Last week I published an introduction into my expected fantasy points metric (xFP). The model like many others that have been created takes into account a number of different characteristics about a given pass to develop and expected fantasy points value. The model is currently only designed for passing plays and is aligned with Full PPR scoring. Every week I will review the players with the highest expected point totals up to that point. Soon I will not only provide the overall leaders but a weekly review as well.
Leaders
xFP Leaders | |||
---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Actual Points | Expected Points |
A.Green | CIN | 12.0 | 35.35 |
C.Ridley | ATL | 55.9 | 33.31 |
D.Moore | CAR | 23.4 | 30.67 |
S.Diggs | BUF | 37.9 | 30.51 |
J.Edelman | NE | 30.1 | 29.34 |
D.Waller | LV | 29.8 | 28.92 |
D.Hopkins | ARI | 38.9 | 28.67 |
R.Gage | ATL | 29.5 | 27.51 |
D.Adams | GB | 39.7 | 27.23 |
A.Robinson | CHI | 14.7 | 26.48 |
A.Cooper | DAL | 26.1 | 25.25 |
M.Gesicki | MIA | 27.5 | 25.01 |
D.Johnson | PIT | 27.9 | 24.59 |
L.Thomas | WAS | 16.3 | 24.42 |
T.McLaurin | WAS | 30.6 | 24.30 |
D.Slayton | NYG | 30.0 | 24.16 |
A.Thielen | MIN | 32.5 | 23.97 |
Q.Cephus | DET | 12.7 | 23.48 |
O.Beckham | CLE | 19.1 | 23.46 |
T.Kelce | KC | 33.5 | 22.45 |
N.Harry | NE | 17.6 | 22.41 |
R.Anderson | CAR | 35.8 | 22.30 |
M.Williams | LAC | 11.3 | 22.12 |
A.Jones | GB | 17.8 | 22.03 |
E.Engram | NYG | 11.4 | 21.85 |
T.Lockett | SEA | 29.4 | 21.83 |
D.Jackson | PHI | 15.0 | 21.80 |
H.Henry | LAC | 21.1 | 21.58 |
J.Brown | BUF | 32.2 | 21.52 |
J.Jones | ATL | 23.6 | 21.48 |
D.Goedert | PHI | 25.1 | 21.04 |
K.Allen | LAC | 18.8 | 20.66 |
C.Lamb | DAL | 22.0 | 20.65 |
C.Beasley | BUF | 17.3 | 19.92 |
T.Hill | KC | 31.5 | 19.90 |
J.Jeudy | DEN | 15.8 | 19.80 |
Z.Ertz | PHI | 16.0 | 19.67 |
D.Parker | MIA | 20.5 | 18.89 |
P.Williams | MIA | 8.2 | 18.63 |
J.Smith | TEN | 34.0 | 18.56 |
A.Kamara | NO | 27.6 | 18.44 |
N.Fant | DEN | 30.3 | 18.18 |
M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 25.5 | 18.04 |
D.Robinson | KC | 7.8 | 18.00 |
B.Cooks | HOU | 15.0 | 17.98 |
M.Brown | BAL | 19.3 | 17.89 |
M.Evans | TB | 26.6 | 17.76 |
D.Metcalf | SEA | 34.7 | 17.64 |
M.Andrews | BAL | 23.7 | 17.61 |
J.Smith-Schuster | PIT | 30.2 | 17.45 |
T.Hilton | IND | 11.6 | 17.32 |
T.Boyd | CIN | 22.0 | 17.19 |
M.Jones | DET | 17.8 | 16.92 |
A.Humphries | TEN | 21.0 | 16.63 |
H.Hurst | ATL | 21.0 | 16.56 |
K.Cole | JAX | 28.0 | 16.53 |
D.Amendola | DET | 19.7 | 16.48 |
I.Ford | MIA | 13.4 | 16.27 |
J.Crowder | NYJ | 21.0 | 15.92 |
J.Cook | NO | 18.8 | 15.88 |
R.Woods | LA | 15.9 | 15.70 |
D.Schultz | DAL | 19.8 | 15.58 |
C.Davis | TEN | 24.7 | 15.45 |
K.Bourne | SF | 13.1 | 15.37 |
S.Watkins | KC | 19.3 | 15.07 |
C.Hogan | NYJ | 11.0 | 15.04 |
C.Carson | SEA | 30.6 | 14.27 |
T.Patrick | DEN | 8.3 | 14.19 |
T.Higbee | LA | 31.4 | 13.81 |
Z.Pascal | IND | 12.2 | 13.66 |
J.Reed | SF | 22.7 | 13.58 |
M.Gallup | DAL | 13.3 | 13.50 |
C.Herndon | NYJ | 7.7 | 13.43 |
C.Kirk | ARI | 7.7 | 13.39 |
A.Brown | TEN | 6.4 | 13.20 |
- The leader through two weeks is A.J. Green. He has gotten a ton of targets from rookie QB Joe Burrow. However, as many have pointed out, Green has looked terrible. I do not see better times ahead
- Any expectation is going to be conservative in nature. The step forward for Ridley is legitimate and with Julio Jones possibly missing time Ridley is now a WR1
- DJ Moore and Stefon Diggs both appear to be favorites of their new QBs. Both guys were mid round WRs who have been excellent through two games
- I was concerned about Julian Edelman’s value without Tom Brady but he still seems to be neat the top in terms of opportunity
- Russell Gage is soaking up targets for a Falcons team with a ton of shootout potential. He should be owned in all formats.
