The offenses came to play in Game 5, though Atlanta got most of their work done in the first inning, while the Astros plugged along throughout the game to close the gap before pulling ahead for good. With the Series heading back to Houston both teams have a chance to win this thing, but the road for the Braves is that much easier needing to win only one.
The day off certainly helps some of these relievers who have been rode so hard so far, and some of the best like Tyler Matzek, Will Smith and Ryan Pressly have gotten a rare two-day respite. Atlanta did a good job of pushing workload upon their weaker members in more recent days, while Houston was forced into riding their best once it became win or go home. This leaves the Braves with virtually every reliever of consequence fully available to work, but most of their bulkier guys are unavailable. Ironically, this means the larger the deficit the more likely Max Fried will be pushed deeper into the game. A narrow lead early on may necessitate a turn toward the pen where the team should feel confident covering four to five innings. Houston does not have the luxury of choice requiring the bats to show up early and often to ease the pressure on their young starter Luis Garcia. Bridge workers like Jake Odorizzi or Cristian Javier should figure prominently in the middle innings, but an early tilt in their favor would make it very easy to carry those weapons into the seventh game, if they can get there. Despite heavy recent workloads it is unlikely the team would avoid using their very good relievers like Pressly or Kendall Graveman or Phil Maton, though each should be expected to be a bit diminished.
Verdict: The model prefers Atlanta, while the market sees the home team as the favorite. This represents an excellent opportunity for value. Before the Series started these pages predicted Atlanta in six games, and there seems little reason to back off that now.
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