Well, that was anti-climatic, right? Just as the fantasy hockey playoffs started to get rolling, everything stopped. There were a ton of losers, but nobody really won. How lame.
Instead of dwelling on the past, let us use it for what it’s worth. I’m starting a retrospective series here at Friends With Fantasy Benefits that, if nothing else, gets us all to look a little harder at what happened in during the 2019-20 Hockey Season. To get the retrospective started off right, I’m going to do a series of posts highlighting category risers and fallers.
First up Goals!
2019-2020 Top-75 Goals "Risers"
Player | 18-19 | 19-20 | Difference | Pace | Pace Difference | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | J.T. Miller | 13 | 27 | 14 | 33 | 20 |
2 | Noel Acciari | 6 | 20 | 14 | 24 | 18 |
3 | James Neal | 7 | 19 | 12 | 23 | 16 |
4 | Mika Zibanejad | 30 | 41 | 11 | 50 | 20 |
5 | Tyler Toffoli | 13 | 24 | 11 | 29 | 16 |
6 | Jaden Schwartz | 11 | 22 | 11 | 27 | 16 |
7 | Tony DeAngelo | 4 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
8 | Derek Grant | 4 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
9 | David Pastrnak | 38 | 48 | 10 | 59 | 21 |
10 | Auston Matthews | 37 | 47 | 10 | 57 | 20 |
11 | Max Pacioretty | 22 | 32 | 10 | 39 | 17 |
12 | Kevin Fiala | 13 | 23 | 10 | 28 | 15 |
13 | Roope Hintz | 9 | 19 | 10 | 23 | 14 |
14 | Bryan Rust | 18 | 27 | 9 | 33 | 15 |
15 | Conor Garland | 13 | 22 | 9 | 27 | 14 |
16 | Zach Werenski | 11 | 20 | 9 | 24 | 13 |
17 | Ondrej Palat | 8 | 17 | 9 | 21 | 13 |
18 | Andrew Mangiapane | 8 | 17 | 9 | 21 | 13 |
19 | Luke Kunin | 6 | 15 | 9 | 18 | 12 |
20 | Sebastian Aho | 30 | 38 | 8 | 46 | 16 |
21 | Jack Eichel | 28 | 36 | 8 | 44 | 16 |
22 | Reilly Smith | 19 | 27 | 8 | 33 | 14 |
23 | Adam Henrique | 18 | 26 | 8 | 32 | 14 |
24 | Alex Killorn | 18 | 26 | 8 | 32 | 14 |
25 | Brayden Schenn | 17 | 25 | 8 | 30 | 13 |
26 | Andre Burakovsky | 12 | 20 | 8 | 24 | 12 |
27 | Jesper Bratt | 8 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 12 |
28 | Zach Sanford | 8 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 12 |
29 | Jakob Chychrun | 5 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 10 |
30 | Vladislav Namestnikov | 11 | 17 | 6 | 21 | 10 |
31 | Ivan Provorov | 7 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 9 |
32 | Taylor Hall | 11 | 16 | 5 | 20 | 9 |
33 | Calle Jarnkrok | 10 | 15 | 5 | 18 | 8 |
34 | Kyle Connor | 34 | 38 | 4 | 46 | 12 |
35 | Artemi Panarin | 28 | 32 | 4 | 39 | 11 |
36 | Evgeni Malkin | 21 | 25 | 4 | 30 | 9 |
37 | Nikolaj Ehlers | 21 | 25 | 4 | 30 | 9 |
38 | Andrei Svechnikov | 20 | 24 | 4 | 29 | 9 |
39 | Kevin Hayes | 19 | 23 | 4 | 28 | 9 |
40 | Anthony Duclair | 19 | 23 | 4 | 28 | 9 |
41 | Paul Stastny | 13 | 17 | 4 | 21 | 8 |
42 | Jeff Carter | 13 | 17 | 4 | 21 | 8 |
43 | Charlie Coyle | 12 | 16 | 4 | 20 | 8 |
44 | Tyler Ennis | 12 | 16 | 4 | 20 | 8 |
45 | Lawson Crouse | 11 | 15 | 4 | 18 | 7 |
46 | Ryan Donato | 10 | 14 | 4 | 17 | 7 |
47 | Tanner Pearson | 18 | 21 | 3 | 26 | 8 |
48 | Nazem Kadri | 16 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 7 |
49 | Jake Virtanen | 15 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 7 |
50 | Clayton Keller | 14 | 17 | 3 | 21 | 7 |
51 | Alex Pietrangelo | 13 | 16 | 3 | 20 | 7 |
52 | Lars Eller | 13 | 16 | 3 | 20 | 7 |
53 | Joel Armia | 13 | 16 | 3 | 20 | 7 |
54 | Mats Zuccarello | 12 | 15 | 3 | 18 | 6 |
55 | Filip Chytil | 11 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
56 | Warren Foegele | 10 | 13 | 3 | 16 | 6 |
57 | Elias Lindholm | 27 | 29 | 2 | 35 | 8 |
58 | David Perron | 23 | 25 | 2 | 30 | 7 |
59 | Blake Wheeler | 20 | 22 | 2 | 27 | 7 |
60 | Alex Iafallo | 15 | 17 | 2 | 21 | 6 |
61 | Joonas Donskoi | 14 | 16 | 2 | 20 | 6 |
62 | John Carlson | 13 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 5 |
63 | Artturi Lehkonen | 11 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 5 |
64 | T.J. Oshie | 25 | 26 | 1 | 32 | 7 |
65 | Brock Nelson | 25 | 26 | 1 | 32 | 7 |
66 | Jakub Vrana | 24 | 25 | 1 | 30 | 6 |
67 | Mathew Barzal | 18 | 19 | 1 | 23 | 5 |
68 | Nick Bonino | 17 | 18 | 1 | 22 | 5 |
69 | Mikael Granlund | 16 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 5 |
70 | Roman Josi | 15 | 16 | 1 | 20 | 5 |
71 | Shea Weber | 14 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 4 |
72 | Phillip Danault | 12 | 13 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
73 | Shea Theodore | 12 | 13 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
74 | Scott Laughton | 12 | 13 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
75 | Travis Konecny | 24 | 24 | 0 | 29 | 5 |
So it’s important to keep in mind that everyone on this list played at least 12 fewer games than in 2019-20 than 2018-19. With that being the case, I thought it was important to pace out where players would have been had they played a full 82 game season. Yes, that negates any games lost due to injury, but it gives a general idea of what could have been.
