While the top of the market has drawn the lion’s share of the gossip, there has been a flurry of deals for mid-rotation starters on multi year deals ranging from $10M to $20M on an annual basis. Most of these names are fairly familiar to even casual fans as each segues from seven years of servitude to forays, the first for some, in free agency. Each has his strengths, and of course, weaknesses that keep these guys from chasing the years and dollars spent on the elites. Let’s dig into each to see what those ends of the spectrum look like starting with a breakdown of their performance since 2018:
Zach Eflin – 3/$40M Tampa Bay Rays
Topping the board we get ex-Philadelphia Phillies righty Zach Eflin. Despite being middle of the pack in batters faced he pushes higher when focusing on opposite-handed lefties. With good cause, as Eflin shows a pronounced platoon split that sees below average performance against lefties, but is exaggerated by how excellent he has been against righties. Last year was no exception with the general theme being more walks, fewer strikeouts and harder contact. Those balls in play have been a little harder than average, and again we see strong success nullifying damage on contact. Missed time has held Eflin back from capitalizing on oft-good performance, which is an area of pitching Tampa Bay has shown no better control than anybody else, but this is a great landing spot for any arm.
The strikeout rate has come down to average from 2020, though performance has mostly continued to oscillate around the mean with a great run more recently than a hellacious one. The walk rate has also come up a touch, though we saw above that it’s mostly the lefties, and the walk isn’t the worst outcome given his wider split. Eflin has been able to maintain fine results by doing a much better job of managing contact with expected production on contact generally better than average. He’s doing a better job of avoiding previously demonstrated exit velocity spikes, and I believe the launch angle meanders point to a deep arsenal that he will need to optimize on a start-to-start basis. Seeing the inversion from higher strikeout/harder contact brings hope that he can keep the contact gains while re-incorporating the strikeouts, but the bigger question is how well he holds up on the bump after a laundry list of knee issues.
Tyler Anderson 3/$39M Los Angeles Angels
Another pitcher with a history of knee issues, Tyler Anderson, saw his 2019 season derailed by this malady, and was a shell of himself during the pandemic season. Beyond those two years we see 2018 as quite strong, the bounceback in 2021, and finding another level or two in this past season. These past two have seen him excel at limiting the walk, and this prowess extends across both hands. The traditional split isn’t particularly wide over the term, and that average probably serves as a solid barometer of what to expect in the likely event he takes a step back from the career season in 2022. Strikeouts come in a little below average, but he makes up for it by burying contact. This aspect has wavered, but he can still be an above average performer if things revert to his still good longer term trends.
The strikeout rate tends to show some slough over the course of a season that, perhaps, hints at fatigue taking just enough off his pedestrian fastball to lose the separation from his excellent change up. The walk rate ran a little hotter over much of this past year, but spent similar time at lower, more customary, levels. This past year saw actual results show up a bit better at times after tough stretches in the past. We can infer this as extra base, and especially, home run production that might be more or less deserved, but quite damaging regardless. The more obvious takeaway is how much this past season stands out with only brief stretches bumping average and often persisting for long bouts in better places below. In the past he has put the ball in the air a ton with this last season working it’s way back on that path after living lower earlier. Exit velocity started out in line with past higher points before a dramatic change about a third of the way into the season that led to very soft contact that regressed over the course of the season, but in fits and starts that indicate some games he would get hit hard, but usually figure it out a start or two later. This is reflected well in his expected wOBA that shows outstanding nullification, but also extreme volatility. The more the ball is in the air the more the park is going to come into effect, as well.
Chris Bassitt ?/$? Free Agent
One of two pitchers profiled who has yet to sign, Chris Bassitt has a long track record as a good enough pitcher who only overwhelms the opposition on rare occasions. This past season saw his heaviest workload, but also lesser performance mostly owed to harder contact that showed up more on the expected side than in actual results. The currently ex-Met typically strikes out a good amount of lefties with that rate pushing to a tick below average against same-handed righties. Despite the better strikeout rate he has shown a traditional split. The strikeouts against lefties have come with a few more walks and average contact, while righties have typically been neutered quite well. This balance has paid off as nobody on the list has faced more lefties.
The strikeouts fell off noticeably over the course of last year after playing in a very sexy area for a long run prior with walk typically higher. We see the strong early performance last year that rivaled all but his very best prior stretches, but the early tight fit between perspectives degraded over the course of the season leading to a widening gap. Actual performance still stayed more or less better than average, but Total wOBA saw him giving up harsher contact as the season wore on. This shows up pretty well in the xwOBAcon chart below that shows end of season ranges rivaling some of his previous worst runs after a solid start. We also see batters becoming much more pull-heavy, which likely speaks to a softening fastball they were better able to catch up to. He typically does a good job of limiting exit velocity, but with fewer dramatic spikes upward, though he hasn’t exorcised them completely and the end of the season was a longish run of meh.
