What the f*** is an fScore?
I dreamed up and created the fScores during the 2021 baseball season and first introduced them at the start of the 2022 season. If you have been reading or listening to my content, you have likely heard me reference fScores or use them to compare players. I realized there was one common issue with fantasy baseball player rankings – they don’t translate to custom league settings.
Most sets of player rankings are built toward a traditional roto 5×5 setting and most people play in H2H categories or points leagues with custom settings.
So, how do we overcome this problem? I had the idea to create rankings based on core fantasy skills (named fScores for “fantasy scores”), rather than simply ranking one guy over another guy based on standard fantasy baseball league settings. This way, if you play in a points league or OBP league, something like plate discipline can be sorted to re-rank players for your specific league settings and re-weighed. Each fScore is weighed in the same measure as OPS+ or wRC+ where 100 is leave average and for example 104 is 4% better than league average.
HITTING
There are six main skills that go into an effective fantasy baseball hitter.
- fContact
- fPlate Discipline
- fPower
- fSpeed
- fDurability
- fEF (external factors)
Let’s go through these skills one by one where I’ll briefly describe what goes into each of these in my equation and also how each one plays off the other. In the following articles, I’ll go into the rankings and fScores position by position.
fContact
fContact is the hitter’s ability to make quality contact with the baseball weighed against an average MLB starter. Now, contact isn’t a direct correlation to batting average, because the ability to reach base is also dependent upon power (is the hitter hitting the ball in the infield or the outfield? Is the contact a weak grounder or a line drive?) and speed (can the hitter outrun the throw from the fielder on a weak grounder?). However, I added some measures into the 2024 fContact equation vs. previous seasons to increase the measure of quality contact vs. bad contact by adding in things like sweet spot percentage and zone contact %.
The way to think about contact in regards to fantasy stats is probably something like this:
fContact + fSpeed = BA above replacement player
fContact + fPower = HR above replacement player
fContact is built to eliminate luck from the equation by reducing BABIP effect, but we should note some hitters naturally run a higher BABIP than others, so this natural average BABIP per player is taken into account.
How are the fScores weighed?
We are weighing all of these fScores on the career totals along with the last 3 seasons (including additional weight on the last ½ season).
Career totals are given a 10% weight
3 seasons back is given a 10% weight
2 seasons back is given a 20% weight
Last season is given a 30% weight
Last ½ season is given a 30% weight
How do fScores project forward?
Additionally the total fScore is weighted based on expected 2024 fScore with a spread included on the way the player is currently trending. If a player is aging or injured and their skills are trending down, this will be seen in their Future fScore. If the player is young and improving their skills, they will be trending up in their Future fScore.
The aging curve plays a factor in Future fScore as I have done a lot of research on correlation of age to production and created an aging curve equation that plays into fScores. My research shows players peak on average from ages 27-30, however some superstar players tend to have a longer career peak than average players.
Rookies / Small Sample Sizes
I spent a lot of time this offseason perfecting rookie and minor league translation to the majors, including international correlation. I took the top 50 rookie hitters and top 50 rookie pitchers from 2023 and used their last 3 years minor league stats to correlate to their rookie seasons, then created an average correlation for each stat and used this correlation in my rookie projections for 2024 fScores, including elimination of reduction of effect of certain measures that don’t translate well from minors to majors like ERA for pitchers.
What stats go into fContact?
fContact is a weighted aggregate consisting of stats such as BABIP, Batting Average, Contact Rate, Zone Contact Rate, reverse IFFB% and Sweet Spot %.
fDiscipline
fDiscipline is the hitter’s ability to judge the strike zone, see breaking pitches, take walks and avoid strikeouts against an average MLB starter.
fDiscipline isn’t a direct correlation to OBP, because it’s also taking into consideration avoiding strikeouts and hunting good pitches to hit, so technically a higher fDiscipline will likely also lead to a higher batting average, higher HR total, higher R total and a higher SB total. fDiscipline compliments all other skills and boosts the ability to achieve higher stat totals all around.
fDiscipline is very important in younger hitters to projecting out future growth as a hitter.
