Two weeks ago, I published an introduction into my expected fantasy points metric (xFP). The model like many others that have been created takes into account a number of different characteristics about a given pass to develop and expected fantasy points value. The model is currently only designed for passing plays and is aligned with Full PPR scoring. Every week I will review the players with the highest expected point totals up to that point. Soon I will not only provide the overall leaders but a weekly review as well. As the season goes on, we will be able to separate QB play and defensive impact to determine an individual WR “skill”. We are likely a week away from a large enough sample to be able to do this.
Leaders
xFP Leaders | |||
---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Actual Points | Expected Points |
C.Ridley | ATL | 69.4 | 57.86 |
A.Robinson | CHI | 38.0 | 44.05 |
K.Allen | LAC | 44.5 | 43.39 |
T.Lockett | SEA | 61.9 | 42.94 |
A.Green | CIN | 18.1 | 42.46 |
D.Hopkins | ARI | 57.6 | 42.38 |
S.Diggs | BUF | 50.8 | 41.25 |
A.Cooper | DAL | 39.2 | 40.98 |
J.Edelman | NE | 33.4 | 39.81 |
T.McLaurin | WAS | 40.9 | 39.24 |
D.Waller | LV | 31.9 | 36.29 |
D.Moore | CAR | 30.9 | 36.20 |
Z.Ertz | PHI | 26.5 | 34.28 |
L.Thomas | WAS | 21.4 | 33.88 |
A.Kamara | NO | 60.0 | 33.36 |
C.Beasley | BUF | 30.3 | 32.84 |
D.Slayton | NYG | 36.8 | 32.47 |
T.Boyd | CIN | 39.5 | 32.21 |
T.Hill | KC | 47.7 | 31.98 |
O.Beckham | CLE | 27.0 | 31.49 |
R.Gage | ATL | 33.1 | 30.99 |
J.Jeudy | DEN | 23.8 | 30.23 |
T.Kelce | KC | 45.2 | 30.14 |
T.Higgins | CIN | 23.5 | 29.93 |
D.Metcalf | SEA | 53.7 | 29.85 |
N.Fant | DEN | 37.4 | 29.62 |
M.Evans | TB | 39.8 | 29.60 |
A.Thielen | MIN | 41.0 | 29.57 |
M.Gesicki | MIA | 35.5 | 29.56 |
A.Jones | GB | 20.5 | 29.08 |
R.Anderson | CAR | 43.8 | 29.02 |
D.Johnson | PIT | 27.9 | 28.84 |
H.Henry | LAC | 28.6 | 28.40 |
M.Andrews | BAL | 27.4 | 28.28 |
J.Smith | TEN | 42.6 | 28.24 |
C.Lamb | DAL | 31.0 | 28.05 |
N.Harry | NE | 22.0 | 27.99 |
E.Engram | NYG | 15.1 | 27.41 |
D.Adams | GB | 39.7 | 27.23 |
J.Graham | CHI | 33.3 | 26.95 |
A.Humphries | TEN | 27.1 | 26.90 |
S.Watkins | KC | 29.0 | 26.64 |
D.Jackson | PHI | 17.1 | 26.63 |
M.Brown | BAL | 21.6 | 26.33 |
J.Brown | BUF | 32.2 | 24.74 |
J.Smith-Schuster | PIT | 42.5 | 24.19 |
B.Cooks | HOU | 18.8 | 24.13 |
C.Conley | JAX | 12.8 | 24.03 |
M.Gallup | DAL | 36.1 | 23.90 |
D.Parker | MIA | 27.4 | 23.88 |
D.Schultz | DAL | 26.6 | 23.75 |
M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 26.5 | 23.58 |
C.Kupp | LA | 37.0 | 23.52 |
Q.Cephus | DET | 12.7 | 23.48 |
M.Williams | LAC | 13.5 | 23.48 |
K.Bourne | SF | 21.4 | 23.29 |
C.Davis | TEN | 34.1 | 23.07 |
A.Lazard | GB | 43.9 | 22.92 |
J.Reed | SF | 26.0 | 22.78 |
P.Williams | MIA | 15.9 | 22.73 |
K.Cole | JAX | 34.3 | 22.44 |
D.Inman | WAS | 23.1 | 22.21 |
T.Hilton | IND | 18.3 | 22.19 |
S.Miller | TB | 21.7 | 22.14 |
D.Amendola | DET | 22.0 | 22.08 |
D.Goedert | PHI | 26.3 | 22.05 |
E.Elliott | DAL | 22.3 | 22.01 |
R.Woods | LA | 31.8 | 21.83 |
G.Ward | PHI | 23.8 | 21.78 |
H.Hurst | ATL | 27.6 | 21.63 |
J.Jones | ATL | 23.6 | 21.48 |
M.Jones | DET | 24.4 | 20.89 |
J.Jefferson | MIN | 36.5 | 20.67 |
E.Sanders | NO | 24.9 | 20.50 |
T.Hockenson | DET | 29.6 | 20.02 |
- The top spot has been overtaken by Calvin Ridley. The Falcons WR should continue to post WR1 numbers going forward especially with the injuries to Gage and Jones
- Nick Foles “might” not be better than Mitch Trubisky but he should be an upgrade for Allen Robinson. Buy him now
- I was down on Keenan Allen due to his skillset not aligning with Tyrod Taylor’s. However, he is perfect for a rookie QB and is getting peppered with targets
- Tyler Lockett has always been incredibly efficient but this season is even more impressive. He will always rely on that efficiency but he is a guy I think can maintain it
- Logan Thomas has been getting elite usage but the numbers have not come yet. A change in QB or some small improvement in play from Haskins could make him a top 5 TE
- The usage for OBJ is still there, I think there is a breakout game coming soon
Another way of looking at this is the per target leaders. This week I will be looking at the top players with at least 10 targets. This should be a list of names to target in your leagues going forward.