Nathan Eovaldi ?/$? Free Agent
The other pitcher that is yet to sign, Nathan Eovaldi brings a bulldog mentality to the bump that translates into good strikeout rates, great walk avoidance and challenging hitters, which plays better when healthy. Something he has struggled with, at times. When right, like in 2021, you see a high workload horse who keeps his contact around average, while owning the plate. When hurt, like last year and in 2019, we see the milk turn sour. This presents an element of risk that isn’t far off from most of the guys on this list, but does hold him back from being compensated like his best self should. Over the term we see a bit of a reverse split, which is something that has persisted each of these past three seasons. Part of this is driven by his slightly better strikeout rate against lefties, but more so by his mentality of not giving in to batters whom know they are going to get something to hit when ahead and in three-ball counts.
That persistently low walk rate stands out starkly, and when the strikeout rate is cooking it leads to phenomenal discipline gaps in his favor. When that gap closes it becomes harder to outwork the inevitable contact. The slide last year seems to coincide with back and shoulder issues that hampered him. Results have mostly been average or better and even showed a deep dig last year, though much of the surrounding area was some of his worst performance in the sample. We see a bit of overperformance this year as actual results ran better than expected, but in the past this had gone both ways. Your AC/DCs, if you will. Laterally, we see batters shooting the middle and working oppo more, which again speaks to sitting back on the fastball, but as his health degraded last year we see much more pull. His exit velocity was also consistently higher than average after working lower outside of some spikes prior. Curiously, we see a deep jag toward the end of the season when he not only pounded down the exit velocity, but also got batters to pound the ball into the dirt more often. Possibly a rush of cortisone-aided strong performance, but also a nod to what he can do when things are right.
Andrew Heaney 2/$25M Texas Rangers
The shortest deal on our radar, Andrew Heaney has all sorts of opt outs that could make this deal shorter or more lucrative or both, but changing the terms will require him being on the bump for something approaching a regular workload. The step back in 2021 is glaring, but we see most years he has been an above average starter capable of one to two xWAR despite the paucity of innings. Always a good getter of punchouts, he took things to a new level last year with a seasonlong strikeout rate cresting 35%. He needed every bit of it as the contact concerns from a year prior bled into 2022 making balls in play more of a thrillride than fans would like. It was his second straight year of soft performance against lefties, which has traditionally been his strength. This was mostly driven by harsh contact that belies past usefulness, but on the flipside this was his best year against righties. Dodger magic involves optimizing the repertoire, and in Heaney’s case that seemed to give him some reverse split driven by the exceptional strikeout rate. Contact throughout his career has manifested more damaging than expected, likely owed to the plethora of homers yielded, and last year was no exception.
While the walk rate looked right as rain, we see how he elevated an already strong strikeout rate to biblical proportions. The gassed up strikeout rate didn’t help him avoid worse than average performance for much of last year, and acted as a continuation of prior ugliness. The cost for all the sit downs is all the balls he puts in the air, and often at harder than average velocity. A volatile combination just waiting to combust. The brief stints when xwOBAcon comes in better than average allows him to look like a revelation when paired with the strikeout rate, but too often it has been unplayable. Adding in that he seems to deal with injury every year it is easy to get pessimistic, but that is why the deal is so complicated. There is a big time strikeout guy that is in there and folks will continue to convince themselves that the best runs are who he can be all the time with just the right tweak. Maybe this is the year, but 2021 is likely as good as it gets so enjoy the good times and have a plan for the bad.
Jameson Taillon 4/$68M Chicago Cubs
Despite dealing with his own patchy health record, former Pirate and Yankee, Jameson Taillon, was able to secure a four-year deal with the rebuilding Chicago Cubs. He timed his second Tommy John recovery reasonably well as he simply skipped the mess that was the 2o20 shortened season. It was a while ago at this point, but 2018 stands out as very strong and he has mostly been average over the past two seasons since returning. Strikeouts are typically around average, and come alongside a strong walk rate. Production on contact is a little better than average, and usually doesn’t stray too far away in either direction. These past two seasons have seen him hit harder than average by lefties leading to a wider split than term numbers suggest, though he has remained fairly strong against righties hardly walking any and doing a better job of corralling the contact. If Taillon can continue to be a perfectly cromulent pitcher with enough volume like 2022 then this is a fine bet, but the upside is limited, and the risk of injury might have the team giving him a breather from time to time.
Surprisingly, Taillon is quite consistent with his strikeout percentage over the past two seasons as he mostly floats around the average trading the occasional dip below for longer runs above. Multiple runs show him capable of reaching 25% strikeout rates, albeit briefly, and we do have him eclipsing 30% upon arriving in New York, but he was also giving up a ton of production so I don’t think it’s a place he will see again. He was walking more then, too, but saw 2022 typically subsist lower outside of a mid-season spike he quelled quickly. We see how poor the production was out of the gate, but Taillon was able to get on track in 2021, while this past year featured a brilliant start that got ugly and then more or less managed from there. About a month into the season we see an outstanding run where good expectations were bettered by brilliant actual results then an immediate flip in the other direction at similar impact. Very curious. He looks to have amped up his cutter usage last yea at the expense of some curveballs with some initial success, though batters caught onto the gambit, punished him accordingly, and he was forced to back off. Ability to alter the arsenal is nice to see, and might come in hand at a park where the wind has significant control of outcomes. Batters are mostly looking to pull the ball, and when done at both high launch angle and high exit velocity you might need to cover your eyes. However, this past season had a long stretch of him mostly showing reduced exit velocity before losing the grip over the last third of the season. Production on contact improved slightly over the course of the season, but nothing like the deep troughs he ran in the year prior following the rough start. With Chicago unlikely to play for much next year it would behoove the team to shorten outings to 80 or 90 pitches with hopes it will help him stay fresh later into the year, and aid him in still being on his feet when this deal expires.
