With the end of the regular season comes a time for reflection for the majority of baseball fans. What went right? What went wrong? You probably have a few ideas where your teams fell short or exceeded expectations, but what about a completely objective point of view? Throughout this season I have shown what batter and pitcher production looks like when we regress balls in play to look more like what the players should have seen using exit velocity and launch angle. The offseason will be no different as I take a team-by-team look at how the season fared for the club, while going a little deeper on players who were selected in the 2 Early Mock Draft. Provided there is a decent amount of history worth looking into. Player analysis will run from 2015 to present regardless of employer.
The order of release is the reverse of the final season ranking report so you can expect to find some depression leading to elation here. A quick review of that previous post can also give you a good idea of how a team rates compared to their peers as these analyses will focus upon each individual team. Lastly, playoff data has been included, which will not impact the first dozen or so teams, but does factor into league averages, and is included within player analysis. It’s going to take some time, but I would like to get one to two of these out each week which should allow for every team being covered before our glorious game returns to continue threshing our hearts.
COL BOS DET MIA PIT TEX ARI SEA KCR BAL WAS STL HOU CHC CWS LAA TOR NYM SFG
Team Batter Production & Discipline
Back to back division titles put the Twins in the playoffs for the third time in four years, but the results were the same once the portcullis closed as the team lost their 18th consecutive postseason game. The club has not won a playoff series since 2002, and you have to go back to their World Series winning team in 1991 to find the one before that. Prolonged down cycles contribute a good deal here, but the team has been playing exciting, good baseball for the past few years so little reason to dwell in the past. Minnesota boasted the best offense in the league in 2019, but offensive production was much harder to come by in the truncated season. Most of the first half was spent around average performance trading good for bad and never straying all that far from average. A bit more volatility in the second half led to strong peaks, but also deep troughs including the fizzle out seen against Houston when the offense mustered very little in their latests postseason sweep. Strikeout rates often ran higher than average throughout the season ticking up to 30% more often than down to below 20%, and while walk rate was pretty strong in the first half there was a noticeable dip in the second when they ran at below average rates much more often.
Batter Seasonal Line
Once again it was Nelson Cruz leading the charge in the box as he immolated lefties, while still coming in above average against righties. Both sides felt the fury as actual production on contact came in a good deal above elite expectations. The walk rate ticked up a bit against same-handers, but still came in around average against both. While strikeouts were no issue with the platoon advantage he did get sat down nearly a third of the time against righties, possibly giving a reason for why the team has been dragging their heels to re-sign one of the best hitters in the game. While the platoon split wasn’t quite as wide as Cruz, being virtually unplayable against lefties made Max Kepler much more of a specialist than the team had hoped. When holding the platoon advantage he pretty well pairing slightly above average production on contact with strong walk rates that nearly eclipsed the strikeouts, but against lefties he punched out far more often. When he did make contact it was often weak expectations, which translated even worse to actual results. Focusing too much on the negative would take away from what he did do well on his way to above average production that climbed to around a win above replacement at the plate.
Another flawed player whose massive flaw held him back from truly great production was Miguel Sano who was average or better against both hands, but not wildly so due to a strikeout rate over 40%. Add average and worse walk rates against righties and lefties, respectively, and you are easily left with the impression that his production will go as his contact goes. Expected output on balls in play came in well, well above average against both hands, and though his complete lack of speed should make underperformance a realistic cost he still managed to outhit them against righties. For once, he was able to stay on the field, a saving grace that helped his average production close to nearly a win above replacement at the dish. While the shape of production pushes to the extreme in one direction, the next batter, Luis Arraez goes to the other end of the spectrum. He hardly ever strikes out, and while the production on contact was a good deal lower than Sano it still came in above average against righties with a strong walk rate helping to lift up more slappiness against lefties. Some nagging knee soreness cut into his workload this year, but the diminutive second sacker was one of the best hitters on the team even if you might take some other guys first if you were picking teams.
The last two players were homegrown international signs, but the team has also dipped into domestic free agency in recent years with Josh Donaldson representing a new commitment and Marwin Gonzalez one that is just ending. In his first year Donaldson continued the good and bad of strong production, but suppressed workload due to injury. Average strikeout rates came with well better walk rates and he managed to throw in above average expected production on contact. Shortfalls against lefties in actual production was mostly cancelled out by better than deserved against righties. If he had doubled his plate appearances without slippage in production he would have been the team’s second best hitter, but sadly this looks like the norm from now on. For Gonzalez it was the opposite with more of a full workload from the defensively flexible switch hitter, but with production that fell just shy of average. He mostly struggled with lefties, but hit righties about as well as Donaldson. Actual production on contact fell well short of his below average expectations, though average walks and a bit better strikeouts did help things play up a bit. A three-year decline in expected that has continually come with worse actual results might make his market colder than he would probably like in an offseason that already looks like a buyer’s market.
