Welcome to the thunderdome, week three of my waiver and prospect rankings comes with some roster notes, injuries, prospect call ups and some stats that stood out to me, as of April 16th.
I try to hit anything relevant for standard and also deep leagues in my notes; I may miss something, because I’m not perfect, but the goal is to hopefully provide some information that you can use to win your leagues each week.
One important thing to keep in mind is that we are still working with a small sample size, not much has stabilized yet outside of K-BB%.
Roster Notes (as of SAT 4/16):
- Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles still don’t have a fifth starter after John Means just hit the IL, it’s possible we see D.L. Hall or Grayson Rodriguez in the near future.
- Boston Red Sox: The things to note on this roster are that Story is starting slow and that the closer situation has not yet been worked out with Barnes starting off the year injured.
- Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn finally seems to have a spot as the regular DH!!!
- Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker was finally bumped up in the order, to cleanup! Yay!
- Los Angeles Angels: Marsh has moved up the order and Adell is still only playing half the games, we will see if that changes after a 2nd homer on Friday night.
- Minnesota Twins: We will see what happens to the order after the Buxton injury, possibly Jose Miranda will get the call to fill the Kirilloff spot.
- New York Yankees: Severino is back!
- Texas Rangers: The Rangers have only three real starters with Howard going on the IL, it will be interesting to see if Cole Winn is promoted.
- Atlanta Braves: Albies is back at leadoff, waiting for Acuna to return in a week or two.
- Cincinnati Reds: Looks like Greene and Lodolo might stick after strong first starts with good stuff for both of them.
- Milwaukee Brewers: Aaron Ashby has joined the rotation, which makes him an immediate buy in any leagues he’s available in.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Still makes no sense why Roansy isn’t in the rotation or why Diego Castillo isn’t starting or why Oneil Cruz isn’t in the majors… what are they waiting for? Tanking… ugh.
- San Diego Padres: Austin Nola is hitting 2nd and for some reason Abrams and Kim are in a platoon at SS, which I think leads to Tatis playing OF or DH when he comes back this year. We’ll see sometime in the next week or two whether or not Gore is up for good after his first start on Friday, which was mediocre.
Injury Notes (as of SAT 4/16):
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- Ronald Acuna – Is playing simulated games, could be on a rehab assignment next week and could be in major league games as soon as next weekend.
- Kyle Lewis – Sounds like Kyle Lewis is 2-3 weeks ago, rather than a week away as I thought last week.
- Luis Castillo – Castillo is facing live hitters, so he’s probably only a couple of rehab starts away. He should be back by the beginning of May.
- Mike Minor – Minor was pulled from his rehab start with a sore shoulder, which is good news for Greene and Lodolo and bad news for Minor.
- Lucas Sims – Sims is scheduled to be back next weekend against the Cardinals and will most likely immediately move into the closer role.
- Stephen Strasburg – Mike Rizzo mentioned Strasburg could possibly be back by May 1st, but it appears he’s a week or two behind Luis Castillo, so he may be closer to a mid-May return.
- Luis Urias – Urias was supposed to be close to returning by now, but has had a slower recovery from his quad injury and is likely another week away.
- Lucas Giolito – The Sox believe Giolito will only miss two starts, so he should be back after his 10 day IL stint is up.
- Mike Clevinger – Clev had a strong rehab stint today and is likely one or two more rehab outings away from returning to the Padres rotation near the end of the month.
- John Means – Means was placed on the IL with an elbow strain and is expected to miss a long time. We will see what the MRIs tell us in short order.
- Casey Mize – Mize was placed on the IL with an elbow sprain and is expected to return as soon as he is eligible.
- Byron Buxton – Buxton left the game Friday with knee soreness and has no structural damage, for now he will not go on the IL and will be DTD.
- Alex Kirilloff – Kirilloff hit the IL after a slow start due to his wrist injury and it may be an opening for Jose Miranda with Buxton also hitting the IL.
- Spencer Howard – Howard hit the IL with a blister, which means he will likely just miss 1-2 starts, but with only four starters already will the Rangers turn to Cole Winn?
- Javier Baez – Baez went on the 10 day IL with a thumb injury and should be back sometime in week 4.
- Yordan Alvarez – Hit the IL with illness and should be back after 10 days.
- Brandon Nimmo and Dom Smith – Hit the COVID IL.
- Taijuan Walker – Hit the IL with shoulder soreness, but it seems he will be back after 10 days.
- Blake Snell – Snell was placed on the IL with left adductor tightness and Gore brought up, but Snell’s injury doesn’t appear serious, he should be back around the 10 day mark.
- Jack Flaherty – Flaherty is throwing, but is probably still at least 4-6 weeks away from a return in Mid-Late May.
- Ken Giles – Giles appears to be about a month away from a return still from his finger injury, clearing the way for the rest of the bullpen to eat up saves.