José Quintana 2/$26M New York Mets
Facing a bit of an exodus in their starting corps, the New York Mets determined the 12th and 13th seasons for José Quintana were worth the price of admission. Hard to fault them as it’s a similar deal as Andrew Heaney without the chance to balloon and on the lower end of this group for both years and dollars per year. The chance for solid ROI is not determined solely by the denominator as we can see some goodness around the mostly disastrous pandemic years. Yes, he was exceptional on a rate basis in 2020, but Quintana only face 41 batters, and while that bulked out to nearly 300 in 2021 we can also see that he was below replacement level due to absurdly hard contact that overwhelmed his strikeout renaissance. Throughout his career he has been downright filthy to same-handed lefties, while being mostly serviceable with righties. Last year clearly stands out from the pack as he matched the heavier workload of years ago, while providing the strong results only hinted at in 2020. New York will need to manage his matchups against righties, especially in leverage, but he doesn’t seem all that different from Taillon as an average walk, strikeout, contact yielded guy. At the least, the disastrous 2021 seems like an outlier. Quintana seems well positioned to be a back of rotation arm who can just go out and get his work in and be at his best when facing predominantly lefty lineups.
Coming on the heels of steady decline, it is interesting how José saw his strikeout rate climb back upward following his trade to St. Louis last year. The walk rate falling off and seeing how dramatically his performance improved should have Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner diagnosing what, exactly, went on there to goose such outstanding results. If it’s in the tank for 2023 then Quintana will be a much more useful piece. We see strong runs before including a good chunk of the past two years, but we also see tough stretches in between that speak to injury or fatigue making him a lesser version of himself. In this upcoming age-34 season it seems silly to think he won’t continue to deal with this stuff leaving the team vexed with either shutting him down until he’s right or letting him work through it with likely poor results. Curiously, the take off to close the season seems to coincide with a jump in launch angle after hundreds of balls in play mostly being held down. We also see his exit velocity doing curious things to close out the year with an abyss following the trade then a dramatic jump upward to close. Batters became more likely to shoot the middle and oppo last year, though we see an interruption toward the end where they got real pull happy before moving along as if nothing happened. His xwOBAcon shows him thriving when batters are unable to pull the ball with regularity, and we mostly see improving results on that contact as time has moved along. Old, but not ancient, oft-good, but rarely great, occasionally awful, José Quintana is not stepping into a massive role, should mostly be able to fly under the radar, and as such seems like a solid low cost option that many will gloss over.
Taijuan Walker 4/$72M Philadelphia Phillies
Righty Taijuan Walker comes in as the lowest rated pitcher in this view, but somehow got the most money of those who have already signed. He’ll walk lefties a bit more often, but strikeouts hang around the average diminishing little acoss hands. This leaves him as yet another starter who walks and strikes out batters around league average. Like so many others it comes down to the contact, and that’s where we see Taijuan diverge quite a bit from expectations, which sees lefties veritably teeing off and righties a little worse than average. Actual results, however, have continuously outstripped those expectations. Against righties, he can be an average sort of pitcher, while lefties he’s more midway between average and replacement. If the ball continues to die better than expected he can continue to be seen as a useful commodity over a decent amount of volume, but if it catches up to him you’re looking at some serious combustion.
The past three seasons have seen Walker all over the place in his strikeout and walk trends with occasional pops of excellence for both. There’s also plenty of malaise where both rates are fairly pedestrian and put more onus on his ability to deflect damage on contact. Performance has shown similar spikes into the absurd with a couple of patches where he looks hard to start, but more often showing plenty of usefulness if not downright goodness. We can see how actual results have shown up better than expectations both in 2020 and earlier this past year, and for what it’s worth he closed on a solid note. Walker does a pretty good job of not letting flyballs get out of control, though we see that being an obstacle in the second half of last year, and that becomes a problem when batters show a greater propensity to pull the ball. This is further compounded by the high exit velocity that has been a hallmark of these three seasons, and shows how the utterly terrible stretches can occur. Spikes in production on balls in play confirm the downside risk, but fixating on those obscures that around the blow ups he has had good stretches of limiting the damage. Pairing that with the strikeouts shows him to be an effective starter, but buyer beware as the next tank could be around the corner at any time. Injury stints the past two years have been brief, but he is also starting to exit the nexus of his Tommy John honeymoon period increase
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