big league batters.
Kolten Wong (373)
The recently cut loose Kolten Wong is free to sign wherever he likes after spending his entire career with St. Louis. The glove is good enough to keep him out there despite struggles with lefties, but he hasn’t strayed all that far from the average for long throughout his career. Actual results have spiked above a few times, but aren’t fully backed by expectations showing that he can cluster good results, but that they don’t necessarily add up to a good season. His past stretch shows what that line looks like when he doesn’t get the outsized burst of good fortune. He supplements his line pretty well via the walk, which he leveraged quite well in 2019 by racking up steals, but that isn’t something he has shown throughout his career. Avoiding the strikeout has been a consistent asset. All that extra contact plays mostly down, and that is the direction his exit velocity has trended for quite a while now. The combination of both factors show weak production on contact that seems to hold him back from being more than an average-ceiling player.
Austin Gomber (385)
Quietly, the lefty Austin Gomber has racked up a growing sample of average performance. The strikeout rate is heading in the right direction as it has pushed above average, but a brief affair with better walk rates ended abruptly. His exit velocity allowed has closed with the average after better suppression early with production on contact staying at worse than average levels. If he can get either the walk rate or the exit velocity a bit lower he represents a pretty decent late round arm, and if he does both you could see him push to another gear, while leaving you in a position where if he doesn’t you can churn and burn.
Tyler O’Neill (391)
Early above average production for Tyler O’Neill seemed a bit undeserved with success since then becoming more and more fleeting as results have entwined with his lower expectations. He has made tremendous strides to take his unplayable strikeout rate down to average or worse levels, while simultaneously taking his walk rate up to average levels. The problem is that the commitment to the zone has robbed him of the prodigious power that had been his carrying tool. Launch angles have also fallen off picking up acceleration of late as they close with the average. Translating these two facets show once strong expectations and even better actual results flip-flopping ot the tune of both perspectives aligning fairly tightly at below average levels. If he can find that balance point between keeping pitchers honest while still obliterating more than mistakes there is an above average player in there, but we have yet to see him walk and chew gum at the same time.
Carlos Martinez (424)
It feels like he has been around forever, but Carlos Martinez will mark this upcoming year as his 29th on the planet. He has always shown a good deal of volatility in his performance, but that had usually ran from a bit worse than average to well better. This most recent run, however, shows some of the worst of his career using either expectation. The walk rate cratered after spending plenty of time oscillating around the average. The scary walk spike in 2019 fell back to career norms around the average, but that spike did coincide with very soft contact, which also reverted back to higher levels around the average. Career worst results on balls in play was the result standing out starkly from career ranges that mostly stayed between average and a good deal better. The role will likely continue to be undefined meaning he might be an ok starter if he bounces back or a pretty good reliever on a team with a few good options late in the game. Being one of your last picks might give some time for dominoes to fall, but also ensures he can be easily cut if the breaks do not go right.
Harrison Bader (438)
Very good defenders who can hit lefties pretty well are quite useful to big league teams, and really hard to carry on fantasy teams other than in daily leagues. Struggles with righties have been common driven by strikeout rates approaching a third of the time. Early overperformance may have raised fan expectations to an unrealistic extent and since then actual performance has been pretty tight with the lower expectations. The aforementioned strikeout issue shows up prominently with little improvement in sight, but it should be noted he also walks at an average or better level. Contact has been on the softer side, but with enough elevation to not preclude average or better performance at various times. The overperformance stretch stands out prominently, but expectations have lingered above the average over a couple of stretches since then.
Andrew Miller (464)
Take a moment to appreciate the absurd strikeout to walk gap that Andrew Miller put up a few years back coming from both strong walk avoidance, but also, off the chart strikeouts. Since then both rates have gone the wrong direction to meet somewhere in the middle mostly offsetting each other. Performance has crept up toward the average in more recent seasons including a pretty rough stretch not that long ago before setting down. With much mileage on the tires he has dealt with his fair share of injuries, but on the bright side his contact has improved a bit after a recent surge. The strong control of the zone has always masked contact production that was much closer to his peers, but will need to be an area he limits now that his best stuff his behind him. As a lefty who might require more days off and several other options this seems like a poor direction to go when speculating saves.
Daniel Ponce de Leon (488)
Fairly strong initial success for Daniel Ponce de Leon has mostly fallen by the wayside more recently. Actual results appear to have come in a bit worse belying average expectations, but even those turned up more recently to meet with those results at the worse level. The walk rate stands out as a problem area after being more around the average with strong strikeout rates earlier. While those have held steady they have lost importance foothold compared to the spiraling walk rate. The rash of free passes hasn’t come with much improvement to exit velocity, though expected production on contact isn’t egregiously far from the average. There is no question that he can get back to being an above average pitcher, but it will require reining in the strikeouts. Easier said than done if mechanical issues relate to injury issues, but certainly within his, ahem, control.
Brad Miller (549)
Once thought a switch-hitting shortstop with patience and power, Brad Miller has shown a couple of outlandish runs that contrast sharply with the rest of his career being on the wrong side of average. This past season happened to be one of those scorch stretches where his production leaps off the page, though did end up falling all the way back to normal by the end of this short year. Getting the strikeout back around the average helped, and by the end of the year he had pushed his walk rate up into elite territory as pitchers realized it was best to not make a mistake. The exit velocity has always been a decent-sized strength, but more recently he has shown a better ability to get the ball off the ground even if it is more of a hill and valley approach of adjusting to pitchers. Production on contact shows that much of his wonderful offense was deserved in this season, unlike the last heater when expectations were lower, and the rest of his career where things floated more around the average. He’s no longer a switch-hitter, he was probably never a shortstop, but the patience and power approach lives on and if he is just facing righties there is a decent chance he can help a club score runs.
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