Every year we hear about the guys who are great buy low candidates. What this usually means is these are the guys that you can get late rounds or low price. Or in other words, the bargain basement guys. It is very valuable information that helps you fill out your roster. It is where you see things like is Profar going to be a much worse than Glyber as his ADP would suggest?
I also like taking a look at guys that I’d be willing to overpay for. What I mean by that is, if player A is not going to make it back to me, or I need to spend $5 more than what his going rate is, I still want him. Basically, I think these guys are going to do better than what the market currently says. Last year I was on the Ozzie Albies and walker Buehler bandwagons that turned in solid results. I’ve also missed in past years, like when I thought Amir Garrett would turn into a usable fantasy SP. Overall, the guys I’m willing to pay up for have high enough floors to where a miss is not going to sink my team. This year I am really high on Alex Bregman.
I know what you’re thinking, he’s currently 16th off the board on ESPN ADP, 12th on FantasyPros composite and 11th in NFBC. However, if someone were to take him 5-7 I wouldn’t call them crazy. Last season, Bregman was tied for 5th in the league with Yelich at a wRC+ of 157. Steamer has him projected for 99 runs and 93 RBI this year. He’s projected to be tied with Yelich again in wRC+ at 140 (7th). If Bregman breaks his slow start streak then he will be a favorite for MVP.
As for stolen bases, last season the Astros started off not running at all. It was an obvious club strategy. Then they began to loosen the reins on guys. After that, Bregman played the season with a loose body in his arm. Odds are good that created concern for doing anything to bang it. I expect to see a rebound in SB to the mid teens. This would make him a 5 category contributor, which is what you really want from a top 5-7 pick.
Nothing in his time in the majors has said his floor isn’t 20 HR, 7 SB, 85 runs/RBI with a .275 average and a .340 OBP. True, that is not a top flight pick, but I truly believe he has a ceiling of 40+ HR, 110 run, 100 RBI, 20 SB, .310 avg and .400 OBP. Thats Mike Trout numbers. Will he get those every year like Trout? Highly doubtful. Ok, he’s not going to do that. However, it is enough of a possibility to at least consider him anywhere in the 1st round, knowing the worst case scenario isn’t a team killer. (I should take a moment to mention the fantasy baseball golden rule, the Trout rule. If Trout is available you take him. End of story.)
I get it, taking him at say 6th means you’re passing up some heavy hitters. I’m not big on taking the top SP’s in the 1st round though, so Scherzer can be skipped. I think it’s safe to say we see some regression from Yelich, not a lot, but enough to move him down. J.D. Martinez is great and worth his price. However, Harper, Judge and Stanton are all going in the 2nd round with Benintendi going in the 3rd. You can apply the same logic to Acuna adding in the fact that a second-year guy is likely to have at least a bump in the road as the league adjusts to him. Throw in the strategy decision, trying to decide between Arenado’s power and no speed, Turners speed and no power or Bregman’s step down from both combo and you can take him 6th right there.
The multi-position eligibility is important to point out. Even with the great depth at SS Bregman will be a top tier player at the position. This allows you to take a look at a player like Rendon two rounds later. Then even later grab a Profar for an amazing fantasy infield. You could also view him as the infield anchor and go Harper and Cole in rounds 2 and 3, knowing you can wait an extra round filling out some of your other infield positions.
A high floor, astronomical ceiling and positional versatility are all advantages Bregman has over other players. I haven’t even mentioned the fact that he put up a great 2018 season while playing with an injured arm. So it appears we can count toughness in his column as well. All of this points to the fact that even at Bregman’s current ADP you can still go higher and not feel robbed.
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