Baseball isn’t played in the box scores and on the stat sheets. Yes, that is where the results get tabulated, and how performances are measured and understood, but there is more to it than that. Statistics help tell the story of what happened on the field and provide a record of the past. But there is more to it than that.
Everyone, from players, teams, general managers, and fantasy owners, are measured by statistics, but that is the past. If you need to look forward, statistics are just one part of the puzzle. You need to not only understand how the numbers you are looking are computed, but why they matter, and how they were earned. We also need to trust our eyes, as you can’t simply evaluate a player by looking at numbers; they just tell part of the story.
With that being said, each week we will take a look at three statistics from a fantasy perspective (through action on Monday) and what they mean for the player in question:
43.5% – Eugenio Suarez’s Hard Hit Rate
At this point in the season, especially considering the way things have gone in so far in 2019, having an early round disappointment is quite commonplace. In fact, if you only have one, or even two, and are in mostly in good health, you should consider yourselves one of the lucky ones.
A quick look at Suarez says that he has been a disappoint so far in 2019, and in fact I am considering trading him in a dynasty league, but I would wait before making a move you might regret.
With a .235 batting average, your initial impression of Suarez is not going to be a positive one. While I don’t want to state the obvious, it is still early in the season (stop me if you have heard this), and the sample size is small, and all it will take is one or two games for that to turn around. The fact that Suarez has a .342 on base percentage certainly makes me feel better about the situation as well.
If a player averages five home runs a month over the six months of the season, that equates to a 30 home run campaign. And with a week left in April, that is the pace Suarez is on. However, with just nine RBI, he does leave something to be desired in that category, and the batting average is partially to blame. With just a .256 BABIP though, the track record for improvement is there for the .263 career hitter (.315 BABIP). Just don’t expect a repeat of the .283 he hit last season, although there is nothing wrong with that.
When we get into the advanced metrics, Suarez’s hard hit rate shows that he hasn’t lost much from his 34 home run and 104 performance a year ago. Additionally, Suarez’s barrel rate is up from 9.7% to 12.5%. At the same time, we have to note that his exit velocity (88.9 from 91.2) and launch angle (11.4 from 14.7) are down. But again, with the five home runs, I’m not all that concerned.
61.2% – Christian Walker’s Hard Hit Rate
When it comes down to it, whatever advanced metric we chose to to use to look at the Arizona first baseman, paints him in a positive light. The former fourth round pick from 2012, he is 28 years old, had never gotten a chance at the major league level to show what he can do until this season. And it certainly appears that he is unwilling to give that up.
Entering the season, Walker had appeared in 61 games and had just six home runs and nine RBI. Prior to Tuesday’s action, Walker was hitting .347 with seven home runs, 13 RBI, 13 runs scored, and as a nice bonus, three stolen bases.
First, let’s just eliminate the stolen bases, as while we aren’t complaining, that is not something I would really bank on. A .429 BABIP helps to bring the batting back down to earth, but again, it’s really the power we are after. Well that, and Walker’s overall skill set as a hitter. And that appears to be here for good even if his pace does inevitably slow.
To this point, Walker has a 20.4% barrel rate, 95.9 miles per hour exit velocity, 14.3 degree launch angle, and that 61.2% hard hit rate. It’s not exactly a secret that those are all substantially above the league average.
While I’m not going to overpay, Walker is someone I’m buying whenever possible, just not at a premium.
0 – Barrels Against Max Fried So Far This Season
It’s just 26 innings of work so far this season, but it is impressive nonetheless that Fried hasn’t had one ball barreled against him yet. The young left-hander is 3-0 thus far in 2019 while posting a 1.38 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Eventually, a hitter will barrel a ball up against Fried, but we have to at least pay attention to the fact that it hasn’t happened yet and that there is a lot to like about his ratios. Additionally, Fried’s hard hit rate of 29.5% is also below the league average.
While Fried has just 18 strikeouts so far this season, he has proven to be a strikeout per inning pitcher to this point in his minor league career. We have to note that Fried has a FIP of 3.14 and 4.10 xFIP, but he also has a 55.3% ground ball rate.
There will be likely more good than bad when it comes to Fried, but things can only go down from here. At the same time, the left-hander has passed the eye test so far.
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