5 Takeaways
J.T. Miller
Leading the list is a player who will likely end up being one of the biggest movers in ADP from last draft season to this one. No surprise. He did everything you needed him to do on your fantasy team and you probably got him as one of your last forwards or even off of the waiver wire. The move to Vancouver proved to be just what he needed to take the next step. In terms of deployment, Miller started seeing 19:00+ minutes TOI almost immediately and was given a shot on the first PP unit that he didn’t give up the entire season. There is no reason to believe that changes going forward considering the Canucks power play was ranked 4th in the league. In terms of his underlying stats, most things seem pretty repeatable. The only concern is that his shooting percentage of 16.36 is a little high, but it’s not astronomical. Same-story with his On-Ice shooting percentage. However, he doesn’t shoot a whole lot so if he goes through a real dry spell, that could tank his goal totals. The Canucks are a talented team though and his supporting cast should still be able to get him points.
Max Pacioretty
It’s safe to say that Pacioretty’s first season in Vegas did not go as planned. No matter though as he made up for it in spades this year. His second season for the Golden Knights produced 32 goals on 307 (!) shots in 71 games. Had he finished the season and stayed healthy, 40 goals would not have been out of the question. Not bad for a 31-year old reclamation project. He also hits a fair amount which is good in a Yahoo! standard categories league or any league that counts the category. Nothing in his profile suggests his output will crater next season, other than the fact that we’ve seen him just kind of tank over a 60+ game sample twice (see 2017-2019). However, he’s settled into his new home and he looks comfortable. It will be interesting to see where he ends up in ADP this draft season, but if it’s anywhere outside of the first 4 rounds, it will be a steal.
Andrew Mangiapane
Mangiapane scored 9 more goals than he did last season – that’s pretty good! He also played in 24 more games this season than he did last year so his numbers are a little skewed. But he is still a player worth talking about. The 24-year-old winger was able to carve out a spot opposite Matthew Tkachuk at 5v5 and between 16:00-19:00 TOI near the end of the season. Over the 18 games from February 1st until March 11th, Mangiapane had 7 goals on 5.6 expected goals and 15 total points. Power play points might still be hard to come by so that keeps his ceiling pretty low at this point, but an injury in the Flames top-6 could change that quickly. He’s not a world-beater, but I will definitely have my eye on Mangiapane next season.
Alex Killorn
Not all of the names on this list are to be trusted. Case in point – Alex Killorn. Sure, he scored 8 more times this season than last in 14 fewer games. At one point, he was even on a point-per-game pace. But so much regarding production is tied to deployment. During his hot streak, he was playing on a 5v5 line with Anthony Cirelli and Steven Stamkos, as well as the first PP unit. Then the Bolts wised up and put Stamkos back with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point and that was the end of Killorn’s hot streak. He was able to bank enough points for a career-high, however, so good for him! But, his shooting percentage was unsustainably high for the season at cool 20.00 percent, he scored somewhere between 8-11 goals above expected, depending on which model you go with, and his IPP was the highest it’s been since 14-15. If he stays on the Lightning through the summer, he’s a guy to keep an eye on if an injury pops up in the top-6. Other than that, let him stay on the wire.
Travis Konecny
Finally, let us discuss the “Mr. Irrelavant” of this list. Travis Konecny had a great season for the Orange and Black scoring the same amount of goals as last year in fewer games. The 23-year-old still doesn’t seem to have as much trust from his coach as a nearly point-per-game player might have elsewhere, as he didn’t crack 17:00 TOI all that often. With some of the other Flyers stars getting older, this could change next season. There are some other red flags in Konecny’s underlying numbers, however. First, he doesn’t shoot that much – just over two shots a game. Paired with the fact that his shooting percentage was a career-high 17.02, I would project some regression in his goal total for next year unless he can up his shot rate. Also, his IPP is among the highest in the league at 80.26. There’s only one place for that number to go and it ain’t up. The hope is, if Konecny gets more TOI, maybe the IPP levels out a bit and he still gets points playing with other talented players.
That’s it for now. There are other nuggets to be uncovered here but instead of me yammering on about things I found, let this list serve as a jumping-off point for yourself. Every player’s situation is different and each one deserves at least a little closer look.
Tune in next week when the topic will be Top-75 Goals Fallers.
All stats provided by evolving-hockey.com, naturalstattric.com, and moneypuck.com.
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