Another way of looking at this is the per target leaders. This week I will be looking at the top players with at least 8 targets. This should be a list of names to target in your leagues going forward.
xFP Per Target Leaders | |||
---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Targets | xFP Per Target |
M.Andrews | BAL | 9 | 1.96 |
Q.Cephus | DET | 13 | 1.81 |
D.Robinson | KC | 10 | 1.80 |
M.Williams | LAC | 13 | 1.70 |
N.Fant | DEN | 11 | 1.65 |
A.Brown | TEN | 8 | 1.65 |
H.Ruggs | LV | 8 | 1.64 |
V.Jefferson | LA | 8 | 1.63 |
J.Edelman | NE | 18 | 1.63 |
D.Slayton | NYG | 15 | 1.61 |
A.Green | CIN | 22 | 1.61 |
C.Carson | SEA | 9 | 1.59 |
J.Reagor | PHI | 8 | 1.58 |
D.Parker | MIA | 12 | 1.57 |
A.Jones | GB | 14 | 1.57 |
M.Gesicki | MIA | 16 | 1.56 |
A.Robinson | CHI | 17 | 1.56 |
P.Williams | MIA | 12 | 1.55 |
J.Smith | TEN | 12 | 1.55 |
E.Sanders | NO | 8 | 1.54 |
K.Bourne | SF | 10 | 1.54 |
T.Higbee | LA | 9 | 1.53 |
C.Beasley | BUF | 13 | 1.53 |
C.Ridley | ATL | 22 | 1.51 |
M.Brown | BAL | 12 | 1.49 |
O.Beckham | CLE | 16 | 1.47 |
E.Engram | NYG | 15 | 1.46 |
T.Smith | NO | 8 | 1.44 |
L.Thomas | WAS | 17 | 1.44 |
M.Alie-Cox | IND | 8 | 1.44 |
T.McLaurin | WAS | 17 | 1.43 |
T.Patrick | DEN | 10 | 1.42 |
A.Thielen | MIN | 17 | 1.41 |
Z.Ertz | PHI | 14 | 1.41 |
D.Moore | CAR | 22 | 1.39 |
J.Graham | CHI | 8 | 1.39 |
M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 13 | 1.39 |
S.Diggs | BUF | 22 | 1.39 |
C.Conley | JAX | 8 | 1.38 |
B.Cooks | HOU | 13 | 1.38 |
S.Miller | TB | 9 | 1.38 |
K.Cole | JAX | 12 | 1.38 |
C.Lamb | DAL | 15 | 1.38 |
A.Lazard | GB | 9 | 1.37 |
T.Lockett | SEA | 16 | 1.36 |
D.Jackson | PHI | 16 | 1.36 |
D.Adams | GB | 20 | 1.36 |
A.Miller | CHI | 9 | 1.36 |
J.Reed | SF | 10 | 1.36 |
M.Gallup | DAL | 10 | 1.35 |
H.Henry | LAC | 16 | 1.35 |
J.Brown | BUF | 16 | 1.34 |
J.Jones | ATL | 16 | 1.34 |
C.Kirk | ARI | 10 | 1.34 |
J.Cook | NO | 12 | 1.32 |
T.Boyd | CIN | 13 | 1.32 |
J.Jeudy | DEN | 15 | 1.32 |
R.Gage | ATL | 21 | 1.31 |
O.Howard | TB | 9 | 1.31 |
J.Landry | CLE | 9 | 1.30 |
A.Humphries | TEN | 13 | 1.28 |
P.Campbell | IND | 9 | 1.28 |
H.Hurst | ATL | 13 | 1.27 |
D.Byrd | NE | 9 | 1.27 |
M.Evans | TB | 14 | 1.27 |
R.Cobb | HOU | 9 | 1.27 |
D.Swift | DET | 10 | 1.27 |
D.Inman | WAS | 10 | 1.26 |
D.Metcalf | SEA | 14 | 1.26 |
S.Watkins | KC | 12 | 1.26 |
C.Hogan | NYJ | 12 | 1.25 |
J.Smith-Schuster | PIT | 14 | 1.25 |
N.Harry | NE | 18 | 1.25 |
D.Sample | CIN | 10 | 1.25 |
R.Anderson | CAR | 18 | 1.24 |
- Marc Andrew has a path to becoming the TE1 this season but not too far behind is Noah Fant. Those who beleived in Fant might be rewarded this season.
- I am still excited to see what Kenny Golladay looks like if this is the role for Cephus. Golladay could be the second half WR1
- The big game will come for Ruggs, do not sell too early
- Devante Parket stepped back into a massive role in Week 2. He is the clear top option there
Overall, we still do not know too much about players at this point in the season. However, this type of analysis can keep a guy on your roster despite struggles early. Do not give up as long as the opportunity is there. Best of luck for Week 3!
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