If you have been reading or listening to my content, you have likely heard me reference fScores (named fScores for “fantasy scores”) or use them to compare players. This is a custom fantasy stat I created that aggregates other stats into core skills, weighted against the average player where 100 is average, similar to wRC+ or OPS+. Drafting based on core skills, rather than attempting a “one size fits all” ranking allows for more customization in team build and team design to target the weak points of your team and allow for more balance.
Most sets of player rankings are built toward a traditional roto 5×5 setting and most people play in H2H categories or points leagues with custom settings. Additionally, drafting based on projections is a faulty strategy, rather it makes more sense to draft based on underlying skills and factors that may enhance or hold back those skills. Projections are often too high, too low or too safe. Drafting based on proven skills for what you need is the way to go.
HITTING
There are six main skills that go into an effective fantasy baseball hitter.
- fContact
- fPlate Discipline
- fPower
- fSpeed
- fDurability
- fEF (external factors)
Please read the article “What the f*** is an fScore” for a betting understanding before going through the below rankings.
Other Positions: Catcher fScores, 1B fScores, 2B fScores, SS fScores, 3B fScores, OF fScores, SP fScores, RP fScores
Ranking Notes:
TIER 1 (Freeman, Harper and Olson)
Freeman is one of the best all around hitters in baseball, has been for years and with a couple more great years will lock himself into being a Hall of Famer. His fScores are predicting the start of a career downturn this year at 34-years-old, but he will still be good enough to be the best first baseman in baseball
Talking about future Hall of Famers, when Harper is healthy, he’s one of the best hitters in baseball and has a higher ceiling than Freeman, but he has a bit more volatility in his profile with a worse hit tool and the injury issues he’s still returning from.
Olson actually lines up for higher fScores than Harper, but much of that is related to Harper being hurt last year and I think Harper has the higher end potential and also the better profile per PA than Olson.
TIER 2 (Alonso and Jones)
A year ago I was slightly on the Alonso over Olson bandwagon, however the superior lineup and ballpark has helped to propel Olson over Alonso the last season or so. If all was fair between these factors, I would still lean Alonso because I trust a righty power bat as more consistent than lefty in most cases.
Jones is the newbie to this upper tier and people probably think I’m crazy for having him ranked over guys like Vladdy and Goldy, but Jones even with BABIP and AVG regression still profiles as a 30/20 guy in the safety of Coors and I’ll take that over 30 homers and 10 steals or 40 homers and 0 steals like some of the guys in the next tier.
TIER 3 (Guerrero, Goldschmidt, Walker and Bellinger)
Vlad looks like a .260-.270 hitter with a solid OBP and 30 homer power, honestly Goldy rates out better, but they’re on opposite sides of the aging curve, even though Vlad was down trending a bit.
As noted, Goldy rates out a little better as a .270-.280 hitter with a better OBP and 30 homer power, plus 5-10 steal speed.
Walker is kind of between the two as he has the Goldy-ish speed, but a hit tool similar to Vlad’s. Walker is a little older than you might think and despite coming off his best season, he is only a year younger than Freeman, so there’s a good chance last year might have been his peak.
Belli is still unsigned at the time of this writing, however it seems he is probably headed back to the Cubs. I doubt the power returns to his MVP season levels, but the fScores do project a .265-.275 hitter who should hit 20-25 homers with 15 steals or so, which is pretty solid.
TIER 4 (Casas – Pasquantino)
Casas is a slow dude, which may someday lead to him having Muncy-esk batting averages as a lefty, but while he’s young he should put up batting averages in the Vlady range and profiles for even more power based on better flyball numbers.
Tork had such a hot second half that his future fScore is a shooting star. It’s happening, we finally are seeing the guy who was a prolific college hitter making it happen in the bigs, battling the worst hitters park in the majors. The stadiums has to hurt any fantasy hitters calling it home.
Arraez is a freak of nature when it comes to contact and plate skills (in a good way) and is a one of a kind in the fantasy game, almost like Esteury Ruiz with steals. He can help you maintain the ever important batting average category in roto leagues, but you will have to remember to counter the near 0s in power and speed pretty heavily if you add him to the lineup.
Nate Lowe is pretty underrated, he profiles as a .280 hitter who can hit 20-25 bombs in a killer lineup.
Steer might get the edge in some leagues, only for the position eligibility. He’s basically average across the board, but hits third in GASP.
If Hoskins shows he’s healthy this spring, I might move him ahead of Torkelson, just behind Casas now that he signed with the Brewers. That was a slick move for both parties. Hoskins should hit .250-.260 with 35 bombs.
