With the end of the regular season comes a time for reflection for the majority of baseball fans. What went right? What went wrong? You probably have a few ideas where your teams fell short or exceeded expectations, but what about a completely objective point of view? Throughout this season I have shown what batter and pitcher production looks like when we regress balls in play to look more like what the players should have seen using exit velocity and launch angle. The offseason will be no different as I take a team-by-team look at how the season fared for the club, while going a little deeper on players who were selected in the 2 Early Mock Draft. Provided there is a decent amount of history worth looking into. Player analysis will run from 2015 to present regardless of employer.
The order of release is the reverse of the final season ranking report so you can expect to find some depression leading to elation here. A quick review of that previous post can also give you a good idea of how a team rates compared to their peers as these analyses will focus upon each individual team. Lastly, playoff data has been included, which will not impact the first dozen or so teams, but does factor into league averages, and is included within player analysis. It’s going to take some time, but I would like to get one to two of these out each week which should allow for every team being covered before our glorious game returns to continue threshing our hearts.
Team Batter Production & Discipline
No team was hit harder, nor for longer, by COVID-19 than the Miami Marlins. The constant cycling of fresh bodies meant 37 different players threw a pitch and another 25 swung the bat. The mid-season trade for second tier star Starling Marte further complicates things, but in a much better way. Suffice to say the choppiness of playing time makes it tough to draw broad conclusions from team-level data. Throughout the early confusion the team was an average or worse lineup, but showed some flashes toward the end of the season before the offense went to ground in the playoffs. The later lineup, which you would think would better represent what they were trying to do, seemed to strike out a bit less often, though the walk rate became more erratic later on with similar peaks and lower troughs. Probably best just to move along to the individual lines.
Batter Seasonal Line
There were several players who did see something like a full (shortened) season. Splitting time at first base and designated hitter, Jesus Aguilar enjoyed a wonderful bounce back season showing good ability to control the zone with a bit of thump even if actual results were a bit suppressed possibly due to his relative lack of speed. Unlike Aguilar, Garrett Cooper did miss time, specifically a month with the virus, though when on the field similar discipline stats came with even better production on contact. Leading the team in plate appearances while supplying more good than great offense like the prior two was Brian Anderson who struck out at a fairly high rate, but showed a good mix of power and patience. Miguel Rojas was well on his way to earning the extension he signed prior to the season before dealing with his own COVID issues. He has turned himself into a lefty-mashing shortstop who is going to play everyday and throw in some stolen bags. Matt Joyce threw in his usual patience and pop against righties looking like a better version of Corey Dickerson even if a bit older.
In Dickerson’s battles with the strikeout he has proven quite victorious as he punches out well better than average, but with below average walk and weak contact he is losing the war of being a good hitter. His line wasn’t all that different from Jon Berti who has proven he can play all over fairly well and be a nightmare for a battery once he gets on base. In his time with Miami Starling Marte did not knock the cover off the ball, but encouragingly did steal five bases and continued to look like the rare right-handed batter who handles fellow righties pretty well, while still being around average or better when having the traditional advantage. I wish we had gotten to see more of Jazz Chisholm, but he looks worth the wait. It was stop and go for Jorge Alfaro who showed his three-true outcomes approach. Being a little better was a good thing for Lewis Brinson, but it still looks like not good enough. Jonathan Villar had the rare distinction of being traded from a playoff team mid-season, though looked like an average hitter if you give him full credit for the overperformance on contact due to his speed, and much worse if you go straight by the expectations.
Team Batter Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
Again, with so many replacement players in the mix it is tough to get a read on the actual baseball players who performed when looking at the team-level data. A problem that will only grow worse when looking at the pitchers. The offense looks mostly slash and dash with so many athletic players not necessarily hitting the ball extremely hard, but keeping the ball down to beat out hits. Production on contact unsurprisingly peaked during the best run of exit velocity in the middle of the season, though both aspects moved back downward to close out the year. Miami is firmly a team in transition on the position player side, but there are good ballplayers here, and more on the come. This is somewhat evident when looking above at how many players were taken in the 2 Early Mock drafts, though the number of star-level players continues to fall short.
Team Pitcher Production & Discipline
As previously mentioned, the Miami Marlins had 37 different players throw a pitch this season. That is astounding and leaves a manager tearing his hair out trying to figure out how to get through a game, a series, a week, a season. Troughs around or below the average were frequent throughout the year, but when things were bad they were pretty bad. Spikes, especially early, were even more common, and often showing wildly exaggerated offense allowed. Even after the team more or less gelled into what they had hoped there was still far too much loud contact. Pedestrian strike out rates deserve some of the blame. Not being able to dial up an unproductive out when you need it becomes glaring over an entire season. It does look like they were a bit more stingy with the walk toward the end of the season, though even then there was bad overlap.