A couple of outfielders continue the trend of diversified skillsets that play off each other well showing a team keen on raising the floor knowing how hard it is to find great players who can do it all. Byron Buxton has long tantalized with his loud tools, but routinely misses a bunch of time with the performance on field showing high volatility. That pretty much continued with foot and shoulder issues hampering him and a concussion ending his season in the final days. Massive discipline issues led to a nonexistent walk rate and well worse than average strikeout rates, but focusing on the negative takes our gaze away from the hellacious contact he made the other 70% of the time. It added up to a weirdly-shaped, average production season. Typically foiling nicely, Eddie Rosario, continued everyday play as he led the club in plate appearances, but he saw a massive drop in production. He was terrible against same-handed lefties matching Buxton with the anemic walk rate, but showing well below average production on contact mitigating any advantage of the halved strikeout rate. He did get to average against righties with the walks coming up closer to average and contact efficacy straddling average depending on perspective as expected was a bit lower and actual a bit better. Like Gonzalez, he goes to free agency coming off a season where he played a lot, but didn’t produce all that well, though unlike Gonzalez he has the stink of a non-tender on him rather than the completion of a contract.
The sixth player with more than 200 plate appearances was shortstop Jorge Polanco who hit at replacement level due to struggles with righties that watered down his average performance against lefties. His discipline metrics were a clone of Rosario, not a compliment, while the switch hitter showed a definite preference for lefties where his production on contact played far higher than against the more common righties. Traditionally a shaky defender at shortstop there is a real chance he sees more of a platoon role going forward if the team can find someone to hit righties, while showing little slippage with the glove. The last player to see meaningful time was Jake Cave who struck out over a third of the time with a walk rate that approached the average and below average expected production on contact that played wildly better. He was tied for worst hitter on the team with the catcher coming off a sensational breakout season, Mitch Garver. This past would not be as kind as he struck out nearly HALF of his plate appearances, which the average walk rate could never come close to offsetting. While expected production on contact was thirty points above average his actual results came in a bit below. An intercostal injury cut into his playing time and likely suppressed his output leaving him as a much brighter light than Cave going forward.
Team Batter Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
The team got off to a slow start as exit velocity presented at worst of season levels, and while things improved from there we mostly see a few bubbles of strong hard hit rates that sit between prolonged stretches of worse than average, perhaps telling us that they got to face some truly bad pitching over a few different series’. As a team they seemed to do well in getting the ball off the ground as trajectories rarely dipped below the average. Translating batted ball characteristics to expected production on contact we see a second half where things seemed to take off, which might be indicative of an injury-ravaged team coming together at the right time. So much of this looks like a byproduct of the weird ramp up and start to season as the team looked unprepared in the early going, which might have also led to some injuries as players and team personnel were given such little guidance about how best to get ready for the strangest season of our lives. Minnesota will have a few familiar faces to replace including their best hitter, and in a market where there does not seem to be much help if you aren’t willing to pay for the premium players. Help is on the way, but near-term seems centered more on mashing corner players with few being even adequate at shortstop, and longer term holds a ton of promise with Royce Lewis, but at some point the tools need to start translating.
Team Pitcher Production & Discipline
While the bats dropped from first to middle of the pack the pitching continued year over year improvement sneaking into the top-five with no small thanks owed to the acquisition of Kenta Maeda. Further plaudits are owed to pitching coach Wes Johnson and his staff and the behind the scenes work from Josh Kalk. This entire group does well to get the most out of their guys while doing what they can to shield weaknesses. We see below that the team was left with essentially two traditional starters in the aforementioned Maeda and the now-veteran Jose Berrios due to injuries felling Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill, and a suspension for Michael Pineda. The team responded by mixing and matching a wide array of above replacement performers mostly thriving in shorter stints. The performance showed up mostly average or better with a fairly prolonged stretch in the middle pushing a little worse, but ample examples of stronger runs in the other direction. The second half, especially, looks rife with good runs including a nice pulse where strikeouts maintained right around 30%. That elite level was met several other times with troughs usually pushing to just below average, and while those trips were typically brief, the team did see more of that average level during their brief playoff run. Walks were usually around the average with a couple of extended solid runs and a higher frequency at lower amplitude going in the other direction.