What stats go into fDiscipline?
fDiscipline is a weighted aggregate consisting of stats such as BB%, K%, chase rate (O-swing%) and SwStr%.
fPower
fPower is the hitter’s ability to consistently hit the ball out of the park or hit line drives that lead to extra base hits against an average MLB starter.
fPower isn’t a direct correlation to OPS or HR, because fContact and fDiscipline must be achieved to hit the ball enough times to make fPower meaningful and fSpeed will increase the ability of the hitter to turn hard hit balls in the outfield into extra base hits.
What stats go into fPower?
fPower is a weighted aggregate consisting of stats such as ISO, barrel%, HR/FB, reverse GB%, average EV and even home ballpark HR splits.
fSpeed
fSpeed is the hitter’s pure speed matched with the ability to steal bases.
fSpeed isn’t a direct correlation to SB, because the hitter has to be able to get on base to steal bases and additionally, fSpeed weighed footspeed heavier than SB – CS, because fSpeed is an important skill to correlate to base hits and extra base hits when paired with fContact and fPower.
What stats go into fSpeed?
fSpeed is a weighted aggregate consisting of stats such as SB – CS / H + BB and 90 ft. speed splits based on handedness.
fDurability
fDurability is the hitter’s ability to stay healthy, play games and be good enough to garner consistent ABs against an average MLB starter.
fDurability should be used primarily as a way to measure the players skill with their ability to stay on the field and produce. If a player scores above average in all of the other skills, but can’t stay healthy (ie: Byron Buxton or Adalberto Mondesi), then it’s going to affect their total value to your fantasy team.
What stats go into fDurability?
fDurability is a simple weighted aggregate of G and ABs against the average MLB starter.
fEF (External Factors)
External factors weigh important factors that are not necessarily individual skills into the equation of the fScore to help provide a better ranking and read into how each player will accumulate counting stats.
What stats go into fEF?
fEF includes home park ballpark factor splits for handedness, projected lineup spot based on a custom correlation of lineup position to counting stats, average counting stats and wRC+ of the surrounding lineup.
fScore (Total and Future)
The provided total fScore is based upon a direct average of fContact, fDiscipline, fPower, fSpeed and fDurability because all five skills play off each other. fEF gets multiplied directly into the overall fScore.
fScore (Future) is considering the trending nature of all the stats aggregated into the fScore skills. They take into account the following questions: Are the consolidated skills on average trending up or down? By what percentage are they trending up or down? What is the age of the player in question and where are they on the aging curve?
When you take fScore and Future fScore it should provide you a range that the player should fall between, not taking any major player skill or habit changes such as swing change, diet change, work out regimen change that happen outside of the standard deviation of volatility in the sport.
Using the fScores in the articles, a fantasy baseball player can change how they weigh the skills or grade players based on a skill that can provide an advantage to them in the settings of their fantasy baseball league.
PITCHING
There are four main skills that go into an effective fantasy baseball pitcher:
- Durability (fPDurability)
- Stuff (fStuff)
- Control (fControl)
- Run Prevention (fERA)
NOTE: Run Prevention is designated by fERA and has within it a subcategory weighing pitching external factors (fPEF), such as defense behind the pitcher and home ballpark.
Let’s go through these skills one by one where I’ll briefly describe what goes into each of these in my equation and also how each one plays off the other. After we go through the skills, I’ll go into the rankings and fScores for starting pitchers and relief pitchers.
fPDurability
fPDurability is the pitcher’s ability to stay healthy and pitch deep into games against an average MLB starting pitcher or relief pitcher.
fPDurability should be used primarily as a way to measure the players skill with their ability to stay on the field and produce. If a player scores above average in all of the other skills, but can’t stay healthy (ie: James Paxton or Chris Sale), then it’s going to affect their total value to your fantasy team.
The way to think about fPDurability in regards to fantasy stats is probably something like this:
fPDurability = IP above replacement player
fPDurability + fStuff = K totals above replacement player
fPDurability + fERA = better overall assistance in ERA, QS or W above replacement player
Higher fPDurability pitchers will positively or negatively affect your ratio stats for pitchers when weighed against the totals of your other pitchers.
How are the fScores weighed season by season?
We are weighing all of these fScores for pitchers on the player’s last 3 seasons (including additional weight on the last ½ season).
3 seasons back is given a 15% weight
2 seasons back is given a 25% weight
Last season is given a 30% weight
Last ½ season is given a 30% weight
Pitching fScores have both a standard fScore and a future fScore just like the hitting fScores. The standard fScore is what the skills point to that player achieving whereas the future fScore is based on trending what the player’s likely ceiling on the season is from their expected outcome based on previous skills shown.