Vinnie P has more power in the bat than he’s shown to date and profiles similarly to a younger Nate Lowe with better plate skills, but a worse lineup around him.
TIER 5 (Santander – Turner)
Santander has a profile for a .240-.250 batting average and 25 homers, he’s basically what a replacement level fantasy 1B should be in standard leagues.
Yandy is great for points leagues, but in standard roto you’re looking at a .280-ish hitter with 20 homers.
Paredes is a strange one, the metrics won’t match the production because he’s a pull king. Paredes alone made me consider adding pull rate to fPower, but insane pull isn’t always a great thing for power. Paredes though I think just took notes from Nolan Arenado. My fScores show us a guy who should go .240 with 20-25 homers.
Donovan is a different guy in this tier and the small sample size of power (half a season in 2023) never grew enough to counter the non-power prior to 2023. Donovan should hit close to .300 with 15-20 homers and 5-10 steals, which is more power/speed than you will get from Arraez.
Naylor seems like he should have more power than he does, because he’s a big boy, but he profiles more as a .280 hitter with 20 homers and around 10 steals.
Bohm profiles as a worse version of Josh Naylor, though he is getting better. Think .270, just under 20 homers and 5 steals.
All Belt needs is a home, health and some regular playing time. A healthy Belt should hit .260 with 30 bombs, but he can never stay healthy and looks like a strong-side platoon bat in most cases.
Josh Bell has never really turned into the player once hoped when he was a young prospect, but he looked much better in Miami last year than in Cleveland and could turn a .250 batting average and 25 homers.
Turner is a better version of Bohm, but is also older and without a team, so there is a little more risk for regression while Bohm sees progression.
TIER 6 (Black – Flores)
I love the potential of Tyler Black this season, especially if he breaks camp. The hit tool isn’t the best, but we could see a .250 batting average, with great plate skills, 10-15 homers and 25-30 steals.
Mountcastle should post .270 with 25 homers, so why isn’t he in tier 6? The plate skills are much worse, so in points leagues or OBP leagues, he’s just not as valuable.
Abreu rebounded in the second half after a terrible first half with the Astros. I think his good batting average days are gone and he’s a .250 hitter now with 20-25 homer pop.
Manzardo looks like a .260-ish average as a rookie with low-20s bombs over a full season.
Kjerstad will probably platoon and hit for a .270-ish average and at a 25-30 homer pace, but he won’t get the PAs of Manzardo, which is why Manzardo is over Kjerstad (plus much worse plate skills for points leagues)
Noda has some really interesting metrics and fScores really like him as a .240-.250 hitter with great plate skills and 25 homer pop and 5-10 steal speed.
CES is homer or bust… I’m predicting a sub .220 line with only 20-25 homer power over a full season, because the plate skills and hit tool are so bad.
Vargas is a younger version of Jake Cronenworth. .240-.250 average with high teens homers and 10 steals over a full season, but good plate skills.
LeMahieu still has a good hit tool and could hit .280 with 10-15 homers and 5 steals.
Brown had a bad 2023, but still projects well at a cheap .240 with 25 homers and 5 steals.
Rizzo is so slow right now and slow lefties have BABIP problems. He could still hit .240-.250 with 20-25 homers/
Drury is a worse, older version of Hjerstad, but should get playing time regularly for the Angels since he’s a righty and won’t platoon.
Wilmer Flores might be a bit underrated and could be kind of a multi-position, righty version or Rizzo on a worse team in a worse ballpark. Being a .250 hitter with 20 homers should be expected.
TIER 7 (Wade – Triolo)
This is your 15 team league tier, where most of these guys end up on the waiver in anything more shallow than 15 teams with CI, MI, etc. (NFBC style).
Wade should lead off for the Giants, so there is some hidden value here.
Cronenworth regressed a bit in the power department last year and profiles more as a 10/10 guy who should hit in the .260-.270 range, not as a starting 1B.
I’ve never really liked Vaughn, but have liked Kirilloff to an extent, if he can stay healthy.
Carlos Santana is still a guy, let’s see where he winds up, but could be a cheap 20 homer guy who plays every day.
Schannuel is points only.
I don’t trust O’Hearn or Wisdom at all except as waiver adds.
JD Davis looks like a .240-.250 hitter who can pop 20 homers.
Ty France is a worse version of Jake Cronenworth and is coming off a better year than him, so I’m out on him at his current ADP.
Rowdy is essentially a slower JD Davis.
Mike Ford could hit 30 homers if he had a full season of run, but he probably won’t get it, because it will come with a .220-.240 batting average.