xFP Per Target Leaders | |||
---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Targets | xFP Per Target |
T.Higgins | CIN | 15 | 2.00 |
Q.Cephus | DET | 13 | 1.81 |
D.Robinson | KC | 11 | 1.78 |
Z.Pascal | IND | 11 | 1.71 |
M.Williams | LAC | 14 | 1.68 |
M.Andrews | BAL | 17 | 1.66 |
J.Edelman | NE | 24 | 1.66 |
C.Ridley | ATL | 35 | 1.65 |
M.Evans | TB | 18 | 1.64 |
C.Beasley | BUF | 20 | 1.64 |
P.Williams | MIA | 14 | 1.62 |
A.Jones | GB | 18 | 1.62 |
M.Alie-Cox | IND | 11 | 1.61 |
S.Miller | TB | 14 | 1.58 |
E.Sanders | NO | 13 | 1.58 |
T.McLaurin | WAS | 25 | 1.57 |
M.Gesicki | MIA | 19 | 1.56 |
C.Godwin | TB | 13 | 1.54 |
A.Green | CIN | 28 | 1.52 |
C.Conley | JAX | 16 | 1.50 |
J.Graham | CHI | 18 | 1.50 |
D.Parker | MIA | 16 | 1.49 |
D.Inman | WAS | 15 | 1.48 |
T.Lockett | SEA | 29 | 1.48 |
D.Slayton | NYG | 22 | 1.48 |
S.Diggs | BUF | 28 | 1.47 |
L.Thomas | WAS | 23 | 1.47 |
A.Robinson | CHI | 30 | 1.47 |
M.Brown | BAL | 18 | 1.46 |
T.Higbee | LA | 11 | 1.46 |
K.Bourne | SF | 16 | 1.46 |
O.Beckham | CLE | 22 | 1.43 |
Z.Ertz | PHI | 24 | 1.43 |
C.Carson | SEA | 12 | 1.42 |
J.Reed | SF | 16 | 1.42 |
J.Smith | TEN | 20 | 1.41 |
N.Fant | DEN | 21 | 1.41 |
A.Thielen | MIN | 21 | 1.41 |
T.Patrick | DEN | 14 | 1.40 |
D.Moore | CAR | 26 | 1.39 |
T.Hill | KC | 23 | 1.39 |
E.Ebron | PIT | 14 | 1.39 |
M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 17 | 1.39 |
R.Cobb | HOU | 13 | 1.39 |
J.Jefferson | MIN | 15 | 1.38 |
J.Brown | BUF | 18 | 1.37 |
E.Engram | NYG | 20 | 1.37 |
O.Howard | TB | 13 | 1.37 |
T.Smith | NO | 14 | 1.37 |
D.Adams | GB | 20 | 1.36 |
A.Miller | CHI | 14 | 1.36 |
D.Metcalf | SEA | 22 | 1.36 |
H.Hurst | ATL | 16 | 1.35 |
A.Lazard | GB | 17 | 1.35 |
A.Humphries | TEN | 20 | 1.34 |
J.Jones | ATL | 16 | 1.34 |
B.Cooks | HOU | 18 | 1.34 |
B.Aiyuk | SF | 11 | 1.34 |
C.Lamb | DAL | 21 | 1.34 |
S.Watkins | KC | 20 | 1.33 |
D.Jackson | PHI | 20 | 1.33 |
B.Berrios | NYJ | 12 | 1.33 |
M.Hardman | KC | 10 | 1.32 |
K.Cole | JAX | 17 | 1.32 |
G.Olsen | SEA | 11 | 1.32 |
J.Cook | NO | 15 | 1.32 |
H.Renfrow | LV | 14 | 1.31 |
G.Tate | NYG | 12 | 1.31 |
T.Hilton | IND | 17 | 1.31 |
D.Waller | LV | 28 | 1.30 |
R.Gage | ATL | 24 | 1.29 |
W.Fuller | HOU | 15 | 1.29 |
J.Smith-Schuster | PIT | 19 | 1.27 |
N.Harry | NE | 22 | 1.27 |
J.Landry | CLE | 13 | 1.27 |
- Tee Higgins should be universally owned, the high value targets will eventually be coupled with high volume
- Going a little further down the list, Cole Beasley is the first name that really shocks me, hes getting high value targets out of the slot, hes a decent waiver add if still available
- The second name that jumps is Mo Allie Cox. The Colts’ TE is not quite seeing the volumn but he has been able to garner elite value targets. This is a TE1 starter pack
- Terry McLaurin has been a bit of a disappointment but the usage and value is there. Do not give up and hopefully the Football Team’s offense will improve
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