Pitcher Seasonal Line
His first year with the Twins couldn’t have really gone better for Kenta Maeda. He was second on the team in batters faced running an absurd strikeout to walk rate that widened even further against righties. Near average expected production on contact came in a good deal better against lefties, while righties were suppressed even better. He finished up a bit behind the very best starters in the game, and deserves to be in that conversation going forward. Playing Robin to Maeda’s Dark Knight was Jose Berrios who carried a heavy workload, but at more of an above average than dominant rate. The walks got a bit out of hand against lefties otherwise strikeouts and contact production were essentially unchanged across handedness. Those free passses were enough to push him down to average, while coming in a good deal above against the righties.
Serving in a critical role that saw work as both an opener and 4+ out mid-game bridge reliever, the right-handed Matt Wisler was quietly a force to be reckoned with excelling against both hands. He was a bit stronger against lefties due to complete nullification on contact, more than made up for his pretty terrible walk rate. He struck out both sides at better than average rates, but that pushed much higher against righties where he also saw his walk rate come much closer to average. The San Francisco Giants signed him for a pittance early in the signing period leaving a rather large hole that will need to be filled. Operating as a twice through guy who occasionally saw a few more than that, Randy Dobnak was able to combine fairly heavy volume with above average performance. His very wide split hints at a need to be careful against lefties, and strikeouts are not a part of his game against either hand. He managed to avoid the walk at a better than average clip, while doing a very good job of suppressing expected production on contact against righties that played closer to average against lefties. Unlike Wisler he should be back to fill a plentiful role even if not as a traditional starter.
The trio of Tyler, Tyler & Trevor sounds like a bro’d up law firm, but Clippard, Duffey and May, respectively, got a ton of big outs in a relief role. Clippard showed a massively wide reverse split due to his ability to draw soft contact against lefties, which turned much more sour against righties, while running strong strikeout to walk rates. Duffey showed a similar preference for lefties, but with a much smaller gap owed to his better ability against righties. He struck out nearly a third of batters driven by an absurd rate against lefties. Contact against both hands look worse by expectations so it will be imperative to keep the strikeout rate skyward if or when the balls in play start falling in more often and/or for more damage. The best strikeout arm of the bunch, however, goes to May who sat down both hands at better than 35% rates, and while walks against lefties ticked up there was no similar issue with righties. He gave up harder than average contact against both hands that played a bit worse in reality. Recently signing with the New York Mets should give him a whole crop of batters who have not seen him often, which may help him get off to a good start with his new club.
Serving out a shortened suspension due to a second PED violation caused Michael Pineda to get a late start to the season. An average strikeout rate came with better than mean walks, which has often been the case, but unlike in the past he also did a wonderful job of suppressing hard contact leading to well above average performance that favored righties, while holding his own with lefties. His ability to build out the workload after so much missed time for injury and stupidity should be in question, but performance arrows are pointing up. Another group of relievers who showed above average performance, but got there in different ways were Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Taylor Rogers and Sergio Romo. Thielbar’s strikeout rate was a bit better than average, but it played up due to his ability to draw weak contact leading to good results against both hands. Much wider splits were the case for Alcala who ran a nice strikeout rate of lefties, but a high walk rate came with very hard contact. Both of which ran much better against lefties even if the strikeout rate came down to near average levels. The splits for Taylor Rogers were tilted in the other direction as strong strikeout to walk ratios came with average expected production on contact that played much, much harder in reality. Surprisingly, it was a bit of a reverse split for Romo who ran similar discipline rates regardless of batter hand, but drew much weaker contact from the lefties who should be salivating at his variety of sliders.
The only other pitcher to see decent run was Rich Hill who spent time on the injured list for the fifth year in a row. His performance rated below average, but above replacement with strikeouts, walks and production on contact each coming in a bit worse than average, but not egregiously so. Actual production on contact came in much, much better than both expected and average leaving his boxscore looking much cleaner than he may have deserved. Several others didn’t show a whole lot in mostly small samples showing the team seems adept at pulling the chute when the ground is getting too large, too fast for some of the guys they had hoped could contribute. One standout here is the poor performance from Jake Odorizzi, but a rash of not all that serious on their own injuries never allowed him to get his feet under him, and may serve to actively limit his market as a middle of rotation free agent option.