- Luis Patino – Patino was placed in the 60 day IL with an oblique strain, meaning he is looking at a June return.
- Jon Gray – Jon Gray should return as soon as he clears the 10 day IL from his blister issue.
- Teoscar Hernandez – Went on the IL with an oblique injury, but these are tricky in baseball and usually 4-8 weeks, so he likely won’t return until late May at the earliest.
Top 10 Standard Waiver Adds:
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- SP Matt Brash (Mariners): Brash is still not up to 75% ownership in Yahoo leagues and this is the guy who is leading in Eno Serris’ Stuff+ so far this year. He has nasty stuff and should be owned in all leagues, if he’s available, got get him.
- 1B Brandon Belt (Giants): For some reason Belt is a FA in a good number of leagues (60% of 12 team roster leagues). He was one of the best players in baseball per plate appearance last year and as long as he is healthy and looks to have continued where he left off last year.
- SP Jesus Luzardo (Marlins): Luzardo had 12 Ks in 5 innings and was absolutely electric in his first start this year and with his pedigree it’s absolutely worth the gamble to add him if available in your league, he currently has a 66% ownership in yahoo leagues.
- OF Jesus Sanchez (Marlins): Sanchez finished strong last year and the only reason he is a free agent in any leagues right now is because he’s on the Marlins and people forget about Marlins players. Sanchez is a repeat on this list for the second time and is only 34% owned in Yahoo leagues despite hitting third for the Marlins in a lineup that produced two of the top RBI guys in baseball last year.
- SP Reid Detmers (Angels): Detmers doesn’t have a pretty ERA two starts in, but his 31.4% CSW and 3.73 SIERA say there should be better days ahead with plenty of strikeouts.
- SP Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Carrasco had a really nice first start that brought us back to 2019, but don’t get too carried away yet. He’s worth adding, but a .077 BABIP tells us this may not be a re-breakout.
- SP Mackenzie Gore (Padres): Gore should be above Carrasco in this list if you are in a keeper or dynasty league, with a solid first start in the majors, despite the lack of strikeouts. His minor league numbers tell us there’s a lot more swing and miss in there and perhaps there were some jitters, but Gore should be serviceable as long as he’s up if this is the worst we are looking at.
- SS Jeremy Pena (Astros): Pena has a power / speed combo that could add up to 20 / 20 and has the everyday gig for the Astros. If you need a SS you can do a lot worse, even with the little slump this week.
- 2B / OF Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Lux has an unreal BABIP so far this year that won’t stick, but his average EV and barrel rate are up to start the year and there’s a significant improvement in plate discipline metricks like BB% and chase rate.
- SP Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Ashby was announced to the Brewers rotation, much earlier than I had expected and as long as he’s a starter he’s worth owning in all leagues.
Top 10 Deep League Adds:
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- SP Dakota Hudson (Cardinals): Hudson won’t get you strikeouts, but if you need innings, wins or just someone to help lower your ERA and WHIP, he has a career 3.14 ERA. Try to get that anywhere else on waivers in 15 team leagues. This is the third week of Dakota Hudson being here.
- SP / RP Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): It’s been announced Hicks will be the Cardinals 5th SP, but I think this is just a piggyback situation until either Flaherty is healthy or Liberatore is ready. Hicks could possibly take the closer role back at some point this year and if you are trying to add someone who might get some saves, there are worse bets than a guy who throws 105 MPH. Hicks is a repeat from week 1 and 2 and in his first appearance this year out of the bullpen, his stuff looked nasty.
- SP Nick Lodolo (Reds): Lodolo had some really nice stuff his first start and even got Steven Kwan to swing and miss, but he had some control issues. We will see coming back around how he harnesses those issues – it also could have just been first start jitters.
- Jhoan Duran (Twins): Duran threw some sick splitters and now everyone wants him. He’s a middle relief guy right now, but after the Twins traded Rogers, there is a potential opening at the back of their bullpen that Duran could possibly win.
- SS / OF Oneil Cruz (Pirates): There’s no guarantee he comes up, but he should be up able to come up within the next week or two and once he’s up hitting golf ball homers, he won’t be available. If you can afford to stash him, get him now.
- SP Jameson Taillon (Yankees): Taillon was nasty in his first start and is still available in a bunch of leagues. If you need a starter, I would give him a shot to see if he’s finally healthy again. Don’t forget how good he was back in 2018.
- SP Nick Martinez (Padres): Talking about 2018, we actually haven’t seen Martinez since 2017, but he made a lot of changes overseas and a 38.6% CSW is something that opens your eyes (even if it is only one start so far). He’s definitely worth gambling on in deeper leagues.
- SP Andrew Heaney (Dodgers): The Dodgers are one of those teams that can make pitchers with bad mechanics pitch well again and their latest project is Andrew Heaney, who put up a 38.8% CSW in his first start with his new sweeper pitch. Looking forward to see what’s coming next from Heaney.
