This was the first year I’ve had the pleasure of participating in TGFBI and I’m hoping to play again next year. It was a great experience. I made some friends in the industry (they kicked my butt) and learned a lot. I was in League 20 with some familiar names such as Alex Chamberlain and Yancy Eaton (currently 1st in the league and 38th overall). The season started off well for me, I even hung around the Top 50 Overall during the first month. But some of my draft picks didn’t pan out, the injury bug hit me, and made some huge FAAB mistakes that put my team at a disadvantage. Even though there is a month left in the season, I’m pretty much out of FAAB and out of the running in 10th place. Here’s a review of what happened, and what I’d change knowing how things played out.
KBS
What I did:
I felt there was a strong top 6, but then I thought 7 – 15 formed a bit of a glob. So for my KBS I chose 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 then 15, 14, etc to get a better pick in the 2nd round. The result was me picking at the turn, which at the time is what I thought I wanted. I ended up taking Manny Machado and Paul Goldschmidt at 15/16. Looking back on it, Machado and Goldy didn’t have season’s worthy of 1st and 2nd round picks. However, even at the time of the draft I had regret about my KBS.
What I would have done differently:
While there was plenty of talent available at the turn, it put me in an uncomfortable position. The elite pitchers like Scherzer and deGrom went just before me, but it felt like it would be a reach to take someone like Bauer or Corbin that early. So I went with two hitters and ended up having to reach at the 3/4 turn for pitching (Taillon/Clevinger). If I had to do it again, I would have simply set my KBS 1-15 and taken an elite pitcher early.
The Draft
As you can probably already tell, my draft didn’t start off well. Right after the draft I wouldn’t say I was excited about my draft, but I was comfortable. I started off Machado, Goldschmidt, Taillon, and Clevinger. Machado has not lived up to expectation. Goldy was lethargic most of the season and just recently started looking like his former self. Taillon’s season was lost to injury but really, he wasn’t looking great before the injury. I bought into the narrative that he increased his slider usage and it bit me. Clevinger missed a pretty big chunk of the season with an injury, but has looked great when he’s been on the mound. That’s only the first four picks so it really doesn’t tell the whole story, but those are four critical picks that I pretty much whiffed on.
Other things that went wrong:
Dee Gordon in the 7th: I thought I was getting a good deal on a bounce back candidate here. I thought Gordon’s poor performance was largely due to injury and that if he could stay healthy he could provide 40+ steals. In the first month of the season it was looking like I was going to be right. Through the first 30 games of the season Gordon was hitting .306 with 8 SB and even had a couple of HR. After that, Gordon fell victim to injuries again and hasn’t been productive.
Andrew McCutchen in the 9th: I felt really good about Cutch hitting in Philly. I could blame it all on the injury, but Cutch was still having a pretty mediocre season prior to hitting the IL. In over 250 ABs, Cutch was hitting .256 with only 10 HR and 2 SB.
Stephen Piscotty in the 10th: I was optimistic because despite having very similar 2018 production to Michael Conforto, Piscotty was going much later in drafts. I thought I was getting a discount, but Piscotty has battled injuries and just hasn’t repeated the production from last year.
Jackie Bradley Jr. in the 13th: I bought into the narrative of his swing change. JBJ was productive in the 2nd half of 2018 and it looked attributable to working with J.D. Martinez’s hitting coach. I had dreams of a 30/20 season, even predicted he’d be better than Andrew Benintendi. I had a rude awakening. JBJ had a couple absolutely dreadful months and I dropped him. He did hit a hot streak and I ended up getting him in FAAB, but his 2019 didn’t come close to what I had hoped for.
Joe Musgrove in the 14th: Musgrove began the season with a couple great starts, It looked like it was all clicking. Then he had a couple ratio-killing starts. Those 4 starts paint a good picture of Musgrove’s 2019 season. I never knew when to start him. He’d throw a shutout against a good team, then give up 6 runs in less than 2 innings.
What went right:
Josh Donaldson in the 8th: I was pretty happy with Donaldson falling to me in the 8th. I thought he’d produce if he could just stay healthy and he’s done both. As of today, Donaldson has a .262/.381/.535 slash line with 34 HR.
Trey Mancini in the 15th: I took Mancini as my CI and was hoping for an empty 30 HR season. The first month of the season he was looking like he’d easily surpass those expectations. He’s since slowed the pace, but has still put together a really solid season and as of today he’s hitting .274 with 29 HR.
Ketel Marte in the 16th: Marte was the best player I drafted, and not even with respect to round. He has performed better than any other player I drafted. I thought he had upside, but I’d be lying if I expected he’d do this. Marte is sporting a .324/.384./.584 slash line with 29 HR and 9 SB with a month left to go. He’s a legit stud and he surely won’t go in the 16th round next year.
Luke Weaver in the 20th: I know he’s missed a ton of time due to injury, but I didn’t have to invest much in Weaver. Prior to the injury he was looking like a steal. After 62 innings Weaver had an ERA of 3.06 (3.10 FIP), a 1.11 WHIP, and a 9.82 K/9. Since he opted for rest instead of surgery, I’m a little nervous about next year. You can probably get him at a discount though.
Jeff Samardzija in the 23rd: I drafted Samardzija just hoping to get an innings eater. He pitches in San Francisco. In the 23rd I felt like it was a low-risk investment. He’s been more than serviceable for most of the year. Through over 150 innings he’s got a 3.61 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. The K’s aren’t really there, but as a late-round flyer, Samardzija has been a pleasant surprise.
FAAB
My draft didn’t go the way I wanted, but my mismanagement of FAAB is the reason I’m surrendering a month early. I took a lot of heat online for dropping Greg Holland in the first FAAB run, which happened to be the same day he was named the Diamondbacks closer. I could have played ignorance and said I didn’t hear the news, but that wasn’t true. I took him with my last pick just because of his name. I was planning on dropping him for Bryse Wilson (which didn’t work out). When I found out he was named the closer, I got excited because I thought people would spend 20% of their FAAB on a bad pitcher (they did). My rationale was that I had Kenley Jansen and Brad Hand already and that Holland would likely be benched for streamers most of the time, so might as well get some FAAB off the board. Holland had a decent amount of Saves, but poor ratios. Me dropping him ultimately didn’t factor into where I fell in the standings.
What did have an impact was that I spent over 50% my FAAB on 3 players: Jake Odorizzi ($57), Michael Chavis ($131), and Carter Kieboom ($357). Odorizzi has had a solid season, the issue was that he was torched in his first start after I added him. I was impatient and dropped him without getting any production. Chavis looked like a good buy at the start. He was showing some real power, but that K% caught up to him and he’s struggled since. Now, the FAAB move that absolutely handcuffed me was spending over 35% of my FAAB on Carter Kieboom, who was sent back to AAA shortly after. It was a homer move. I saw Kieboom play in the AFL in November and just loved the swing and thought he’d be great, but he wasn’t up long and it’s been a wasted roster spot for most of the year.
Next Year
Despite making some massive mistakes, I had a great time playing in TGFBI this year. It was a huge challenge and I really look forward to improving on my performance next year.
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