Pitcher Seasonal Line
Leading the charge was Pablo Lopez who led the team in batters faced, but what really drove him up the charts was a great ability to control the zone, while giving up average or better contact. Matching him on a rate basis was Sixto Sanchez whose mid-season callup meant he was well behind in volume. The phenom showed a bit of a reverse split due to his excellent cambio. Righties walked more and struck out less, but still struggled to make solid contact. Showing similar overall production was another youngster, Sandy Alcantara, though he got there by holding his own against lefties and faring pretty well against righties. Less heralded, Elieser Hernandez looked outstanding striking out nearly a third of batters with better than average walks and better than average contact against righties, to boot. Lefties tuned him up a bit more on the contact, but he was still an above average pitcher against them. Until a lat strain ended his season in early September. Certainly a guy to keep an eye on in March.
Using regressed contact Trevor Rogers looks like a pretty good pitcher. He walks a few too many guys, but gets plenty of strikeouts and held lefties to a pretty low xwOBA, while righties dinged him a bit worse. The problem is that his real life numbers on contact were just absurdly higher making him a potential steal later if that regresses. It would be helpful to add some observations to the data. Having a realistic chance at getting some saves this year, Yimi Garcia should have some late round interest as a third closer who will strike enough out to have utility when not getting saves. Former closer Brandon Kintzler was serviceable, but unlikely to be coming back. The rogue’s gallery who saw action this year doesn’t strike fear into too many hearts with Jordan Yamamoto and Robert Dugger being especially bad. Caleb Smith will be covered in the Arizona review.
Team Pitcher Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
During their best run of the year during the second quarter the team seems to have made a concerted effort to keep the ball down as launch angles cratered in a good way if you’re the pitcher. It was a brief blip in this broad night sky as the team saw plenty more of what happens when high velocity and elevated trajectories match up. That occurred coming off the best run as launch angle steadily normalized to go with now higher exit velocity leading to the their second worst stretch. The worst coming to close out the first quarter when contact characteristics were similar. Again, tough to get a read on the team when so much time went to replacement level players just trying to do their best to cover for guys. The fact that loud stretches came throughout the season should at least indicate that it should be an area of concern.
Player Analysis in order of 2 Early Mock ADP
It is important to remember throughout, but especially for well established players, that the most plate appearances anybody received this year was 327 including the postseason (378 for a pitcher). Meaning 2020 production is only a narrow slice of what is being shown for entrenched players with a long history. For players where 2020 makes up a larger part of their resumé the more recent data is going to take up more of the space. Considering what every player had to go through this year I do not think it makes sense to over-weight what we saw throughout this season so hopefully incorporating more track record will be more informative than simply showing what occurred this year. Also, the vertical axes will remain locked to make side-by-side comparisons much easier, but throughout this series please pay attention to that x-axis as it will change from player to player.
Starling Marte (40)
This past season was more on the lower end of what Starling Marte can provide, but similar to past softer runs, and the rest of the time shows a well above average batter who can can hit for average, steal some bases, score and drive guys in. The power has always been the weaker portion of his game, but it has not held him back from being a second or third round pick in the past, and if he gets back on track with Miami you could be looking at a slight discount. Avoiding the strikeout has always been a big part of his game, and he will typically mix in enough walks to keep pitchers honest while coming in below average compared to the league. Exit velocity has generally been below, though often popping above even if briefly. This is why his power has always been on the lower end, though he still shows above average production on contact throughout most of his career. Without the steals this is more of a steady hitter, but with few signs of slippage this aspect of his game takes him from a good to potentially great fantasy player.
Sixto Sanchez (77)
The other top-100 pick for the Marlins in the 2 Early Mock was the young hurler Sixto Sanchez. A bit of prospect fatigue had started to settle in after being such a hyped prospect for so long, but 2020 would mark the debut of the principle return of the J.T. Realmuto. What we saw was a guy with a good fastball and a great changeup, which gives him a future as big league rotation piece, but also hints that there might be struggles with same-handed righties in his future as this miserable league sees him more often. The short season showed a wonderful start before production slowly and gradually moved toward the average. The strikeout rate fell off from average or above to well below, while the walk rate showed up similarly moving from pretty good to pretty bad. He does a great job of keeping the ball down as well as coaxing average or a bit better exit velocity out of the opposition. That ability helped suppress his production contact to be a bit better than average, though showing some creep at the very end. It’s a small sample in a weird season, but this feels a touch aggressive on Sixto Sanchez. It is quite possible he finds another gear next year, but pitchers who prioritize grounders over strikeouts in fantasy are hard to have at the top of your staff.
