Welcome back for week 5 of Streams and Nightmares. We have some great pitchers getting 2 this week, but it drops off fast outside of the top 8 guys. With not a lot of great 2 start options, I’ll be likely to avoid many of them in favor of a better 1 start matchup.
My apologies, but with Randy and I both away this weekend, I have had to write this up early, so please double check the schedule before setting your lineups in case things change.
Pitchers are broken down into the following 4 groups. No Brainers, which is pretty self-explanatory. Lock and Load, who are must starts based on matchups and their expected total value for the week. Proceed with Caution are guys that, depending on the options I have available, I probably start in most 15 teamers, but iffy below that. Potential Nightmares are guys to avoid in mixed leagues. Streamers are guys with lower ownership levels that I am looking to add for this week. Their availability will be league size dependent.
No Brainers:
Justin Verlander @ MIN, @ LAA
Trevor Bauer @ MIA, vs SEA
Luis Castillo @NYM, vs SF
Patrick Corbin vs STL, @ PHI
Castillo and Corbin moving into the No Brainer category for me based on their performance this year.
Lock and Load:
Blake Snell @ KC, @ BAL (Coming off the IL, his last start was short and less than dominant, against a week KC lineup. I expect a bounce back with 2 favorable matchups)
German Marquez @ MIL, vs ARI (Has been pretty good at Coors, but not lights out and MIL might be the next toughest place to pitch right now. That said, I wouldn’t sit for either start)
Chris Paddack @ ATL, vs LAD (Tough matchups, but given his performance so far, I can’t sit for a 2 start week)
Zack Wheeler vs CIN, @ MIL (Last start against Philly, he looked like the dominant pitcher he became last year. Hope he can build off this against CIN and hold his own in MIL)
Proceed With Caution:
Mike Soroka vs SD, @ MIA (Soroka is looking like a keeper so far. He’s not pitching deep into games yet, but good matchups this week)
Frankie Montas @ BOS, @ PIT (Has been getting it done so far, but outside of his home park, I don’t really trust the stuff. Lack of K’s a big issue. Probably start though based off early results)
Brad Keller vs TB, @ DET (Not a guy to trust, but at home gets away with less than dominant stuff and the DET game isn’t too scary)
Jeff Samadzija vs LAD, @ CIN (Shark has been pretty good so far. LAD is tough, but he’s a must start at home and the CIN offence is yet to fire)
Eduardo Rodriguez vs OAK, @ CHW (Finally looked better last week. It’s a roll of the dice in good offensive parks, but there is upside)
Tanner Roark @NYM, vs SF (I don’t trust Roark in CIN, but SF at home and @ NYM is decent. Not a lot of upside here though and sure to hurt your WHIP)
Zach Davies vs COL, vs NYM (Getting the hook before he gets crushed is helping keep the ratios down, but unlikely to get you many wins or K’s)
Nick Margevicius @ ATL, vs LAD (Good results so far, but I don’t like these matchups at all)
Kyle Freeland @ MIL, vs ARI (At MIL and at home aren’t awesome and he’s coming off the IL. A lot to worry about, although he has more upside than most in this tier)
Julio Teheran vs SD, @ MIA (The K rate is nice and the matchups I like, but he’s not been doing anyone’s ratios any favors so far. Use caution, depending on your needs)
Adam Wainwright @ WAS, @ CHC (I don’t love using him, even less against 2 tough opponents on the road. Hasn’t been bad so far and always a chance of a W with the veteran)
Rick Porcello vs OAK, @ CHC (Slick Rick has been Rocky Rick so far. Looks like he’s improving, but still not likely to do your ratios too many favors. Always a chance at getting you W’s though)
Potential Nightmares:
Manny Banuelos vs BAL, vs BOS (Got through 4IP his first turn as an SP without damage. I wouldn’t expect much more, making your K & W upside very limited)
Michael Wacha @ WAS, @ CHC (I’m avoiding coming back off the IL this week)
Jake Odorizzi vs HOU, @ NYY (Maybe the 2 toughest teams in the AL. I don’t like these starts for Jake)
Michael Pineda vs HOU, @ NYY (Ditto)
Clay Buchholz @ LAA, @ TEX (I’m not using Bucky yet and at TEX scares me)
Andrew Cashner @ CWS, vs TB (No interest)
Jakob Junis vs TB, @ DET (At home and at DET is OK, but not been getting it done yet. Not worth it)
Jhoulys Chacin vs COL, @ NYM (Chacin goes though periods of disaster and dominance within a season. Avoid while he’s a disaster)
Anibal Sanchez vs STL, @ PHI (The old Anibal might be back. Can’t use until we see it turn around)
Ivan Nova vs BAL, vs BOS (No upside here and no interest rocking an 8.42 ERA with a 1.753 WHIP)
Jason Vargas vs CIN, @ MIL (Totally looks like some guy off the street. I don’t believe he’s a real ball player)
Streamers I Want:
Vince Velasquez vs DET (Fantrax 70%, CBS 53%, ESPN 13.6%) – Vince is a K machine and so far, is managing to avoid getting rocked this year. Roll out vs DET if available.
Merrill Kelly vs NYY (Fantrax 53%, CBS 25%, ESPN 8.3%) – Getting results. Yes it’s the Yankees, but they are still hurt and the start is at home with NL lineups.
Pablo Lopez vs ATL (Fantrax 48%, CBS 35%, ESPN 4.1%) – Good K rate and home park offers protection)
Griffin Canning vs TOR (Fantrax 32%, 14%, ESPN 1.1%) – Canning is LAA top pitching prospect and has carved his way through the minors to earn his call up. At home against the Jays is a good first start. I’d grab him for this one, because if he shoves, you may not get another chance.
Daniel Norris vs KC (Fantrax 19%, CBS 6%, ESPN 3.2%) – I know, it’s Daniel Norris. The last 2 starts have been good though and a nice matchup here. Good deep league play.
Good luck everyone!
-Matchups and ownership percentages are accurate as of 4/27.
Leave a Reply
Friends don't let friends talk to themselves.
You must be logged in to post a comment.