Team Pitcher Batted Ball Profile & Production on Contact
In the first half the club seemed to do a bit better to suppress exit velocity typically running well better than average with occasional ticks upward toward average. The second half showed those pulses at a similar frequency, but often pushing all the way up to average, and while troughs were every bit as deep as earlier the time between they didn’t have quite the staying power with more contact coming at the higher velocity bands. The periods where exit velocity pushed higher coincided with worse than average production on contact levels. A bit of a surprise, production yielded was a good deal better in the second half, whereas in the first they often floated around average or worse following a sensational start to the season. Last years Twins team featured a staff that maximized output even if it required some guys going a bit more than they would like at the expense others going a bit less. With several contributors in need of being replaced it is an area the team will need to commit resources toward in order to stay amongst the best teams in the game.
Player Analysis in order of 2 Early Mock ADP
It is important to remember throughout, but especially for well established players, that the most plate appearances anybody received this year was 327 including the postseason (378 for a pitcher). Meaning 2020 production is only a narrow slice of what is being shown for entrenched players with a long history. For players where 2020 makes up a larger part of their resumé the more recent data is going to take up more of the space. Considering what every player had to go through this year I do not think it makes sense to over-weight what we saw throughout this season so hopefully incorporating more track record will be more informative than simply showing what occurred this year. Also, the vertical axes will remain locked to make side-by-side comparisons much easier, but throughout this series please pay attention to that x-axis as it will change from player to player.
Kenta Maeda (51)
It was always difficult to stand idly by as one of the most well-endowed franchises in the history of sports would jerk Kenta Maeda around every year in order to save a few million dollars. The kind of stuff small market teams get pilloried for, but surprisingly little outrage when it’s a league darling playing their own game between the letter of the law. To see him take what had been good performance to another level in the shortened season was a real treat. His time in Los Angeles saw a prolonged stretch where actual results came in worst than the average or better true wOBA indicated by the component data. Things fell in line at an even better deserved or expected level this season, and a lot of that was driven by a strikeout rate that only briefly dipped below 30% after a career where he had flashed that kind of capability, but more often as a brief peak that turned back down in short order. Improvement on a walk rate that often bubbled up to average while typically living a bit lower was very beneficial leading to the best strikeout to walk gaps on the 2:1 scale than he has seen at any other point in his career. This wasn’t just a guy pounding the zone and living with hard contact as he suppressed exit velocity well, and while not exactly a worm-burner he has typically seen his expected production on contact live in better than average territory that drilled down to even better bands this year. The rash of worse than expected actual results is as obvious as it was recent, which might be something that comes back around once he gets around the league a few times, but that concern seems a bit unwarranted until we see it materialize.
Nelson Cruz (64)
It has been a long career of outstanding performance for Nelson Cruz, and while this timeframe only consists of data since 2015 we get the gist. His production has occasionally sank as far as average, but typically comes in above with plenty of outbursts where he looks like the best hitter in the game. This past season showed some cratering at the very end, but was otherwise at or above what he has established as his level. During that late fade the strikeouts ticked up, but for a hitter with this much power it is relatively rare to see strikeouts sustaining at average levels. Those have ticked up toward and even above 30% a few different times, but he has also spent long stretches at better than average placement, and he does so while still walking at an average or better clip. Where Cruz really shines, however, is in his ability to mash cowhide. His exit velocity routinely sets the pace for the rest of the league, though there might be a bit of concern for this past season where he sustained at levels that had previously represented the nadir of a brief trough. It hardly mattered when translating to production on contact where we see him sitting within or even above his typical bands well above the average. Until we stop seeing incredible performance the bet should be on him continuing to be a great hitter, though with every ring added to the tree we do get closer the inevitable cliff from which no man has returned.
Jose Berrios (93)
Typically showing average or better performance over what is now a very large sample for Jose Berrios, perhaps the most exciting part is that he has continued to increase his workload without showing much slippage. The shortened season obscures this a bit, but coming into 2020 he had ramped up his batters faced each year of career and this past was another where he made every start asked. While his batters faced per game took a step back this past year it isn’t quite an apples to apples comparison given the extended in-season ramp up for many pitchers who were asked to do what they normally do in half the time as usual. The past season-plus has seen the pitcher establish a strikeout rate that sits around the average and often pushes higher. He had reached similar heights in the past, but usually with some choppiness that led to plenty of other runs pushing to worse than average territory. The walk rate has seen prolonged runs on both sides of average, even showing a long leash in both directions, but more recently we have seen less volatility as more of a true straddle around average. He saw his production on contact tick up this year after usually running average or better as 2020 presented on. the wrong side of the divide. with a couple of nerve-racking spikes that correlated strongly with his less good recent activity. The slow, sustained building out of workload is a nice sight to see, especially as we enter a year where so much is unknown about how teams are going to get all the outs, leaving Berrios as more of a high floor, mid-rotation arm who seems priced accordingly.