Sandy Alcantara (107)
Another player who was acquired via trade in the past few years, Sandy Alcantara has really found some stuff that is going to let him excel as a starting pitcher. He loses the zone a bit against lefties, but has been pretty good against righties, and you can see the last quarter of 2019 and into 2020 he has taken his game up a notch. Previously he was more of an average guy who would show some spikes in either direction, but the transformation has put him in the conversation for top of rotation status. Not really a big strikeout guy as he has been more around the average, lessening the walk was a big part of becoming a much better pitcher. He has also suppressed contact fairly well in his career with typically better than average exit velocity allowed, and keeping the ball down really well of late. The couple of bad spikes in his contact production stand out for their infrequency with so much more of his time spent in the good place. The Marlins rotation is quickly looking like the strength of their team.
Pablo Lopez (127)
Giving the team a fourth player in the top-130, and third starting pitcher, the Marlins show that their low ranking on the season was very much due to COVID-19 stuff much more than their team truly being amongst the dregs. During this past season Pablo Lopez was the absolute best on the team. Throughout his brief career you an see average or better performance, occasionally quite a bit better, but outside of one disaster run he consistently keeps his team in games. He does so by running average strikeout rates with a much better walk rate that leads to strong gaps once we put these two on a 2:1 scale. The contact suppression shows a similar story as his overall production allowed. He doesn’t typically give up hard contact with exit velocity mostly better than average and does a good job of keeping the ball down, especially of late. If he can continue the gains shown this past year you are looking at one of the better pitchers in the game, and even if he doesn’t there is a nice Steady Eddie type of pitcher as your third or fourth starter.
Jonathan Villar (132)
Bouncing around from team to team so often isn’t a great look, but Jonathan Villar’s recent history is one of hot, nasty speed. He can get you the bags you need, but unfortunately he hasn’t also put up fantastic stats with the bat since closer to 2015. Even then his regressed production looks far more in line with what he has done since so that was probably just a great season where everything came together. There have been times where he has been virtually unplayable due to the poor performance like that 500 PA run starting at 900, he strikes out too much, the walks are fairly volatile ranging from above average to well below. The exit velocity has mostly settled in around the average with what looks like a fairly long running trend subtly heading downward, and while he has done a much better job of getting the ball off the ground compared to the first half of this sample you are still looking at a ton of topped balls, which is probably a fine approach considering his pedestrian exit velocity and very good wheels. He has shown that when things are going well his ok contact can continuously manifest as better actual production leaving him as a fairly useful player. However, with Villar it is all about the stolen bases and whatever he gives you with the bat is bonus.
Brian Anderson (160)
Being able to give good glove at not only third base, but also in rightfield makes Brian Anderson a good real life player. That he has mostly been a pretty useful hitter makes him closer to a very good one. In fantasy, however, he is very middle of the road, however. He can help you in each category, but probably will not lead the league in any. Between his offensive contributions and the defensive eligibility you can see why you have to pay a tenth round price for a fairly ordinary player, though this past or two season show him making some fairly big changes to his game. The overall production tell us he has seen some of the best of his career of late, though actual has fairly consistently outstripped true when that had not really happened for him before.
The strikeout rate stabilized near 30%, typically not a place you want to be unless you have prodigious power, and the walk rate had fallen to more average than the well above he had sustained throughout his career. Despite the extra strikeouts we can see exit velocity this year was down dramatically from the past, however, there was also a subtle pushing up of his launch angle, and when including that factor you can see his production on contact was amongst the best of his career. Yes, he did outstrip expectations, but this may be an example of a player figuring out how to better select the pitches he swings at, which has some downside in the form of punchouts, but seems to be giving him much better production on contact, of much more worth to fantasy players than a sustainable increase in, say, walk rate. Those who have been waiting for Brian Anderson to pick a direction might be starting to see that take place in the form of a more powerful hitter.
