Three weeks ago, I published an introduction to my expected fantasy points metric (xFP). The model, like many others that have been created, takes into account a number of different characteristics about a given pass to develop and expected fantasy points value. The model is currently only designed for passing plays and is aligned with Full PPR scoring. Every week I will review the players with the highest expected point totals up to that point. As the season goes on, we will be able to separate QB play and defensive impact to determine an individual WR “skill”. This will allow me to build a weekly projection model as well.
Leaders
xFP Leaders | |||
---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Actual Points | Expected Points |
C.Ridley | ATL | 69.4 | 66.18 |
A.Cooper | DAL | 64.6 | 62.50 |
A.Robinson | CHI | 57.6 | 58.59 |
T.McLaurin | WAS | 57.7 | 56.44 |
K.Allen | LAC | 54.7 | 56.10 |
S.Diggs | BUF | 65.3 | 52.64 |
D.Hopkins | ARI | 65.2 | 52.46 |
D.Waller | LV | 45.2 | 51.85 |
A.Green | CIN | 18.9 | 49.69 |
T.Lockett | SEA | 66.8 | 48.06 |
A.Thielen | MIN | 62.4 | 46.25 |
J.Edelman | NE | 44.4 | 45.92 |
O.Beckham | CLE | 49.6 | 45.43 |
T.Boyd | CIN | 52.0 | 43.84 |
D.Slayton | NYG | 43.1 | 43.58 |
D.Moore | CAR | 37.8 | 43.23 |
T.Higgins | CIN | 33.2 | 42.37 |
R.Anderson | CAR | 57.7 | 41.95 |
T.Hill | KC | 62.1 | 41.22 |
T.Kelce | KC | 53.7 | 40.65 |
M.Evans | TB | 61.5 | 40.64 |
D.Metcalf | SEA | 66.3 | 39.87 |
A.Kamara | NO | 65.1 | 39.65 |
C.Lamb | DAL | 53.4 | 39.52 |
D.Schultz | DAL | 41.8 | 39.33 |
Z.Ertz | PHI | 29.4 | 38.72 |
M.Brown | BAL | 32.2 | 37.97 |
L.Thomas | WAS | 22.7 | 37.90 |
N.Harry | NE | 31.6 | 37.63 |
C.Beasley | BUF | 41.0 | 37.51 |
D.Parker | MIA | 43.4 | 37.44 |
E.Engram | NYG | 21.6 | 37.40 |
R.Gage | ATL | 36.3 | 36.98 |
A.Jones | GB | 33.0 | 36.12 |
J.Jeudy | DEN | 42.9 | 35.99 |
N.Fant | DEN | 43.4 | 35.77 |
S.Watkins | KC | 35.3 | 35.63 |
M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 33.0 | 35.11 |
S.Miller | TB | 38.5 | 34.43 |
M.Gesicki | MIA | 37.5 | 34.30 |
M.Andrews | BAL | 46.6 | 34.02 |
E.Sanders | NO | 37.2 | 33.41 |
H.Henry | LAC | 33.5 | 32.74 |
J.Brown | BUF | 38.4 | 32.65 |
M.Gallup | DAL | 40.0 | 32.28 |
J.Graham | CHI | 38.6 | 32.27 |
K.Bourne | SF | 32.2 | 32.13 |
I.Ford | MIA | 22.6 | 32.09 |
C.Kupp | LA | 52.4 | 31.33 |
R.Woods | LA | 38.4 | 31.09 |
C.Hogan | NYJ | 21.3 | 30.98 |
Z.Pascal | IND | 23.9 | 30.62 |
H.Hurst | ATL | 34.7 | 30.14 |
C.Conley | JAX | 18.7 | 29.87 |
W.Fuller | HOU | 48.4 | 29.78 |
H.Renfrow | LV | 33.9 | 29.31 |
G.Ward | PHI | 29.6 | 29.27 |
T.Hilton | IND | 22.7 | 29.22 |
D.Johnson | PIT | 27.9 | 28.84 |
D.Inman | WAS | 28.0 | 28.54 |
E.Elliott | DAL | 33.4 | 28.47 |
T.Patrick | DEN | 40.9 | 28.42 |
J.Smith | TEN | 42.6 | 28.24 |
J.Crowder | NYJ | 34.9 | 28.19 |
B.Cooks | HOU | 18.8 | 27.87 |
J.Jefferson | MIN | 48.8 | 27.75 |
D.Byrd | NE | 24.9 | 27.59 |
T.Smith | NO | 37.6 | 27.43 |
D.Adams | GB | 39.7 | 27.23 |
T.Hockenson | DET | 37.5 | 27.12 |
P.Williams | MIA | 17.9 | 26.96 |
A.Humphries | TEN | 27.1 | 26.90 |
D.Jackson | PHI | 17.1 | 26.63 |
A.Miller | CHI | 29.8 | 26.49 |
G.Kittle | SF | 38.2 | 26.36 |
- Despite the dud of a Week 4 performance, Calvin Ridley finds himself on top of the board. The Falcons will be trailing often so he still should see high end volume
- As the number 1 WR in the best passing offense in the league, it is no surprise that Amari Cooper finds himself second on this list. This will be a passing game that is fairly hard to predict but Cooper is an elite option rest of season
- The Bears offense is truly lacking talent but that just means the targets will funnel to Allen Robinson. The results won’t always look pretty but he should put WR2 numbers rest of season
- While the move to Kyle Allen is not exactly a positive one for McLaurin, the lack of better weapons should keep him as an elite option
- Keenan Allen is being peppered with targets from Justin Herbert, those of you who drafted him despite the concerns with Tyrod Taylor’s skillset are being rewarded handsomely
Another way of looking at this is the per target leaders. This week I will be looking at the top players with at least 15 targets. This should be a list of names to target in your leagues going forward.