Eddie Rosario (95)
Sneaking into the top-100 of the 2 Early Mock drafts was Eddie Rosario who would go on to be non-tendered a few weeks after the mocks concluded. Without knowing where he lands it is easy to see him sliding back in drafts, but their and your decision should be based on comparing his recent solidly average performance with the loud outbursts that perhaps folks are remembering a bit too fondly. The overperformance in actual results displayed during that run made him look like a star, and while his career has been synonymous with those kind of outsize results, more recent data shows what it looks like when both that gap narrows and expected falls back to earlier more pedestrian levels. Make no mistake that he has done well to take his strikeout rate down to near elite levels, but he has seen on such improvement in a walk rate that still lags well behind his peers. That ultra-aggressive approach does lead to more balls in play, which are almost always more productive than a strikeout, but the past 800 balls in play tell a tale of a guy no longer getting quite as much of a pitch as he used to. Expectations have mostly come below average with occasional spikes above, and all that was fine as long as he was outhitting those estimates. That hasn’t been the case nearly as much, of late, and when you are solely dependent on the bounce of the ball there isn’t much left when it doesn’t fall in or get through. There are great fits where he could end up as a near everyday player in a great park, but those combinations dwindle when factor other variables like necessity and TWTW making this a narrow needle to thread. Ending up in a place like Coors does not seem highly probable, but there is certainly a good fit, and his skillset would seem to be maxed out in a park that does so much to help those who put the ball in play with frequency.
Byron Buxton (122)
Seemingly missing tons of time every year from the kind of injuries that can happen to dynamic center fielders playing all out, this past year was little different for Byron Buxton. The glove is tough to replace when on the shelf, but previously his work at the dish was coming at a soft enough level that there were hopes of replacing the bat well enough to offset the drop in defense. More recently, that offensive production has come in much closer to average on the expectations side, and while we haven’t seen the kind of massive outbursts in actual results that he had shown in the past there was a slow and steady gap that you would like to think a speedy, powerful player would be likely to sustain. Helping raise that floor has been his strong work in taking a strikeout rate from cover-your-eyes bad to damn-near average. The walk rate has mostly bounced between average and lousy, but we can glean that the most recent run has seen a turn toward a more aggressive approach as the walk rate has gone to virtually zero. That leaves massive gaps in his strikeout to walk, discipline stats, on the 2:1 scale somewhat dampening the impact of the strikeout improvements, but given his tools putting the ball in play should typically be a good thing. Exit velocity has chased average for some time with brief flirtations leading to cold shoulders, but more recently we have seen him round first on his way to sustaining at above average levels. Additionally, he has shown an ability to get the ball off the ground, which paired with his very good speed that can turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, and his newfound ability to drive the ball harder more often has led to sustained average expectations for production on contact that seems to sustainably play higher in the above average to good range. He needs that to be the case given his discipline weakness, and health will always be the knock, but it is also the flag that keeps his price affordable. There is a good chance that a season will come along where Buxton maintains health to go with his unlocking of his tools to be one of the very best players for both fantasy and real life. Everyone knows this won’t be that year, but what this analysis presupposes is, what if it is?
Josh Donaldson (153)
If you’re willing to roll the dice on Buxton being both healthy and good then you are probably really keen to bet on Josh Donaldson considering weALREADYknow how very good he can be. This past season saw more of what we seen of late where good production came in shorter stints with 2019 being the outlier since 2016, the last time he combined both good performance with a ton of volume. That 2019 season stands out when looking at performance as he showed a bit of fade, but mostly sustained strong levels of production at places that had typically represented peaks in the past. The more recent drop falls more in line with those past years where his worst stretches come in a bit below average, but much of the time is spent in better places. The walk rate has been a huge part of his game for some time now as he has shown the ability to stay above 15% with plenty of vibrations up to 20%. Those strong rates persist even as strikeouts have stuck around average or better levels outside of the occasional rough patch. Exit velocity continues to present as a strong part of his game, and he does well to keep that from being straight into the ground. The trend in that direction, though, sheds light on why his production on contact sank to below average, which has happened before, but usually as a blip between two stronger runs. Given that he will likely miss time again, but should be a solid producer while out there, it makes sense to like Donaldson more in leagues with bigger rosters or fewer teams where your replacement level is a bit stronger. Full season with tight rosters and waivers make it more difficult to take him with this 10th round average draft pick at a position that is absolutely loaded.
