Baseball isn’t played in the box scores and on the stat sheets. Yes, that is where the results get tabulated, and how performances are measured and understood, but there is more to it than that. Statistics help tell the story of what happened on the field and provide a record of the past. But there is more to it than that.
Everyone, from players, teams, general managers, and fantasy owners, are measured by statistics, but that is the past. If you need to look forward, statistics are just one part of the puzzle. You need to not only understand how the numbers you are looking are computed, but why they matter, and how they were earned. We also need to trust our eyes, as you can’t simply evaluate a player by looking at numbers; they just tell part of the story.
With that being said, each week we will take a look at three statistics from a fantasy perspective and what they mean for the player in question:
11 – Spring Training RBIs for Jose Abreu
Through action on Monday, Abreu has 11 RBI so far this spring. After battling injuries, for the first time in his career, last season, the first baseman appears to be all systems go for the 2019 season. That is evident both by his workload, 41 at bats, and his performance (.317 batting average with two home runs).
Abreu’s success shouldn’t exactly come as a surprise, as his track record has nothing but success. Despite the health issues last season, Abreu still appeared in 128 games, and while all was not lost, it wasn’t a terrible season. Not every player you draft is going to completely live up to all expectations each season, but when they do bust, it’s always a good thing for the results not to be a disaster.
And with a .265 batting average, 22 home runs and 78 RBI last season, Abreu, while his performance didn’t line up to his draft day price, could have been a lot worse. Abreu has a legitimate track record of dependability, he is a .295 career hitter, and last season he also saw his BABIP (.294) take a dip compared to his career mark of .329.
By all indications, Abreu’s power metrics have remained unchanged, and with another season of 150 games, there is no reason why he can’t eclipse 100 RBI for the fifth time and 30 home runs for the fourth time in what will be his sixth season.
Entering the season, over the past month, Abreu is currently the eighth first baseman coming off the board (at a weaker than normal position) with an ADP of 85. You can do a lot worse than Abreu at first base this season, and you have to be careful not to overlook him in 2019.
Five – Spring Training Home Runs for Austin Hays
The easy, and obvious, reaction here, is to ask what more Hays has to do in order to earn a major league job? That question must be asked since the young outfielder was optioned down to Triple-A to begin the 2019 despite his spring success.
To this point, Hays is hitting .351 with five home runs and 13 RBI in 37 spring at bats. However, his next Triple-A bat, will be his first.
In 2017, Hays burst onto the scene by hitting .328 in 16 home runs with 41 RBI in 64 games at High-A. That was followed up by another 64 games in Double-A in which Hays hit .330 with 16 home runs, but this time he drove in 54 runs. That earned the young outfielder with a surprising promotion to Baltimore, but he failed to live up to his lofty expectations. In 20 games, Hays hit just .217 with one home run and eight RBI.
Last season didn’t go as smoothly for Hays as he dealt with some health issues and failed to make his way back to Baltimore. In 66 games at Double-A, Hays hit just .242 but he did have 12 home runs and 43 RBI.
While the easy answer would be to say that Hays deserves to begin the season with the Orioles on the heels of his spring success, and there is speculation that service time manipulation is going on here, Baltimore isn’t exactly making the wrong decision. Hays can now get some experience at the Triple-A level, and Joey Rickard (currently Baltimore’s right fielder) isn’t going to stand in anyone’s way.
Over the past month, Hays is coming off the board with an ADP of 594, but that doesn’t mean we should forget about him. In fact, just the opposite, as he is a player worth stashing and keeping on your radar.
20 – Spring Training Strikeouts for Trevor Richards
After having a solid start to his major league career last season, a 4.42 ERA in 126.1 innings, Richards is certainly putting his best foot forward this spring to earn a spot in the Marlins’ starting rotation.
In five starts, Richards has struck out 20 batters in 19.1 innings while picking up two victories. For the most part, Richards has shut down the opposition to the tune of a 1.86 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP. While performances like this are certainly going to shoot him up draft boards, we still need to exercise some caution with the right-hander.
The good thing, is that in drafts over the past month, Richards’ has been essentially free with an ADP of 490.
What we saw last season from Richards is likely the floor, and while his 9.26 strikeouts per nine innings certainly provide value, his 3.85 walks per nine innings could be a little troubling. That is, if he doesn’t take the necessary strides in 2019.
Yes, his spring training performance does illustrate that is the case, but it’s still too soon to make a definite judgement without seeing how the success translates to the regular season. We know that Richards sports an elite change-up, the key to his success, but he will need to improve his fastball execution to truly take the next step. However, at Richards’ price, and with the strikeout upside, it’s worth taking a look.
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