Raley could hit anywhere between .200 – .250 with 20 homers and 10 steals and a lot of volatility in his profile.
Menesis was a one year wonder, best case is around .240-.250 with 18-ish homers.
The issue with Cron is he’s not signed. If he had a full time gig, we could see a .240-.250 guy with 25-30 bombs, but that never happens.
Smith and Triolo have no power, while Smith has no speed and Triolo has no hit tool.
TIER 8 (Vogelbach – Mancini)
This is a big tier full of platoon bats and old guys who are probably going to be primarily pinch hitters or part-time DHs, but there are some interesting names to keep an eye on; such as Thomas Saggese, Coby Mayo, Garrett Cooper (where will he sign?), Jonathan Aranda, Hunter Goodman, Owen Caissie, Blake Sabol (where will he play?) and Joey Votto.
Please follow me on Twitter @fantasyaceball and subscribe to the Fantasy Aceball podcast for more great content throughout the season. More of my written work, including in-season daily articles can be found on FWFB and Fantasy Pros.
Name | fContact | fDiscipline | fPower | fSpeed | fDurability | TOTAL | FUTURE |
Freddie Freeman | 137 | 123 | 132 | 109 | 125 | 130 | 127 |
Bryce Harper | 108 | 128 | 161 | 93 | 100 | 118 | 118 |
Matt Olson | 108 | 133 | 167 | 66 | 123 | 128 | 131 |
Pete Alonso | 95 | 110 | 154 | 72 | 120 | 116 | 116 |
Nolan Jones | 103 | 117 | 147 | 119 | 95 | 115 | 124 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 98 | 120 | 125 | 74 | 122 | 110 | 108 |
Paul Goldschmidt | 102 | 127 | 122 | 88 | 118 | 113 | 104 |
Christian Walker | 98 | 109 | 124 | 93 | 114 | 112 | 114 |
Cody Bellinger | 104 | 97 | 110 | 111 | 107 | 110 | 120 |
Triston Casas | 103 | 143 | 134 | 67 | 84 | 106 | 112 |
Spencer Torkelson | 92 | 110 | 125 | 72 | 116 | 106 | 115 |
Luis Arraez | 200 | 166 | 66 | 71 | 109 | 116 | 121 |
Nate Lowe | 113 | 125 | 101 | 73 | 123 | 106 | 108 |
Spencer Steer | 96 | 113 | 99 | 89 | 112 | 104 | 109 |
Rhys Hoskins | 98 | 121 | 143 | 68 | 35 | 97 | 110 |
Vinnie Pasquantino | 106 | 135 | 97 | 67 | 83 | 92 | 99 |
Anthony Santander | 95 | 98 | 123 | 75 | 114 | 104 | 107 |
Yandy Diaz | 111 | 146 | 100 | 63 | 103 | 106 | 109 |
Isaac Paredes | 92 | 126 | 108 | 66 | 98 | 101 | 106 |
Brandon Donovan | 125 | 141 | 75 | 80 | 91 | 98 | 105 |
Josh Naylor | 108 | 100 | 98 | 91 | 80 | 97 | 105 |
Alec Bohm | 107 | 100 | 90 | 75 | 113 | 98 | 108 |
Brandon Belt | 105 | 136 | 158 | 67 | 69 | 103 | 104 |
Josh Bell | 105 | 116 | 110 | 61 | 115 | 100 | 97 |
Justin Turner | 109 | 115 | 97 | 68 | 106 | 101 | 96 |
Tyler Black | 90 | 132 | 73 | 143 | 69 | 96 | 108 |
Ryan Mountcastle | 114 | 93 | 117 | 74 | 95 | 98 | 100 |
Jose Abreu | 105 | 96 | 112 | 63 | 108 | 97 | 91 |
Kyle Manzardo | 96 | 122 | 109 | 65 | 59 | 87 | 100 |
Heston Kjerstad | 102 | 74 | 118 | 68 | 80 | 87 | 103 |
Ryan Noda | 95 | 128 | 121 | 82 | 85 | 99 | 99 |