Max Kepler (161)
A fairly wide platoon split this past season stood well out of character for Max Kepler who had shown the ability to be an above average hitter against both hands over the prior years. The team will be unlikely to panic themselves into seeing him as a platoon player, but they might start gathering kindling just in case they have to start a second fire to help the first appear brighter from a distance. It wasn’t that long ago that Kepler was showing very good actual results that spiked to elite territory from time to time, but coming with corresponding dips below average. The more recent data, though, shows us what it looks like when he doesn’t see the overperformance above solid expectations when the former gap winnows and the latter level falls back to the pack. He has been here before leaving the uninterrupted strong period looking like the sore thumb, but looking under the hood we see some things to like. He builds his house on a strong discipline foundation where above average walk rates outstrip the deleterious effects of his better than average strikeout rate that shows up as plenty of positive light on the 2:1 scale. Exit velocity has mostly been around average with breaches above being less frequent until more recently during his best run, but also falling off to career worst levels in this past season. That brought his production on contact back down from the strong run, but not out of line with previously established levels just south of average. He has consistently shown the ability to outstrip his expectations, but it isn’t always the case, and when he isn’t able to stretch expectations there is a whole lot less to like. The linear rise in launch angle is nice to see, but much like Buxton above, one wonders if he is crossing the threshold of diminishing returns, especially as exit velocity sees more and more of that upward contact manifesting as easy to catch fly balls and pop ups.
Miguel Sano (170)
It has been over a decade since Miguel Sano burst into our collective consciousness after the Twins were the winner of an intense bidding war for the then 16-year olds services. Pushing to the present we find that since then he has amassed only 2,300 or so plate appearances, while a litany of off the field issues, injuries and lack of contact have been a much bigger story than the prodigious blasts he launches with a good deal of frequency. Performance has shown little ability to sit in one place for two long with a pretty poor stretch not all that long ago standing out prominently, but appearing less dangerous upon seeing the return to better places that has followed. This season saw little reason to deviate with a near career-best peak that came alongside a massive cliff face to end the campaign. Strikeouts have persistently been a massive issue with the best of times still coming in the untenable 30% range and often pushing above 40%, which is where he claimed residence most recently. He will throw in some walks, something he got away from in the middle of his career, but appears to be coming back into focus. There were dips below average in the past season, but also a return to the kind of elite walk rate displayed when he first debuted. The exit velocity lull that persisted around the average coincides completely with his worst sustained run, and also stands out starkly from the rest of his career including most recently when he has pushed toward elite levels. His ability to elevate the ball throughout most of his career helps that high hard hit rate play up even further, which has led to above average production on contact even during the worst of times. That most recent run shows all that he is capable of when fully selling out for the power at the expense of the whiff. It would not be wise to expect any sort of massive improvement in his biggest flaw, but even leading the league in strikeouts has not stopped him from being an above average producer, and a relatively cheaper source of what should be high homer totals.
Taylor Rogers (194)
Good performance in 2019 led to a promotion of role for Taylor Rogers that saw him pitching aplenty in high leverage later innings including the ninth. There was some overperformance at his best, but expectations saw massive improvement over the earlier parts of his career, and the more recent data shows us that not all of it was able to stick around. He saw fortune turn against him with worse actual results than expected, though by the end of the year even the regressed version of reality had come back up closer to pre-2019 levels. You cannot find much fault in the discipline as very strong strikeout rates persisted until a bit of a fade to close the season, and throughout his career the walk has not been much of an issues leading to massive white space between the curves on the 2:1 scale. He has even managed to limit exit velocity throughout his career, though not at the kind of absurd levels we can often find from the very best relievers. On the plus side he keeps the ball down fairly well with expected production on contact looking average or better for the last couple hundred balls in play. We have seen plenty of separation between perspectives throughout his career with the most recent run showing far worse results than he deserved when batters did keep it between the chalk. A return to a more normal 2021 should hopefully lead to results more in line with the better expectations.
Jorge Polanco (234)
The last 600 or so plate appearances for Jorge Polanco have seen a return to more average or worse levels shown prior to an extended run of much better performance that was likely driven by scientific advancements for which he was eventually caught and suspended. The bar is lower given his ability to play shortstop, but makes the margins much smaller. It’s an aggressive approach for the switch hitter as he avoids. the strikeout well, and manages to throw in an average walk rate for more than a blip that ranges down less savory levels a good deal of the time. The strong stretch occurred at the same time as his best exit velocity, but that brief blip looks well out of place in the vast sea of below average hard hit rates on both sides of the mountain. Even at the more pedestrian exit velocity he approaches average production on contact, and with a decent enough discipline profile should be seen as a high floor hitter, albeit, one who isn’t likely to run high homer nor stolen base totals even with most days play.
