The first round of the 2019 Draft was fairly small as far as typical dynasty prospects were concerned mostly due to the talent that was available on defense in this draft. There were a few surprises in the first round, as well as a couple players that exceeded my expectations this year, and have a bit higher stock for dynasty leagues going forward. Most of the focus for this article is dynasty driven, there is also redraft consideration.
1.1 – Kyler Murray – QB – Arizona Cardinals
With an average draft position in most redraft at 130, most of the time Kyler was being selected as a backup QB for most teams. In dynasty leagues – especially those that are two QB, the draft capital to select him was substantially higher depending on the format. Kyler showed some promise initially with his mobility, but seemed like the Arizona Cardinals were determined to keep Kyler in a safe spot most of the time – limiting his fantasy upside. With the removal of David Johnson as the bell cow back and Kenyan Drake running wild this only further capped him for the rest of the 2019 season. Murray had six games without a passing touchdown, and was able to hedge this with rushing touchdowns in four of these games. Most of his passes were short and safe in nature and rarely pushed the ball downfield most games. Based on how the team is constructed and the personnel unless there is major development in training camp next year, Kyler seems to be utilized more as a game manager capping his upside. For redraft next year, I would leave him on the waiver wire or draft as a backup if needed. For dynasty purposes, I would temper my expectations next year and expect similar numbers. The management of Kyler in the offense caps the WR corps, especially the deep threat targets unless they can take a short route to the house.
1.6 – Daniel Jones – QB – New York Giants
The New York Giants were mocked during and after the draft for trading up to draft Daniel Jones, who most likely would have been available for their pick later. Draft management aside, Jones showed some decent flashes in the start of the season taking over for Eli Manning in the first game of the season and continued this throughout the season. Jones found a way to produce steadily even when the majority of his starting receiving corp was injured. Jones was largely undrafted in most re-draft leagues, but did have some value in dynasty leagues – albeit expectations were not high for him. He did fairly well overall given the circumstances, and exceeded what I expected out of him. He had always been a good athlete, but there were a lot of questions for him as a QB. He still has a good amount of development ahead of him, and needs to do a better job protecting the ball. For better or worse, he will have to learn a new offense this year with Jason Garret at the helm as the OC. This could hamper Saquon Barkley’s production, and in turn also put a lower ceiling on Jones. For redraft right now, he’s waiver wire material. I still have some hope for him in dynasty leagues, but the arrow that was pointing up has some question marks right now.
1.8 – T.J. Hockenson – TE – Detroit Lions
Detroit drafted a TE in typical Lions fashion drafting players that aren’t of what their greatest need are yet again. Hockenson was my favorite TE in the draft, but for most of the season was hurt or largely ineffective. The best game Hockenson had was vs. ARI. However, every team destroyed ARI with their TE, so that game seems to be more in line with what the rest of the league was able to do. Detroit’s offense went largely to the run game establishment until Kerryon Johnson was hurt, but most of the attention was shifted to Marvin Jones Jr, and Kenny Golladay. Hockenson saw few targets, and then was done for the year with and ankle injury. From a redraft perspective Hockenson is going to be waiver wire option initially. I still have a lot of hope for him for dynasty – but overall, he’s slipped a bit in the rankings for me. Detroit has never really focused their offense on the TE, so unless this changes and what they showed from a game plan perspective changes, Hockenson’s ceiling may be substantially lower.
1.15 – Dwayne Haskins – QB – Washington Redskins
Haskins fell to the Redskins at pick 15, and seemed like he would be a good fit overall. He was going to be a development project and would have benefited from a full season on the bench. Other than coming in for a couple spots due to injury it seemed like Washington was going to follow this route. With Case Keenum getting concussed, Haskins was thrust into the starting role in week 9. Haskins looked lost at times and hadn’t caught up to the game speed most of the season. He did start making some progress toward the end of the season, but has a ways to go before he can reach his ceiling from a development standpoint. The Redskins hopefully will get Guice back next season and continue with solid production from Adrian Peterson to take the load off of Haskins as it appears he is going to be the starter going forward, unless they sign another QB in the offseason that pushes Haskins in camp. For redraft, Haskins will be waiver wire material. I still like him for dynasty and is my favorite QB of the draft from a talent perspective. He will need some time to develop and based on his play in the small sample we have for him, it may have pushed that timeline out a bit further.
