In real life, the All-Star Break provides players with the opportunity to rest, spend a few days with family away from the game, and recover from nagging injuries. Similarly, as fantasy players, this week provides us with the option of spending more time on other interests, getting caught up on non-baseball work, or getting a break from the phone/computer. But these four days also give us the option to start strategizing for the final leg of the fantasy season. Below are a few tips on how you can use this time to efficiently prepare for the home stretch. Putting some work in now can in save you from time wasted down the road.
- Assess Your Position in Relation to Your Opponents
Weekly Leagues: Look at how many playoff spots are available and where you stand in relation to your competitors. Write down a final record that you think will be sufficient to earn a playoff spot. Then take a look at your remaining schedule. How many games against playoff-caliber teams? How many against tanking teams? Plot out your path to the playoffs.
Now take a look at the overall standings in terms of categories and see where you stack up against your opponents. If there are glaring holes, you may consider sending out a few trade offers before games start up again. Your opponents should have more time to look at trade offers now than at any other point in the next few weeks (remember that the trade deadline is probably looming).
Take a close look at your opponents’ rosters. By the end of the season, you should be as familiar with the makeup of their teams as your own. If you find a weakness on a strong opponent’s team, consider how you can build that into your strength. For example, if their staff is heavily weighted towards SP’s, build a plan for stacking RP’s that will allow you to beat them in Saves, ERA and WHIP rather than trying to stream and beat them at their own game.
Finally, look through MLB team schedules during your league’s playoffs. If you feel that you are in good shape to lock up a playoff spot, consider adding some players to your bench that have strong matchups in September (SP’s who face weak lineups, hitters in Coors and Yankee Stadium, etc.).
Roto Leagues: Assess not only how many points you have in each category, but how close you are to those ahead of and behind you. Be realistic. It is tempting to focus on best-case scenarios, but it is equally important to consider how your opponents can catch you.
This analysis should heavily inform your lineup decisions moving forward. If you are chasing in ERA, be extra careful about using starters in maybe-situations. If you are chasing in AVG/OBP, don’t necessarily switch in bench bats when your starters aren’t playing; these last-minute decisions often hurt more than they help.
- Set Your Lineups
This may sound obvious, but everyone misses a few key starts at various points throughout the season by forgetting to set lineups for an early day game. Look one to two weeks ahead and put all of the probable pitchers in your lineup to avoid unnecessary mishaps. I’m trying to get in the habit of doing this once a week. Use your time to save yourself from headaches down the road.
- Know When to Throw in the Towel
If you play in multiple leagues like me, you may want to seriously consider doubling down on one or a few of them and letting the rest go. The All-Star Break offers us the chance to look at our teams with fresh eyes, and to soberly assess whether they have a realistic chance of earning championships. When determining whether or not a team is a legitimate contender, it helps to revisit league rules on payouts. Even if your team isn’t likely to win it all, you may still be able to take home earnings if you angle for second or third place. Just remember that, contrary to what others might say, there’s no shame in taking an L at this point in the season. Rather than investing 1-2 hours per week in a lost cause, you could be using that time towards pushing another team from 2nd to 1st by studying your opponents’ moves carefully. With fewer teams to focus on, you can take advantage of small mistakes that you wouldn’t have noticed if your attention was diverted to other lineups.
In keeper and dynasty leagues, this is a great time to shop veterans in search of younger, affordable players that can be useful to you next year. Your opponents are looking to add to their rosters in an effort to win this year, so they will be more likely to trade away valuable keepers at affordable costs.
- Deep Dive
Because there are no box scores to keep up with, you can use this week to listen to podcasts, read articles, and analyze statistics from the past few weeks that can help you make difficult decisions about your team. If you are considering trading for a player, look at their FanGraphs page and their Baseball Reference page. If you’re not already familiar, look at projections as well as statistics like SwingingStrike% and HR/FB rate to clue into where players may be heading moving forward. Then, go to MLB’s Baseball Savant and look at their advanced metrics. Where do they stand in terms of barrel rate compared to the rest of the league? For SPs, has their pitch mix changed over the course of the season? Could this change lead to improved results in the second half? This kind of work takes time, but once you complete it, you can be more confident in your assessment of that player’s value. Don’t forget to keep up with recent developments on your own team, too. You may be able to catch a player who is about to head into an extended slump and avoid adding those negative stats to your totals. Putting the work in now will get you ready for the trials and tribulations of the second half, so that you don’t have to panic after every bad outing and can trust in the validity of your player assessment.
Leave a Reply
Friends don't let friends talk to themselves.
You must be logged in to post a comment.