Mitch Garver (249)
Prior to his absolute cratering this past season, Mitch Garver had shown a lot to really like considering his position behind the plate. The solid run of performance in 2019 looked rife with overperformance, but expectations lent credibility that he profiled as an above average hitter. That wasn’t the case this past season as struggles to keep the whiff at an acceptable rate spiraled out of control pushing north. of 40% at their worst. The walk rate has typically been above average and even strong enough to offset some of the less pleasant strikeout rates, but were not able to keep pace during the astronomical acceleration of the punch out. He did not see such wild changes in his batted ball characteristics with exit velocity maintaining at better than average levels, and little change in above average production on contact rates. Gone was the overperformance that had made his balls in play look even better, but coalescing at the expected level still allowed him to contribute when he was able to make contact. Donning the tools of ignorance makes a bat like this look so much better, but the injury and affliction racked up behind the dish may have impacted his ability to make contact last year, and if that corrects there should be some decent bounce back potential here albeit with enough risk that you’ll want to double dip here if a better option hasn’t already been secured.
Michael Pineda (291)
Representing another player who has seen a suspension for use of a banned substance, multiple in his case, Michael Pineda has seen fairly solid performance throughout his career around the myriad of injuries that have also interrupted his flow. His latest stretch consisting of the last 400 or so plate appearances has been rather good, and it has come with compounding growth in the strikeout rate that saw him crest 30% at his best this past season. He had been there before, but in between there was some malaise at below average rates for a solid stretch. The walk rate has long been a strength with occasional hiccups massaging themselves out in short order. This aggressive pounding of the zone has benefits in limiting the free pass, but does have the downside of harder than average production that has often plagued him throughout his career. A few times that has burbled up into truly frightful areas, but more often he’s running around average and leaning worse. A nod toward higher launch angles of late seem to have suppressed some of that danger even as exit velocity has persisted around the average. The upcoming season will mark his first without significant injury or suspension or destination issues lingering over his head, and while there should be workload concerns there should also be considerable faith in management to get the best out of him while maintaining health.
Trevor May (370)
When traditional starterdom didn’t quite work out for Trevor May the move to the bullpen became a natural place to recoup value. The team was rewarded with strong performance nearly across the board upon conversion, though Tommy John surgery brought a pregnant pause to the conversation. The really strong trough stands out a bit, but he has shown the ability to be a better than average pitcher in his smaller role, and the strikeout is a big reason for his success. His punchout rate has mostly stayed north of 30% over his last 600 or so batters faced with a ratchet upward toward 40% for more than a blip. The walks have approached average for stretches, but the most recent run shows a well better than average rate that helped create the biggest strikeout to walk gap on the 2:1 scale of his career. That came at the cost of exit velocity which ticked up to worse than average levels, while seeing a spike in launch angle that that pushed production on contact estimates higher than where he had recently been, but still better than the earlier parts of his career before the breakout. Signing with the New York Mets will mean a high likelihood of more leveraged work, but does make it unlikely that he will be able to pilfer saves on a team crowded with other dynamic arms.
Jake Odorizzi (375)
After accepting the qualifying offer coming into the season, Jake Odorizzi ensured a pretty strong salary, but only for one season. That eventually got prorated down in the weird season, and a series of weirder injuries left him contributing very little on the season. The longer track record shows a pitcher who has often pitched quite well, but can also be prone to poorer stretches that hold him back from being a hotter commodity. Throw in that volume has often been in short supply due to missed time for injury, and more recently a quicker hook due to inordinately large time through the order penalties. More optimal usage has led to a spike in strikeout rate that closed with 40% at peak, while ranging down to average or a bit lower levels. He battled a rash of higher walk rates that stands out from earlier and also the more recent stuff when rates typically ranged from average to much better. Success suppressing production on contact has occurred at times when his heavy flyball ways came with softer exit velocity and when those hard hit rates have ticked up things have looked worse. When the discipline profile is running better he can get away with a bit of hard contact, but the margins shrink as one or the other worsens. The very most recent data shows a fairly large adjustment to launch angles that had, perhaps, pushed too high, too often. The newer version at lower angles continued to straddle average on exit velocity with expected production on contact coming in better than average in the face of generally worse actual results.