Isan Diaz (217)
A team grabbed Isan Diaz for some reason after he opted out for most of 2020, but we can take a quick look at what he has done in his brief time. The production has been persistently below average, though a bit better of late than at his debut. The strikeout rate has tipped upward while walks have mostly cratered from previously excellent levels. He does show above average exit velocity and seems to get the ball in the air quite often, but the combination of the two aspects has led to subpar production on contact. He is kind of left in the middle as a guy who wants to elevate to celebrate, but doesn’t really smoke the ball well enough for that to be a viable strategy. What you are left with his a lot of soft contact in the air. Still, as a 24 year old next year coming off a lost season due to something out of his control it would stand to reason that this book should remain open a bit longer.
Brandon Kintzler (241)
Not a great reliever by any stretch, Brandon Kintzler is quite serviceable as a worm-burning, soft contact pitcher who doesn’t feature a prominent platoon split, which makes him fairly useful for the ninth inning. Pinch hit scenarios are less productive and you can use your wipe out relievers when you absolutely need an unproductive out earlier in the game. Kintzler has shown below average strikeout rates for years, but the production on contact does allow him to be a fairly useful pitcher more due to trajectory than overwhelming the batter’s ability to hit the ball hard. Still, if Kintzler isn’t getting saves here or elsewhere, as a free agent, then he holds very little value in a fantasy league so even a 16th round selection seems aggressive having no idea where he lands or what his role will be next year.
Elieser Hernandez (242)
The lat strain for Elieser Hernandez is somewhat concerning for next year, but being shutdown in early September will give him the chance at plenty of recovery for a normal Spring Training ramp up. If everything goes to plan he should represent a strong value on this 17th round ADP. Of course if he looks fine he could also move up the board a good deal. The surge in strikeout rate while simultaneously improving the walk rate is extremely encouraging, and helped turn what had been fairly average production into well better.
Rather obvious, however, is the fact that his actual production has far outstripped his mostly fine expectations, and it looks to mostly be driven by seeing the ball in the air so very often. That’s a fine outcome when he was suppressing exit velocity quite well, but this past season saw him get hit a bit harder due to being in the zone so much. Still, so many fly balls can be pretty scary as any well struck ball has a chance to leave the yard. The fact that he still gives up so much contact even with fine expectations, and so persistently throughout his career, at that, does temper some of the enthusiasm at the discipline stuff. If this is where he can improve next year then you’re looking at a great pitcher, but much more likely is that even if he can improve on keeping the ball in the yard it will require some giveback to those strong strikeout to walk gaps.
Jon Berti (265)
When he first burst on the league Jon Berti showed strong offensive production to go with a strong speed base that was already yielding actual stolen bags and not just the potential for returns so many other speedsters allow us to dream upon. Missing two months with an oblique injury was a setback, but he was starting to show by the end of this season that he can be more than a stolen base threat. He has done well to bring the strikeout rate down to manageable levels around the average, while seeing his walk rate skyrocket to areas typically only seen by the most powerful sluggers in the game. That, however, is not Berti’s game as his well below average exit velocity shows and his low trajectories confirm, the home run is not Jon Berti’s goal. Like other slash and dash players he has shown that he can run average or better production on contact despite the softly hit balls, and that he has consistently overperformed that expected production so far is something that should be baked in due to the uniqueness of his skillset. Having middle infield eligibility and likely to add outfield makes him a great target for those who like a lot of positional flexibility, while potentially being a three-category contributor.
Jesus Aguilar (275)
Though not quite all the way back to the strong production shown by Jesus Aguilar when he first broke into the league, this past season saw him put his worst stretch behind him and get back to being the kind of above average producer he needs to be given his defensive ability. Cutting his punchouts down to around 20% has proven useful. Walking at an average or better level over the past 500 plate appearances has allowed for a nice positive gap with strikeouts for almost an entire season. The exit velocity doesn’t scream off the page, but the angles are generally on a line or higher. While the production on contact isn’t anywhere near the very strong levels he showed earlier in his career he is putting up something around the average. If this newer version who controls the zone better, but at a cost to power continues you’re looking at a player who shouldn’t be overly interesting, and especially so if the National League stubbornly refuses to adopt the designated hitter.
Garrett Cooper (323)
The designated hitter is important for Aguilar, because Garrett Cooper looks like a very similar type of hitter at the plate, while being similarly chained to first base. It is hard for him to be productive when he is striking out near 30% of the time, but the length of that poorer run somewhat obscures that he has had runs at the lower level, and since he pretty consistently walks at an average or better clip that means those lower levels are going to see a nice walk gap on the 2:1 K:BB scale above. Aguilar has shown more of this, but both are capable, and when it comes to contact Cooper has a slight advantage by more consistently hitting the ball harder than average. That has come with much lower launch angles, but even here he has seen some improvement. Between both aspects the production on contact just looks so much better. Issues with injury might offset some of the gap here, but if I can get Cooper almost 50 slots later I would lean that way.