xFP Per Target Leaders | |||
---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Targets | xFP Per Target |
T.Higgins | CIN | 22 | 1.93 |
M.Andrews | BAL | 20 | 1.70 |
C.Ridley | ATL | 40 | 1.65 |
S.Miller | TB | 21 | 1.64 |
Z.Pascal | IND | 19 | 1.61 |
P.Williams | MIA | 17 | 1.59 |
A.Jones | GB | 23 | 1.57 |
M.Evans | TB | 26 | 1.56 |
C.Beasley | BUF | 24 | 1.56 |
M.Gesicki | MIA | 22 | 1.56 |
J.Edelman | NE | 30 | 1.53 |
T.Smith | NO | 18 | 1.52 |
D.Sample | CIN | 16 | 1.52 |
E.Sanders | NO | 22 | 1.52 |
O.Beckham | CLE | 30 | 1.51 |
A.Green | CIN | 33 | 1.51 |
S.Diggs | BUF | 35 | 1.50 |
D.Slayton | NYG | 29 | 1.50 |
C.Conley | JAX | 20 | 1.49 |
A.Thielen | MIN | 31 | 1.49 |
B.Aiyuk | SF | 16 | 1.49 |
A.Robinson | CHI | 40 | 1.46 |
K.Bourne | SF | 22 | 1.46 |
M.Brown | BAL | 26 | 1.46 |
D.Schultz | DAL | 27 | 1.46 |
T.Lockett | SEA | 33 | 1.46 |
T.McLaurin | WAS | 39 | 1.45 |
D.Inman | WAS | 20 | 1.43 |
D.Metcalf | SEA | 28 | 1.42 |
J.Reed | SF | 16 | 1.42 |
T.Hill | KC | 29 | 1.42 |
J.Brown | BUF | 23 | 1.42 |
J.Smith | TEN | 20 | 1.41 |
M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 25 | 1.40 |
L.Thomas | WAS | 27 | 1.40 |
C.Edmonds | ARI | 17 | 1.40 |
J.Graham | CHI | 23 | 1.40 |
A.Miller | CHI | 19 | 1.39 |
J.Jefferson | MIN | 20 | 1.39 |
H.Hurst | ATL | 22 | 1.37 |
R.Gage | ATL | 27 | 1.37 |
C.Lamb | DAL | 29 | 1.36 |
C.Carson | SEA | 16 | 1.36 |
D.Adams | GB | 20 | 1.36 |
J.Landry | CLE | 19 | 1.36 |
T.Hockenson | DET | 20 | 1.36 |
T.Patrick | DEN | 21 | 1.35 |
W.Fuller | HOU | 22 | 1.35 |
D.Moore | CAR | 32 | 1.35 |
A.Lazard | GB | 17 | 1.35 |
C.Hogan | NYJ | 23 | 1.35 |
M.Gallup | DAL | 24 | 1.35 |
A.Humphries | TEN | 20 | 1.34 |
N.Harry | NE | 28 | 1.34 |
D.Parker | MIA | 28 | 1.34 |
G.Olsen | SEA | 18 | 1.34 |
B.Berrios | NYJ | 15 | 1.34 |
Z.Ertz | PHI | 29 | 1.34 |
H.Renfrow | LV | 22 | 1.33 |
D.Jackson | PHI | 20 | 1.33 |
K.Golladay | DET | 15 | 1.33 |
T.Higbee | LA | 15 | 1.33 |
T.Hilton | IND | 22 | 1.33 |
B.Cooks | HOU | 21 | 1.33 |
N.Fant | DEN | 27 | 1.32 |
O.Howard | TB | 19 | 1.32 |
S.Watkins | KC | 27 | 1.32 |
J.Cook | NO | 15 | 1.32 |
G.Kittle | SF | 20 | 1.32 |
A.Hooper | CLE | 17 | 1.31 |
J.Jones | ATL | 20 | 1.30 |
M.Jones | DET | 19 | 1.30 |
K.Cole | JAX | 18 | 1.30 |
D.Waller | LV | 40 | 1.30 |
T.Boyd | CIN | 34 | 1.29 |
- Once again Tee Higgins is the leader in per target value. He is slowly overtaking the AJ Green role and if he is still available he needs to be owned in all leagues
- For those of you who are desperate Scotty Miller is seeing high value targets. With the majority of the Bucs WR corps injured he is a great play of Thursday night
- With the injury to Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal has seen an uptick in targets. They are high value and hes a decent guy for deeper leagues for those of you who are desperate
- It will be interesting to see how Tre’Quan Smith’s role evolves with the return of Michael Thomas but hes been a great fill in player for fantasy managers in the past few weeks. The talent is there the key will be seeing if the targets are still there once Thomas returns
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