Tyler Duffey (401)
We can see earlier on in his career some of the things that held Tyler Duffey back from being a traditional starter. A good deal of his terrible performance was undeserved, but even at expected levels he was still a worse than average pitcher. Instead of pounding a square peg into a round hole the Twins converted Duffey to a bullpen role where it took a couple of seasons to find his footing. The past two have been incredible with one building on the other leading to a phenomenal 2020 season. Taking strikeouts from average or worse to north of 30, and even 40%, would make a lot of guys look better, and he was able to do so while seeing a manageable increase to his walk rate that now approaches average. Production on contact had long been an issue due to worse than average exit velocity. The very most recent data shows a spike in that exit velocity, but still, production on contact hung around the average. Given the poor performance not all that long ago there should be concern that Duffey is more of a pop up guy who rode a strong strikeout rate that coincided with some of the best contact he has allowed. Without a clear path to saves interest should be muted, but if he keeps looking like this he might fall into a few.
Luis Arraez (413)
A bothersome knee hampered Luis Arraez for much of this past season, but when he’s going right it’s hard to find a better pure contact hitter in the game than Luis Arraez. Expected performance has mostly come in at an average or better clip with actual performance mostly playing higher, something that might be sustainable given his ability to move the ball around. This past season shows what happens when he can’t play at his best with actual results falling off improving expectations, but both sides felt better about the end once he had gotten a bit of rest. Arraez almost never strikes out while running a walk rate that approaches the average leaving him the rare player with both a positive discipline profile, and also tons and tons of balls in play. The latest version saw exit velocity push higher, but still coming in a couple of ticks below average at his best. Production on contact may cap out at average, but there should be some better stretches that push a little higher. This is a high floor, low ceiling type of player, but one who might play a lot, with health, and who can help in categories that are often hard to find this late in a draft.
Randy Dobnak (442)
In a similar vein, Randy Dobnak is not going to win you a title all on his own, but he might represent useful depth that you can pick up for free and hopefully both he and the role can find themselves. His expected performance has shown little change straddling average for his brief career. Actual results, however, never seem to want to sit pretty as first they ran well better and then a bit worse than expected. His profile is focused solely on suppressing hard contact as he cannot rely on the strikeout to get him out of jams, and when things are going right he’s also avoiding the walk that can make those jams more frequent. To that end, he has limited exit velocity very well since getting hit around a bit upon debut. Furthermore, the launch trajectories come on a line approaching zero degrees so he does a great job of keeping the ball down. That ability showed up much better earlier, but actual results have slowly risen to average even as expectations have shown a bit of further improvement. The low strikeout rates, once or twice through role, and dependence on soft contact will do very little for your fantasy team making him a more useful guy in real life as he can help a staff stay on it’s feet.
Marwin Gonzalez (450)
When it came out that Marwin Gonzalez was one of the very most egregious offenders in one of the many cheating schemes the Houston Astros have concocted over the year it probably shouldn’t have been much of a surprise. That massive bubble where actual production exceeded expected coincides perfectly with the 2017 season, and while being told every single pitch before it’s arrival didn’t help his expected production it sure did a lot to lift his actual results to much better places. Then he parlayed that success into a two year, $20M deal with the Twins that hasn’t hampered the team, but they also haven’t seen the kind of return on investment that they had hoped. He has shown flashes of being an above average hitter since then, but the most recent showed pretty poorly. He strikes out around the average, occasionally more, occasionally less, and much of the same can be said about his walk rate. Exit velocity surges have pulsed with aplomb of late, which stands out from the rest of his career when hard hit rates typically stayed tucked under the average. Those bursts have helped push production on contact up to strong places, but it’s hard to get excited about a profile like this.
Rich Hill (478)
It was shoulder fatigue that caused Rich Hill to miss time this year, and if it wasn’t that it would have been something else. Here is a pitcher who seems to get nicked up as often as everyone else, but when it happens he hits the shelf quickly. Years of blister problems are likely related to whatever he is spraying on his hand to get the ball to move like it does, but he always manages to squeeze out just enough performance to get that next deal. That performance is often quite good as he only rarely been worse than average since 2015, and in that time he can typically maintain above average walk rates that have come alongside average or better walk rates that did spike a bit this year. Suppressing exit velocity has been a strength for much of this timeframe, and he has settled more of a flyball approach earlier in his career down a few notches more recently. Production on contact has often been better than average with only a couple of spikes showing the other side of the coin. There is much more utility in real baseball than in fantasy where it can be hard to carry the dead roster spot making him a much better pickup off waivers if and when he is cleared for launch.
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