Several weeks back I wrote a piece that looked at six rookie hitters and their projections using my prospect value model. They ranged from elite (Dylan Carlson) to below average (Evan White). I had originally intended to look at five more hitters who have yet to debut, but I think there is more value in evaluating some fringe types. These are guys who may not currently project as starters but are potentially one injury away from relevance in fantasy leagues or they could be competing for a starting role after changing teams or positions. They tend to be players we want to take in the reserve rounds of drafts or even guys to watch on waivers. Yet regardless these guys should find themselves somewhat fantasy-relevant over the course of the season.
Luis Urias
The first guy on this list is easily one of my favorites. Luis Urias was supposed to form a middle infield tandem with Fernando Tatis that would lead the Padres to the World Series. However, that did not pan out and he was traded for Trent Grisham this offseason. Urias has struggled mightily in his limited MLB looks but absolutely dominated AAA last season. He comes in at 11th in my overall prospect rankings buoyed by a top ten ranking in the pure valuation. He was slated to open the season as Milwaukee’s starting shortstop but an injury to his wrist may cause his season to start late. Urias is an interesting case for fantasy as you can see by his outcome chart below.
Urias has a fairly high floor but that floor comes in a bit behind the average MLB fantasy contributor. However, he does have a range of high probability, high impact outcomes. The top comps are a mix of bench to late-round draft pick types (Jedd Gyorko, Lucas Duda) with the occasional star mixed in (Anthony Rizzo). The juiced AAA ball will be a massive factor in if Urias can hit this projection as power has always been the question mark. I think he takes the starting job when he is back healthy and when he does he is someone I want on my team. I have bought a few shares already.
Kevin Cron
Another player who had mashed at the AAA level, Cron is a bit older than your typical prospect. This makes him a great addition to a list like this. Cron had a decent debut in 2019 but did not run away with a job like many had hoped he would. Going into this season his playing time is a bit murky but he needs struggles/injuries from Christian Walker and/or Jake Lamb. Walker is a similar late-career breakout type and Lamb has never been able to stay healthy.
As you can see, Cron has a similar chart to Urias. The floor is high but that solely means its likely he makes an MLB debut and reaches 250 PAs. For Cron types, the player comps make sense. He is a power hitter who does not add much else in terms of base-stealing ability. Sometimes these turn into Matt Olsen or Anthony Rizzo, or sometimes they turn into a Jack Cust. Both types have fantasy relevance and should be owned in all leagues. If Cron can find his way to regular at-bats he is a perfect late-season CI option. He should provide plenty of pop and there’s a non-zero change he helps with average as well.
Josh VanMeter
Unfortunately, VanMeter is pretty far from fantasy relevance. While he is likely beginning the season as a bench bat for the Reds, he needs a ton of things to go right for him to get a chance. However, if he does get a chance this could a difference-maker in fantasy leagues. VanMeter’s top comps include Mitch Hanger, Kris Bryant, Nelson Cruz, and Joc Pederson. Simply put the dude mashed at AAA last season. He showed a nice power-speed combo in the around 100 games he played in 2019 and if he could find a full complement of at-bats could push for 20/15. As you can see below the outcomes chart loves him and sees a real possibility of high-end fantasy output.
Jaylin Davis
The last guy I want to highlight is the Giants’ Outfielder Jaylin Davis. Davis comes in much lower than the first three names – towards the back end of the top 100 – but has an interesting set of skills. There is a ton of pop in his bat and a little speed to go with it. Across three levels for two different organizations last season, Davis hit 36 homers and chipped in 11 steals. He mashed everywhere he went outside of a brief cameo with the big club. Right now he seems ticketed for a platoon role but for a team struggling for OF production, Davis could get a chance to shine early on. The comparable players are Chris Davis. Nelson Cruz, and J.D. Davis among others. If the power he showed in the minors is for real he could be a player who reached 30 plus homers a season while not being a complete zero in steals. This is the type of player who you want to jump on late in draft and hold leagues or you want to be active on early on waivers if he is getting regular playing time.
Each of these players has a different skill set and different path to playing time and relevance. For each one there are reasons to invest and believe and many others on why they are best left for someone else. Urias, in my opinion, has the best chance for at-bats but the least upside. Van Meter and Davis could have league changing upside late in drafts or even on the waiver wire but their path to playing time is not that clear. These are just a few of the names that are interesting and I have started to pay more attention to due to my prospect model. I will be updating it throughout the season with interesting pop-up players and waiver adds.
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