What stats go into fPDurability?
fPDurability is determined by taking average season IP totals, GS totals and IP / GS totals for starters and weighed against the league average starter. RP fPDurability totals are weighed against league average relievers, rather than starters.
One thing to keep in mind with pitchers is they are about 20% more prone to serious injury than position players and something like Tommy John surgery will completely destroy their fPDurability if this surgery was performed any time in the last 3 seasons, even for a previously categorized “work horse” like Chris Sale.
Rookies / Small Sample Sizes
As with hitting fScores (and even more so with pitching) I don’t have as much information to pull from at the Major League level and have had to attempt to synthesize their minor league stats at approximately averages based on a correlation of the top 50 rookie pitchers and how the transitioned from the minors to the majors.
This by no means is a perfect translation from minor league stats to major league stats and many of the fScores utilize statcast data, which is more or less not provided for minor leaguers. So this should be kept into consideration when analyzing the fScores of minor leaguers / prospects, rookies and more or less anyone with less than two seasons of experience at the Major League level. From my findings fStuff and fControl are more predictive for rookies than externals or fERA.
fStuff
fStuff is the pitcher’s ability to throw effective strikes that lead to strikeouts or progressing in the count. We all love pitcher stuff right? fStuff is what leads to the fun Pitching Ninja gifs we pitching nerds watch all day.
fStuff isn’t a direct correlation to strikeouts, because we don’t really have any way to measure pitch sequencing effectiveness, but it measures the important traits of getting non foul ball strikes.
What stats go into fStuff?
fStuff is a weighted aggregate consisting of stats such as CSW%, K%, swinging strike rate, fastball velocity and Eno Serris’ Stuff+.
fControl
fControl is the pitcher’s ability to avoid walks and pitch in or around the strike zone effectively against an average MLB starter.
fControl is a close correlation to WHIP and to avoid walks in general.
What stats go into fControl?
fControl is a weighted aggregate consisting of stats such as WHIP, BB%, first pitch strikes (f-str%), pitcher (chase rate) O-swing% and Eno’s Location +.
fERA
fERA is the pitcher’s ability to limit runs against
What stats go into fERA?
fERA is a weighted aggregate consisting of stats such as SIERA, ERA, BAA, HR/9, Barrel%, home ballpark and defensive factors.
Also affecting fERA are pEFs (pitching external factors) and what goes into this calculation are park factors for the pitcher’s home park and team defense behind the pitcher with a custom correlation taken by averaging team DRS, team OAA and tem DeF factor and arsenal effects. There are studies pitchers with 3 plus pitches or more are more likely to go deep and snag quality starts, so quantity of plus pitches is factored into pEFs.
fScore (Total and Future)
The provided total fScore is based upon a direct average of fPDurability, fStuff, fControl and fERA because all four skills play off each other.
fScore (Future) is considering the trending nature of all the stats aggregated into the fScore skills. They take into account the following questions: Are the consolidated skills on average trending up or down? By what percentage are they trending up or down?
When you take fScore and Future fScore it should provide you a range that the player should fall between, not taking any major player skill or habit changes such as developing new pitches, velocity uptick from previous seasons, diet change, work out regimen change that happen outside of the standard deviation of volatility in the sport.
Using the spreadsheets in the articles, a fantasy baseball player can change how they weigh the skills or grade players based on a skill that can provide an advantage to them in the settings of their fantasy baseball league.
In future articles we will go position by position using my fScores spreadsheets and discuss player rankings and tiers. By providing each player an fScore, tiering players out is more clear than ever before. Additionally, you will note I do not follow in my rankings the fScores by the “T” but use them as a strong guideline and may shift players up or down based on my biased notions of perceived progress or possibility to avoid injuries or get better in certain areas that can’t be shown by numbers scouting, which the fScores undoubtedly are doing.
Now you know what the f*** fScores are and why they are such a great f***ing tool for you to use in all your fantasy baseball pre-draft prep. Please follow me on Twitter @fantasyaceball and subscribe to the Fantasy Aceball podcast for more great content throughout the season. More of my written work, including in-season daily articles can be found on FWFB and Fantasy Pros.
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