Over the past week, I participated in a slow auction mock draft hosted by Prospect 361 which included some of our own at FWFB, including Justin Mason and Nick Alatriste. It was a 15 team roto draft with regular 5 x 5 categories (average, runs, RBIs, home runs, steals, wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, and saves). My final roster ended up like this:
- OF Mookie Betts – $50
- OF Michael Brantley – $9
- OF Aaron Hicks – $11
- OF Kyle Schwarber – $6
- OF Max Kepler – $1
- 1B Joey Votto – $22
- 2B Adalberto Mondesi – $17
- SS Corey Seager – $10
- 3B Manny Machado – $34
- CI Jeff McNeil – $3
- MI Marcus Semien – $2
- C Tyler Flowers – $1
- C Willians Astudillo – $9
- UTL Ryan O-Hearn – $1
- SP Jacob deGrom – $29
- SP Mike Foltynewicz – $8
- SP Rick Porcello – $5
- RP Alex Colome – $6
- RP Shane Greene – $2
- P Alex Reyes – $6
- P Steven Matz – $1
- P Mychal Givens – $3
- P Zach Britton – $2
- BN Jimmy Nelson – $3
- BN Nick Kingham – $1
- BN Mike Soroka – $18
I am generally happy with the results. I was particularly thrilled with the infield I managed to assemble after spending big on Betts and deGrom on the first day. Seager went for a surprisingly low price compared to my expectations. While the hype for Mondesi is running high, and some would call this an overpay because of his poor plate skills, I found it to be slightly less than expected and worthy of taking a shot due to the rare power-speed combination that he offers.
Rather than focusing solely on the team I drafted, which won’t precisely reflect market prices come March, I want to turn to some general takeaways from the draft that should be relevant to players across all formats.
- deGrom is a good value play early in drafts. Nola and Snell went for the same price as deGrom in this draft ($29). Buehler and Cole went for just a few dollars fewer ($27), while Sale was $33 and Scherzer $32. In the FWFB 30 dynasty league – a different league context – deGrom was the fifth starting pitcher taken off the board. I think these results reflect a trend across fantasy baseball leagues, at least at this early point in draft season. deGrom is not receiving “full credit” for the historic season he put forth in 2018 (a 1.70 ERA over 217 innings with 269 strikeouts and underlying numbers that largely back up these results). Scherzer certainly has a longer track record and has historically been healthier than deGrom. But Jake has sneakily put together 190+ inning seasons in three of the last four. More importantly, I can’t look past the four year age gap between them: deGrom is entering his age 31 season, while Scherzer is entering his age 35 season. Previously unforeseen cliffs abound for pitchers of Scherzer’s age. While traditional bell curves of production don’t necessarily apply to extreme outliers, they can’t be completely ignored either. Meanwhile, Sale’s health concerns are recent and pressing, while deGrom’s shouldn’t play as large of a role in assessing his current value. In summary, if you are looking for a workhouse ace which you can set and forget, deGrom is a great bet and is currently not being priced as highly as he should be.
- Watch out for an RP drop-off in the late rounds. I whiffed on reliable closers like Yates and Leclerc in the mid-tier of closers and found myself in deep trouble late in the draft. I settled on Colome, Greene and Givens, each of which are risky plays at best and legitimate threats to my overall ERA and WHIP at worst. Each of these players offers save opportunities at an extremely low price. However, I would not feel comfortable with this group entering 2019 if I did not have a more stable piece headlining the bullpen. In this draft, I retrospectively wish that I had paid up for someone like Jansen or Treinen. These two can (and probably will) quickly enter into a price range that is difficult to stomach. But I expect that this year will follow the recent trend of a handful of elite closer names which stand out amidst an expanding pool of closers-by-committee. The days of only drafting SPs as a viable strategy for winning a league are quickly fading. Because some leagues are still adjusting to this fact, top- and mid-tier closers can offer you a significant source of advantage over your opponents.
- There are plenty of valuable SPs available in the late rounds. Once you have one or a few starters that you are comfortable with, don’t hesitate to wait until prices fall much later in the draft. I was surprised by the prices at which I was able to acquire Nelson and Porcello. There were many more starters that I was unable to acquire at the end of the draft simply because my roster had no more room for pitchers. Even if only half of your late-round SP picks pan out, you can develop a strong rotation this way and supplement it with quality relievers. While you patiently wait to dig for SP gold, you can load up on offensive talent that others are passing over as they attempt to fill rotation slots.
- Drafters tend to be conservative during the first few bids. I did not hesitate to push the pace during these first few nominations and was able to land Betts, deGrom and Machado for prices that I consider to be more than palatable. I would expect that those who drafted Trout, Judge, etc. felt the same. Your opponents could very well end up spending similar amounts for lesser players later in the draft as they attempt to fill their roster spots.
- Auction dollars have no real monetary value. There comes a point in every auction draft where somebody realizes that the dollars they have been hoarding are bits of data whose value is rapidly decreasing and will soon be worthless. In this draft, I paid $18 for Soroka, while Ross Stripling went for $43. You do not need to stash money away in hopes of sweeping up late-round talent; that talent goes in the late rounds for a reason. (This is no knock on Soroka/Stripling, but the overpaying here is comical.) The takeaway: don’t hesitate to pay up for your favorite players early on, even if it means going a little higher than you planned. There will always be valuable players going for $1-2 at the end of the draft, and you won’t need more than this saved up by the time you get there.
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