- RP Dylan Coleman (Royals): Coleman has been a shutdown reliever to start the year and throws heat. He has the potential to be next in line for the closer spot if Barlow loses it and in deeper leagues, these are the guys that need to be on your radar.
- SP Miles Mikolas (Cardinals): Mikolas had a rough first start, but his second start was stellar and he was spotting everything up with excellent command. He looked like the Miles Mikolas of 2018 / 2019 and that’s a serviceable deep league starter.
Top 10 Re-Draft Prospects (not promoted yet):
- SS Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Cruz should be up as soon as Super 2 passes as long as he performs at AAA. His AAA stats in a small sample size don’t matter much, but he does have 3 steals already at AAA, so it’s good to see the speed maintained even though the power was the talk of ST. Estimated Promotion Date: Late April
- C Adley Rutschman (Orioles): Rutschman suffered an injury which gives the Orioles an excuse to keep him down and gain another year of eligibility. He’s recovering nicely, but there is no time table and he has yet to see minor league action. Estimated Promotion Date: Mid-May
- 3B Jose Miranda (Twins): Miranda has already shown everything he can in the minors, he’s ready for the majors. The Twins pretty obviously sent him down to earn another year of eligibility. It will be interesting to see if the Kirilloff and Buxton injuries advance his time table even though super 2 has yet to hit. Estimated Promotion Date: Late April / Early May
- OF Alek Thomas (D-Backs): Thomas was competing for a starting OF spot in Arizona and the only thing blocking him right now is the tandem of David Peralta, Pavin Smith and Christian Walker. The D-backs have been atrocious so far and Thomas has been alright at AAA. I think as soon as he gets hot and surpasses super 2 status, he will be up with the big league club. Estimated Promotion Date: Early May
- SP Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles): The Orioles aren’t competing this year and have no reason to call G-Rod up, but he will be up at some point this year. He will likely come up a couple months after Rutschman and Hall adapt to their callups. He has been a beast so far this spring and the Means injury could speed up the call ups for G Rod and Hall. Estimated Promotion Date: June
- SP D.L. Hall (Orioles): The Orioles mentioned after sending D.L. Hall down to minors camp and he was throwing 100 MPH heat that he would be back soon. He still hasn’t seen AAA action (or any action this year), so there is the off chance they were saving his bullets for the majors as soon as super 2 passes. One has to wonder if the Means injury speeds up Hall or Grayson Rodriguez. Estimated Promotion Date: Late April / Early May
- OF Riley Greene (Tigers): Greene would have made the team Opening Day more than likely had he not broken his foot at the end of Spring. Now he’s looking for a return in June – July after his 6-8 week recovery time, plus a few weeks in the minors rehabbing. The Tigers also traded for Austin Meadows, who will likely take Miggy’s spot at DH once Greene comes back. Estimated Promotion Date: June
- C M.J. Melendez (Royals): Melendez was sent down to get more practice defensively around the horn so that they can keep his bat in the lineup when he gets the final callup. Being blocked by Salvy isn’t good for your service time. Estimated Promotion Date: Late May
- SP Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals): This promotion will likely depend on the health of Jack Flaherty as he recovers from his shoulder injury. If Flaherty has a setback or has troubles coming back or the Cardinals suffer another injury in the rotation, Liberatore should be up in short order. He could be up as soon as he passes the Super 2 with Hicks being a stop gap for the Cards to gain another year of eligibility. Estimated Promotion Date: May
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Meyer has been nearly as good as Grayson Rodriguez in his minors starts and has shown AAA is no problem. Elieser Hernandez has not been good this year, so ideally the Marlins will find a trade partner for him or for Pablo Lopez in the early summer, then promote Meyer. Estimated Promotion Date: June
Honorable Mention: UTIL Vidal Brujan (Rays), SP Cade Cavalli (Nationals), SP George Kibry (Mariners), OF Brennan Davis (Cubs), 1B Triston Casas (Red Sox), 2B Nolan Gorman (Cardinals)
Graduated (Opening Day): Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, C.J. Abrams, Roansy Contreras, Josh Lowe, Hunter Greene, Matt Brash, Nick Lodolo, Bryson Stott
Graduated (Week 2): Mackenzie Gore and Tommy Romero
Moves I’ve Made (last week):
- CBS Memorial Magazine League: I added Steve Kwan for $11, Rich HIll for $1 and Tyler Glasnow straight to the IL for $0. I also added Nimmo before he hit the IL for $0, but had one too many players and sent him straight back to waivers.
- I have one pending waiver claim this week and I won’t be too disappointed if I don’t hit it.
- TGFBI: No claims made.
- I’m putting some waterfall bids on some hitters though, because Castillo isn’t playing for some reason for Pittsburgh.
- Dynasty Home League (12 Team): Dropped Drew Rasmussen for Aaron Ashby after his start was announced.
- Ottoneu: Considering dropping a $3 Rowan Wick, but have not yet won a claim for a replacement.
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