Baseball isn’t played in the box scores and on the stat sheets. Yes, that is where the results get tabulated, and how performances are measured and understood, but there is more to it than that. Statistics help tell the story of what happened on the field and provide a record of the past. But there is more to it than that.
Everyone, from players, teams, general managers, and fantasy owners, are measured by statistics, but that is the past. If you need to look forward, statistics are just one part of the puzzle. You need to not only understand how the numbers you are looking are computed, but why they matter, and how they were earned. We also need to trust our eyes, as you can’t simply evaluate a player by looking at numbers; they just tell part of the story.
With that being said, each week we will take a look at three statistics from a fantasy perspective and what they mean for the player in question:
9.3% – Ketel Marte’s 2018 Walk Rate
At 25 years old, Ketel Marte is still young enough that he is not a finished product, and some of his potential is yet to be realized. Now, it is also very possible that the Marte we saw last season is the player he will be for the duration of his career, and based on his price, there isn’t anything exactly wrong with that.
Last season, Marte was a useful middle infielder, with dual eligibility, who hit .260 with 14 home runs with 59 RBI and scored 68 runs. I’m not expecting to see much variance in Marte’s batting average this season, but there is an outside chance he gets to 20 home runs. Now, I know, the Statcast metrics do say otherwise as Marte’s barrel rate and launch angle were below average last season, but he does have some power. And there is no reason why his launch angle could improve this season. After all, Marte’s ISO did improve from .135 to .177 last season.
What will hold Marte back though, his the fact that every other ball he put in play last season did end up on the ground. At the same time though, Marte’s speed does work in his favor in this regard.
So then why, did Marte still just six bases last season? He has the speed to steal more, but it simply has yet to translate into actual results. But as you fill out the back end of your roster, Marte is a player you should be keeping in mind, as although he is currently listed as the sixth hitter for Arizona, his 9.3% walk rate compared to just a 13.6% strikeout rate, would look nice at the top of the order.
And now, following Steven Souza’s season ending injury, Marte will be spending the majority of his time in center field, which means even more eligibility.
.333 – Kole Calhoun’s Spring Batting Average
Last season was just a disaster for Kole Calhoun, as he struggled to the tune of a .208 batting average. Now, hitting for average was never a distinctive skill set for the outfielder, a career average of .252, but this was a true liability. The easy answer we can point to, is that Calhoun’s BABIP last season was .241 as compared to a career mark of .293.
From a power perspective though, Calhoun was his normal, reliable self with 19 home runs, although his RBI (57) and Runs (71), did dip slightly. While those struggles could very easily cause the outfielder to have slipped in drafts this spring, or even go un-drafted, we shouldn’t be ignoring Calhoun.
He is a dependable option who is batting lead-off, with Mike Trout behind him as protection nonetheless, that will be receiving regular playing time. And with all of the injuries and platooning we can expect, and in fact are already experiencing, that can’t be understated.
20 – Spring Training Strikeouts for Michael Pineda
After missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery, Michael Pineda should not be forgotten about for the 2019 season. Now, the right-hander is still inconsistent, and it won’t be a completely smooth return, but there will be notable moments from Pineda this season.
The fact that Pineda pitches in the AL Central, easily the weakest division in baseball, also works in his favor for this season. And so far this spring, Pineda has looked pretty good as he closed out the exhibition season with a seven strikeout performance over five innings; although he did allow three runs (two home runs).
Overall, Pineda struck out 20 batters in 20.1 innings while recording a 3.54 ERA along with a 0.93 WHIP. When we last saw Pineda, in 2017, he won eight games with a 4.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts in 96.1 innings. That is likely more of what we should expect from Pineda this season, and I suspect he will find himself on a lot of streaming lists this season based on favorable match-ups.
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