In this article, we are going to look at some of the leaders in pitching stats according to the updated ATC projections. For those who don’t know ATC projections have been arguably the most accurate projections in the past couple of years. The creator of ATC is Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY) who has recently won the FSWA award as writer of the year! He is also very personable and if anyone has any questions about his projection system feel free to reach out to him on Twitter!
Innings Leaders
Top of the group:
Jacob deGrom: 74.0 innings
Gerrit Cole: 74.0 innings
This makes a ton of sense as deGrom is one of, if not the best pitcher in the game. He has the lowest ERA for the last two years combined. And of course, Cole was arguably the best pitcher last year so he should have no issue going deep into games as well. In a shortened season counting stats will be extremely important and when it comes to pitchers your best shot at being the best is having pitchers who go deep into games.
Notable:
Jose Berrios: 72.0 innings
James Paxton: 44.0 innings
Berrios projecting to produce the second-most innings is pretty interesting to me. While the projections aren’t taking this into account, this could definitely happen since the Twins have the easiest schedule in the league. If Berrios stays consistent and pitches deep into games he will be a solid investment for drafts. On the flip side, we have James Paxton who is only projected for 44 innings. This seems to be more about health than performance. But the Yankees have already said they will limit their rotation to 60 pitches to start the season. It wouldn’t be shocking if they limit Paxton most of the season thus hurting his fantasy value.
ERA Leaders
Top of the group:
Jacob deGrom: 2.87 ERA
Gerrit Cole: 3.13 ERA
No shocker here as we stated earlier that both of these pitchers are the elite of the elite. For those worrying about deGrom and facing a DH now, don’t worry about that. He can handle hitters with ease and has been very successful when facing AL teams and their DH’s.
Notable:
Max Fried: 3.62 ERA
Zack Wheeler: 4.06
Everyone has love for Max Fried, but seeing projection systems loving him as well makes his draft value even better. Fried started to implement his slider late in the year and became one of the better pitchers in the league. Pair that with one of the best 12-6 curveballs you will see and we have ourselves a breakout candidate. Wheeler is a pitcher that every fantasy player should be dodging this year. With his child on the way, it means at the very least a late start for Wheeler. Which means very few innings and not a lot of counting stats. He also isn’t sure if he will play at all after the birth of his child. Stay away.
Strikeout Leaders
Top of the group:
Gerrit Cole: 102 strikeouts
Jacob deGrom: 89 strikeouts
Tired of hearing their names yet? Let’s discuss strategy here. When it comes to drafts these two might be more valuable than ever. Both have been moving up in drafts as of late and deservedly so. This year with the uncertainty of pitchers and their pitch counts it seems very important to draft them early and to make sure to get an ace.
Notable:
Patrick Corbin: 78
Dylan Bundy: 66
Corbin is projected to be in the top 15 in terms of strikeouts all while also projecting for 70.0 innings and a 3.66 ERA. Based on this projection that makes him one of the best pitchers in 2020. He has been one of the highest floor pitchers for the past two years and definitely look for him on draft day. His slider was arguably the best pitch in baseball last year. Dylan Bundy moves to the Angels and should be using his secondary pitches a lot more. Based on ATC projections he should have the same amount of strikeouts as Dinelson Lamet. Bundy is going almost 100 pitchers later. Grab him at his nice discount.
WHIP Leaders
Top of the group:
Justin Verlander: 1.00
Max Scherzer: 1.03
Both of these pitchers were stellar last year but both of them have some question marks. Verlander is getting older and older while also having a home run issue. Scherzer is having back issues, so much where he couldn’t stand up at one point during their World Series run. But with a shortened season both of them should be able to handle this season just fine.
Notable:
Chris Paddack: 1.11
Kyle Freeland: 1.48
That WHIP for Paddack is extremely impressive. That is better than Flaherty, Bieber, and Glasnow. Overall ATC projects him to have a line of 62.0 innings, 3.62 ERA, and 67 strikeouts. While Paddack certainly could see this production, he really needs to work on developing a third pitch to take the next step. As for Mr. Freeland, ATC really hates him still. While Freeland probably won’t be as bad as last year, don’t be hopeful for a rebound this year.
Projections systems are a ton of fun to look at. They are also a very useful tool when it comes to preparing for fantasy baseball. Check out ATC and other projections on Fangraphs.com.
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