Catching Up – How I did in the First Half and More Bold Predictions
Let’s take some time to recap what foolish things I might have written in the first half.
Surprises from the First Quarter
I noted a player from each position that was in the top 10 at the quarter mark of the year. Let’s see where those players are now that we have hit the All-Star break.
Alex Avila – Alex is still hanging in there, sitting at #7 for catchers. I feel like Chuck Anderson is lurking to not something about the randomness of catcher production. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 20%
Ryan Zimmerman – He’s in the top five today, and right now its hard to not see him being top 10 at the end of the year. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 60%
Jedd Gyroko – Jedd is no longer in the top 10, he is down to 13. The Cardinals have struggled, in the first half and in that Gyroko has come back down to earth. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 30%
Eugenio Suarez – Suarez has also fallen off considerably. He is now the 18th ranked guy at 3rd. The laws of averages will have their way with us all. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 40%
Chris Owings – Still in the top five. The humidor isn’t coming, so no reason to why away. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 70%
Billy Hamilton – Still in the top 10 largely because of the weighting of the steals. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 60%
Aaron Judge – He is number one in the outfield. I can’t imagine even the biggest Yankee’s fan could of see this first half coming. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 100%
Michael Conforto – He is faded due to injury, and the Mets remembering that they don’t like playing him. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 80%.
Alex Wood – In the top five for starters. When Wood has pitched he has been great. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 40%.
Brandon Kinzler – Ok, I was among the biggest of the Kinzler non-believers, but he is still in the top 10. For me nothing has changed though. Still hard to buy on relievers that don’t strike anyone out. Chances of staying in the top 10 given 0%
What Happened to the Blue Jays
I won’t rehash the whole article, but I do want to touch on if the offense would come back this year. I didn’t think it would, and it hasn’t. They are currently the 5th worst in the majors, and 2nd worst in the AL. They are currently at 365, if they do the same in the second half, they will finish the year with 161 less runs then they scored three years back, in an MLB where runs and HR’s are up dramatically. I expect things will get worse for the Blue Jays before they get better, and I don’t think the better will be this year.
Vince Velasquez, What is he and what can he be?
Velasquez got injured not too long after I wrote my article. He has only made 10 starts this year. His numbers aren’t good right now, the ERA, FIP and xFIP are all high, and the HR/FBi is over 21%. He might have a good run in him in the second half once he gets healthy, but buyers beware.
Should You Still Love Ol’ man Grandy
I noted back in April that I didn’t expect Curtis Granderson to fall off this year, and he hasn’t. He is on pace to do almost exactly what he did last year. He’s on pace for 26 HR, and score 84 runs. He’s still got value, and can help you if you need OF depth.
I don’t think I made any extremely bold statements in the first half, so this led to me being more right than wrong with what my expectations were on the players that I talked about. So in doing so it sounds like this is the time to make bold predictions. So here are three:
1) Aaron Judge doesn’t finish the year with the most HR’s in the majors. This will be the year that Giancarlo Stanton finally stays healthy, and takes the crown.
2) The Brewers will hold on and win the NL Central. I know that not many outside of Brew City, but I’m drinking the golden kool-aid.
3) The Twins win the last wild card. With the AL Central being the dumpster fire that it has been in the first half, and with things to only get worse in the second half with the Tigers selling, the Twins will keep scoring runs and find their way into the last playoff spot.