Cristian Encarnacion Strand | 92 | 77 | 128 | 79 | 80 | 91 | 96 |
Miguel Vargas | 93 | 131 | 97 | 83 | 92 | 92 | 90 |
D.J. LeMahieu | 109 | 146 | 83 | 73 | 104 | 99 | 100 |
Seth Brown | 97 | 92 | 127 | 89 | 89 | 95 | 92 |
Anthony Rizzo | 101 | 105 | 106 | 57 | 69 | 90 | 86 |
Brandon Drury | 99 | 73 | 125 | 62 | 83 | 91 | 97 |
Wilmer Flores | 103 | 125 | 103 | 62 | 100 | 98 | 100 |
LaMonte Wade Jr. | 95 | 136 | 100 | 74 | 80 | 95 | 94 |
Jake Cronenworth | 106 | 118 | 82 | 87 | 94 | 93 | 88 |
Andrew Vaughn | 104 | 82 | 99 | 64 | 107 | 92 | 90 |
Alex Kirilloff | 117 | 82 | 108 | 74 | 61 | 85 | 97 |
Carlos Santana | 93 | 136 | 105 | 73 | 110 | 103 | 101 |
Nolan Schannuel | 99 | 182 | 67 | 84 | 78 | 97 | 102 |
Ryan O’Hearn | 111 | 77 | 104 | 91 | 78 | 90 | 99 |
Patrick Wisdom | 88 | 97 | 165 | 87 | 66 | 96 | 90 |
J.D. Davis | 97 | 99 | 108 | 68 | 89 | 91 | 89 |
Ty France | 102 | 95 | 82 | 63 | 117 | 90 | 86 |
Rowdy Tellez | 95 | 109 | 106 | 62 | 80 | 86 | 83 |
Mike Ford | 92 | 118 | 136 | 61 | 57 | 88 | 101 |
Luke Raley | 90 | 81 | 111 | 116 | 75 | 93 | 94 |
Joey Meneses | 106 | 87 | 96 | 66 | 114 | 94 | 96 |
C.J. Cron | 102 | 85 | 125 | 62 | 70 | 85 | 80 |
Dominic Smith | 111 | 100 | 84 | 64 | 94 | 87 | 99 |
Jared Triolo | 91 | 120 | 67 | 119 | 77 | 91 | 96 |
Dan Vogelbach | 106 | 145 | 122 | 61 | 67 | 93 | 93 |
Thomas Saggese | 96 | 82 | 100 | 98 | 69 | 85 | 96 |
Coby Mayo | 89 | 101 | 108 | 77 | 66 | 84 | 94 |
Dustin Harris | 85 | 106 | 87 | 154 | 73 | 92 | 94 |
Jake Bauers | 96 | 101 | 132 | 72 | 63 | 85 | 93 |
Garrett Cooper | 114 | 90 | 111 | 64 | 83 | 90 | 89 |
Connor Joe | 100 | 129 | 93 | 67 | 81 | 89 | 88 |
Jonathan Aranda | 92 | 117 | 96 | 69 | 84 | 87 | 86 |
Matt Mervis | 81 | 105 | 121 | 66 | 67 | 86 | 83 |
Elehuris Montero | 100 | 64 | 111 | 64 | 85 | 82 | 87 |
Hunter Goodman | 81 | 76 | 118 | 81 | 61 | 82 | 86 |
Owen Caissie | 91 | 103 | 99 | 68 | 60 | 80 | 92 |
Blake Sabol | 87 | 87 | 106 | 84 | 69 | 82 | 85 |
Damiano Palmegiani | 80 | 102 | 100 | 86 | 59 | 81 | 87 |
Joey Votto | 92 | 124 | 106 | 64 | 70 | 85 | 75 |
Pavin Smith | 92 | 140 | 90 | 67 | 59 | 81 | 83 |
Orelvis Martinez | 74 | 85 | 109 | 71 | 76 | 81 | 83 |
Justice Bigbie | 99 | 78 | 81 | 73 | 68 | 80 | 85 |
Tyler Soderstrom | 86 | 82 | 104 | 66 | 74 | 78 | 80 |
Owen Miller | 104 | 89 | 60 | 132 | 55 | 80 | 77 |
Mark Vientos | 88 | 69 | 113 | 73 | 80 | 78 | 79 |
Ivan Melendez | 92 | 67 | 103 | 64 | 51 | 73 | 92 |
Emmanuel Rivera | 106 | 102 | 79 | 68 | 73 | 77 | 75 |
Nick Pratto | 87 | 90 | 90 | 68 | 77 | 78 | 71 |
Mike Moustakas | 93 | 76 | 85 | 65 | 74 | 76 | 72 |
Jose Miranda | 91 | 89 | 73 | 67 | 76 | 73 | 75 |
Gavin Sheets | 91 | 97 | 82 | 74 | 70 | 77 | 66 |
Trey Mancini | 95 | 85 | 79 | 62 | 61 | 71 | 60 |
Leave a Reply
Friends don't let friends talk to themselves.
You must be logged in to post a comment.