1.20 – Noah Fant – TE – Denver Broncos
The other half of the dynamic TE duo from Iowa, went to Denver with the 20th overall pick. Fant put up a respectable line in his first season with the Broncos, and showed off his open field speed in a couple of games taking some long receptions to the house. Otherwise, he wasn’t very utilized in the passing game, getting 4 or less targets in 12 of 16 games. With Drew Lock getting the start later on in the season, the starters job may shift to him in the next season. With a young QB, usually the TE is their safety blanket, so will be something to keep an eye on going into training camp to see if this trend is established. With most rookie TE not coming into prominence until their third season on average, Fant, like Hockenson may not explode next season either. He should have solid production, but for redrafts, is waiver wire material. For dynasty, I still view him much as I did before the season as my second favorite TE in the draft, but is going to have to rely on the open space speed to make a significant impact.
1.24 – Josh Jacobs – RB – OAK
Jacobs fell to a team that needed a solid, productive RB. Oakland got just that with Jacobs – even though they didn’t use him to the full extent of his talents. Jacobs doesn’t have game breaking speed but is a solid all around back. I was higher on him for PPR based on what he showed in college, but Oakland didn’t use him as much in the passing game as I anticipated given the offense. With Derek Carr continuing to plateau, I would expect Jacobs to be used much in the role he was last year. Solid low end RB2 in redraft leagues, and in dynasty leagues, he is trending up, and should be considered a top 15 RB. If the Raiders start to use him more in the passing game, he could see considerable uptick in value – especially in PPR leagues.
1.25 – Marquise Brown – WR – BAL
Brown felt overdrafted to me, and am always hesitant on speedsters from a fantasy perspective especially if they don’t have a fully developed route tree. Baltimore had drafted other similar players, albeit not with as high potential ceiling as Brown, and they hadn’t progressed much in their offense. Turning the offense over to Lamar Jackson this year, saw a considerable change in the dynamic that the Ravens brought on the field. When the Ravens didn’t need to play an aggressive game, they tended to feature Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews as the primary targets. For games they had to be more aggressive they turned it over to Lamar and those were usually the games you saw Brown get exposure. Durability was a concern with Brown, and that continued this season with him missing about a month. For redraft purposes, I don’t mind him as a WR3-4, but would rather have someone with a guaranteed workload on a week to week basis. If you are able to get a solid pairing initially, he might be worth taking a shot on for upside from a week to week basis, but need to understand you could get a big week or nothing. His stock is a little lower for me for PPR leagues due to lack of targets than it would be in standard scoring. Dynasty, he still has decent value, but players like him are more volatile to own given the development and injury potential. I haven’t been very high on him, so unless he shows me otherwise, I will let him be on another persons team.
1.32 – N’Keal Harry – WR – NE
Big bodied WR, Harry was a decent fit for the NE offense to offset slot receiver Julian Edelman and give them a solid #2 possession receiver for the coming seasons. Unfortunately for Harry, he was injured before the season started and placed on IR – designated to return. This slowed his overall progress this season, and was slow to emerge once he was removed from IR. He did show some decent signs in the last two games of the season and the playoff game vs Tennessee with 7 targets in each – taking a larger share of the offense. He wasn’t able to convert many of the targets to receptions, but the fact Brady started looking his way more seems well for him. Brady should be back under center in 2020 for his 20th season, things are looking up for Harry and given that he didn’t make a lot of impact his rookie year, could be a draft day flyer for WR in redraft. In dynasty, I still like his prospects, and would try to make a trade for him while his value is still uncertain to some extent.
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