Jorge Alfaro (333)
The other piece in the J.T. Realmuto trade, Jorge Alfaro has shown that he strongly embraces the three true outcome philosophy. It is really hard to be a productive player when you are striking out 30-40% of the time. Being a catcher is step one in avoiding losing playing time, but beyond that he has helped himself with the walk at times. However, what allows him to be something like the averagey hitter we see above despite striking out so often is that he has a real knack for obliterating a baseball. His exit velocity has almost never drifted below the average, and often peaked amongst the league leaders. This isn’t directly translating to home run production due to getting on top of the ball so much, which does not seem to be something that is going away. This is kind of the Yandy Diaz model, but surprisingly it is the catcher who is better able to utilize this skillset due to his rare, for the position, speed. Alfaro is going to burst out for an incredible season at some point, but until he starts getting the ball off the ground he seems like more of a luxury C2 than the kind of catcher you want to build your team around.
Corey Dickerson (371)
Throughout his career Corey Dickerson has shown tremendous highs and deep, dark lows, and often enough within a single season. This makes him hard to rely upon, but in a shallow position like outfield it is likely he will be drafted everywhere this spring. The strides he has taken to bring his strikeout rate down to average or better levels is to be commended. He still doesn’t walk much, but making more contact is generally a good thing. Except when reducing the walk becomes a higher priority than being a good hitter. His exit velocity fell off pretty hard this year going to career low depths, and he seemed caught a bit in between trying to go back to his old flyballing ways or settle into the harder, lower contact that had helped him the year prior. What was left wasn’t pretty. It would not be unexpected for Corey Dickerson to have another good season at the plate, I just wouldn’t want to pay to find out.
Miguel Rojas (481)
The shortstop Miguel Rojas had been a fairly pedestrian player throughout his career with production breaching the average on up spikes and looking unplayable in the troughs. Then toward the end of the season in 2019 he started to look a lot better with true wOBA lagging slightly, but still representing a higher level than he had been able to put together. This weird season where he missed a bunch of time casts shade on that noticeable increase to performance, but when you factor in his stolen bases on a team that loves to run you could be looking at a serviceable shortstop you can get with one of your last picks. Hardly ever striking out is a good start, and for much of his career he has walked more than the 2:1 rule of thumb with strikeouts. The big change is that he has hit the ball much, much harder. To see a batter do this without a pulse in strikeouts or a big change in trajectory is pretty uncommon, and as that exit velocity has increased you can see the production on contact getting up around the average. Not a league-winning player or anything, but Rojas could be the rare back of draft pick who could stick on your roster all season.
Trevor Rogers (506)
It was a very limited run for Trevor Rogers, but I have a feeling he will be a good topic of discussion this offseason. Any starting pitcher striking out 25-30% of batters would. The walk rate was around the average so no big favors there, but there was massive disagreement in his contact production this year. This manifests in the top chart as a large gap between the obscenely high actual and solid true wOBA rates. Rogers did a fairly good job of keeping the ball down, though exit velocity in this small sample was typically average or worse. The actual results are literally off the chart for stretches and showing a persistent gap over these 30 or so balls in play. This is not an Elieser Hernandez situation where playing with flyballs is akin to playing with fire so if actual contact yielded does fall in line with expected next year you are looking at an average or better pitcher who can fill up your strikeout bucket. Worth a flyer, maybe worth a lot more, but currently he is buried under enough detritus that your investment should be cheap.
Yimi Garcia (533)
With Kintzler likely to move on next year’s save-earner could be anybody. Heck, it could even be Yimi Garcia as one enterprising drafter demonstrated. As far as relievers go he has been a pretty good one outside of a spike throughout a good chunk of last year. Actual production was a bit closer to the average than the better true wOBA, but he has shown some crossover there throughout his career so I would stick with the regressed rates looking forward. The important thing is that he got the strikeout rate back through the 30% roof and he didn’t have to walk the world to get there. Like Elieser he is going to put the ball in the air a ton, which might actually help his cases in the ninth as it would be easier to put your best defensive outfield out there then rather than mid-game. He has helped his cause by making sure those flyballs are generally hit softer than average. This early the reliever market is a complete mystery, but at a cost of nothing there is a decent chance Yimi Garcia can pay out in spades next year.
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